R K

Boris interruptus

Boris pulls out

hopefully this wont turn into yet another gold thread. Insurance is a rentier industry. It is a cost. A drag on performance. Far better to self-insure. As I said, asset allocations are mostly irrelevant in any event.

I dont understand the case for P2P at all. Agree re gov bonds, gold. Cash I like as a hedge, to provide optionality & to mitigate equity volatility In very long run asset allocation less important (almost irrelevant) compared to fees.

Not Boris Emily Ashton ‏@elashton 27m27 minutes ago "Last time Boris did a deal with the Germans, he came back with three nearly new water cannons" - SLAPDOWN from Theresa May 41 retweets 31 likes

Boris is dead in the water. Its already over. hes done. May is next Tory leader & PM.

Graeme Wearden ‏@graemewearden 5m5 minutes ago Theresa May now odds-on to be next Tory leader on Betfair. Boris's odds are lengthening fast.... May Merkel Clinton (& Adele)

Buller v T0sser Looks like May then.

Nest of vipers Neil Hume ‏@humenm Ouch. Gove knifes Boris as Tory civil war continues.

Gove declares. Cant support Boris (after his Mail journo wife told him Dacre wants him to run) So he will be Dacres man. Murdoch appears to have (at least) 2 horses in the race.

11 months out of 11. FTSE up 13.5% (plus divs) since Feb low

Tories should pick the next leader in an Apprentice style contest Boris Theresa and Andrea selling fish from the back of a van would be a perfect test

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/29/mark-carney-bank-of-england-live-broadcast-statement-soothe-market 4pm, London time

how will he get into the country until Boris has sorted out the new points system? Ive heard (true) govt actually only has 1 competent trade negotiator, but source believed that may be an exaggeration.

Ok. My impression was WICAO rents with a view to buying with cash in Malta (or similar) when FIREd. But Im not especially concerned with individual stories rather general principles.

EU 27 press release http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2016/06/29-tusk-remarks-informal-meeting-27/

No problem, I shall let you work out inflation adjusted & real investment return numbers. But you will also have to escalate the number by house price increases too since these FIRE plans seem to involve renting rather than owning. Im not exactly sure why since over a 30 year period it would seem more sensible - to me - for a couple to simply take out a mortgage and pay it off, thus hedging out the housing risk entirely. In fact I would go so far as to suggest that the best FIRE plan for a couple on average earnings is to buy a house in the first post-recession dip they encounter, save tax efficiently, ensure they have full state pension contribs & then simply enjoy their lives. That would result in a couple having say an average price house mortgage free after 25-30 years (earlier if pay mtge down more rapidly), 2x state pension pots worth £8k each inflation linked or £250k each capitalised value at c 3% discount rate (more if rates are lower) = c £750,000 joint assets plus whatever savings/pensions are achieved as appropriate. Who knows they may even get to buy an iphone or enjoy the occasional cup of coffee during the best 30 years of their life of penury.

As I said in my original response to WICAOs opening posts Im not being critical at all of his FIRE plan. Simply that it is impossible for someone on average earnings to FIRE on a c £1,000,000 pot. Lets keep it simple:- If FIRE = 10 years before NRD that allows approx 30 years to accumulate a nominal £1,000,000. Im going to wilfully ignore both inflation & nominal returns on wages, consumption & savings (for simplicity) Thus £1,000,000 / 30 years = £33k pa savings. Since this is > average earnings it is axiomatically impossible. That is all.

Why dont you start a new thread every day asking why article 50 hasnt been invoked

Operation #Bre-entry has already commenced. Merkel sitting on her hands waiting. Boris#/gove/hannan backtracking - admitting Brexit doesnt mean immigration numbers will necc. fall. Civil Service high command kicking Article 50 into long grass. Labour kicking out Corbyn This is the reality of it. etc etc

Volatility is usually a long term buying opp. Media "explanations" are irrelevant narrative. 40% mark downs were a gift. Personally I am now waiting for a much deeper correction overall to load up over coming months. Im sceptical Friday was it & in any event spreads were too wide & liquidity too low.

Alex Dellal, the property expert who helped fund Chappell, was very impressive in his evidence session yesterday. Only looked to be in is 20s but I cant recall anyone ever being so calm and capable in a committee session. My thought was it was because he was being very honest & open. Something palpably lacking in most other respondents. My other thought was just how much money is made trading prime London commercial property.

Im not sure. Was it when Labour started to talk about it? ISIS? SYRIA?

I dont think so. But then Ive been arguing for germany to be forced to change tack or be ejected from EZ for last 5 years. Italy looks like potential proximate catalyst.

Samuel Tombs ‏@samueltombs The EU won't compromise. But pub. opinion will change as economy falters. A 2nd ref would yield a different response