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Showing results for tags 'black swan'.
so, it looks like the china property bubble has burst i'm thinking this will dramatically slow down chinese economic growth this will impact on chinas trading partners possibly leading to a stock market corrections (dow & s&p looking a bit peaky at the moment) less money flowing out of china and into "prime london" (i.e. overpriced new builds) prime london crash filters down to the wider market any thoughts?
So - been a long term bear happy railing against overpriced housing. I have just bought. Feel like a bit of traitor to HPC, but the facts stacked up for me. Bought in Australia, and took a small mortgage which will be all paid off by next March (could do it now but do not want to liquidate some investments at this time). A near 1000 meter plot, with an established 4 bed family house in good nick. Very good area - buy the cheapest house in the best area was the guide. Under 400k English. Got more than 10% off asking price, after hard negotiation - had three properties in the running where all the agents knew we were serious about going for the one with the best discount - we didn't 'fall in love' with a house, just talked numbers. The agents talked the sellers down. Similar properties in the road have gone for >480k english in the past year. By the way, the banks were all trying to push debt on me. I was offered over $2,000,000 by two different banks. I only took 10% of that. The salespeople genuinely, genuinely could not understand it. The Australia people's reaction to the last budget really did it for me. First suggestion in 3 governments of turning off the magic money tree supply of benefits and freebies, and it was like someone had killed their puppies. I see Australia going the same way as the UK - voters not understanding or wanting economic reality, so more and more easy credit and gvt borrowing, plus non stop support for the housing market. Last time the housing market wobbled, Rudd opened the floodgates to the Chinese - I do not believe ANY gvt will let the market collapse now unless there is truely worldwide disaster. They will have studies the UK and HTB, QE, etc, are all on the table. Bastards. The other major push factor is my worry that if it all goes Lehman style whilst I had 400k sitting in banks around the world, I could see the value evaporating through either theft or inflation/taxes. I wanted some assets outside the main systems. So - the house is large enough for all the family, plus room in the garden for veggies and maybe a couple of chooks. If the world doesn't collapse in the short term, I can keep earning here in Hong Kong, and saving like a *******. If it does collapse, I will have a base with no debt and enough space of a bit of self sufficiency. Long term, it's close enough to a major Oz City (under 60 minute rail commute) and on a rail line that we can be up for employment in a range of industries. Finally, yes, I am going to rent it out until we return to Australia. I am becoming "BTL scum landlord". However, you won't hear of me not paying for repairs or skimping on stuff - having rented for years I have empathy. This is not a money making venture, buying is a defensive mechanism against the rigged game. Yield is expected to be about 3%, taking into account 15% voids and a 5% sinking fund. Another bear has turned. I'll still stay on HPC, for I do believe housing is the critical issues for my kids and grandkids... *sits back and waits for the abuse*