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  1. It was September last year, on a US visit and watching Trump speaking as a candidate for the first time, that it became a certainty to me that he (or at least that thing on his head) would win the race for US President 2016. Trump will win for one single reason alone: A BREXIT-like "stick it to the establishment"-attitude of the disenchanted. For those of you, who have doubts, read the following, which was written by no one less than Michael Moore: 5 Reasons Why Trump Will Win http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/ What will Trump's election do for house prices? I think the impact could be negative and massive. Trump has recently uttered statements ranging from a conditionality of the NATO treaty (depending on financial contributions) to the questioning of the US's membership with and adherence to the WTO. Other statements included threats of additional trade tariffs for countries from Mexico to China. Election of Trump will be unexpected (like BREXIT) and add great economic uncertainty to what is a pretty uncertain state of the world already. I cannot see how Britain or Europe will benefit from Trump's isolationist policies if/when he will start putting them into practice. This uncertainty and the economic fallout for export orientied industries with a focus on the US could be massive, and - no doubt - will not be a positive for house prices. As for the US, most citizens are so used to cheap tat from China - be it iPhones or the $1 shelves at Target and Walmart - that they will experience a huge wake-up call if trading with China should get rocky. Indeed, this will be an inflationary shock and not pretty, but it will be the kind of inflation that will not help asset prices.
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