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House Price Crash Forum


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About the_skeptic

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  1. It's the Johnnie Walker bottling plant in Kilmarnock that's closing.
  2. Might I humbly suggest you avail yourself of a copy of the book too. The Burton/Hurt film is actually pretty good as film adaptations of books go but, as ever, the book is far more comprehensive and rich in it's ideas and insights.
  3. when you get the deal ticket up there should be a box for 'currency' underneath the 'amount/pt' box, at least it's always been there for me. It is a drop down menu of currencies to denominate the bet in. as for the which way round the quote is thing - after some frantic scribbling and calculator work i'm starting to think you might actually be on to something and i've been talking b0llocks (wouldn't be the first time!). Will keep going over the numbers till I hopefully get some sense out of them!
  4. I agree you are best diversifying in to a 'basket' of currencies - something which is far easier (and probably cheaper) to achieve through spreadbetting than it would be by physically moving money around. I currently have GBP hedging in roughly these proportions: Yen 50% USD 25% Euro 10% CHF 10% NOK 5%
  5. ah right, I think I see what you're getting at. The key thing is not which way round the price is quoted, but rather which currency you denominate the bet in. At IG (and maybe others i don't know) you have the option to denominate the bet in the currency of your choosing, so you can go short GBP/USD denominated in USD. The basic rule of thumb is always denominate the bet in the currency you are going long of. From what you say you already appear to understand why. When I was first researching spread betting on currencies someone pointed this out to me and at first I thought they'd gone bonkers.. then after a few hours and several examples I got it!
  6. yes I did mean that long USD/GBP is exactly the same as short GBP/USD, although I'm all ears to be convinced otherwise by evictee. Si1's point is still valid though that you obviously do have a certain level of counterparty risk (although the way round the price is quoted obviously makes zero difference to that) I personally use IGIndex - part of IGGroup, who are a FTSE 250 company.. so keeping an eye on their share price (IGG) should give you some sort of heads up as to any imminent solvency issues.. I would agree that spread betting is probably not really much protection against a sudden catastrophic armageddon type collapse in the pound, but so long as any decline remains orderly (like we have seen in the past year) it can hedge you quite well - and being tax free is good too!
  7. Yes it is 'Greater London' - SEP price matches here: http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/quarterlyregionalcomments.asp
  8. for anyone with outstanding house prices positions.. IGIndex also offer house price futures (although not as long dated as spreadfair did) current quotes UK House Price SETTLED SEP-08 171.4 171.4 UK House Price DEC-08 159.1 162.7 UK House Price MAR-09 148.1 152.7 London House Price SETTLED SEP-08 269.7 269.7 London House Price DEC-08 250.6 255.6 London House Price MAR-09 238.6 244.6 I guess could be useful if you wish to re-open your positions with IG, or as a guide for what spreadfair's closing prices should be.
  9. ...and they very much were, although only in an ongoing attempt to get the thing off the ground. spreadfair was actually a decent idea and even quite well run. But it just never reached the critical mass of genuine liquidity from real punters to make it a success like the betfair model it was based on. I think they gave it a good shot but there just wasn't the market there to support a sports spread betting exchange business in the end.
  10. hi, which spread betting firm do you use? are they better than others or are they all much of a muchness?
  11. guessing, but could it be because we have been switching out of other dollar denominated assets such as MBS's, fannie/freddie paper etc and in to treasuries? if not then what have we been selling to buy these treasuries?
  12. Yeah, I was really choking on my proverbial cornflakes reading that article. It completely subverts Taleb's ideas to try to make the opposite point to his - that, like winning the lottery twice in one week, this is just a freak 'chance' event that could happen anytime. Wheras Taleb's point is that it is not freak, nor chance - it is the direct and probably inevitable result of a long build up of accelerating risk taking by people who didn't even realise they were taking risks.
  13. TheLaw, or MongerofDoom, any chance of an up to date list of bank's CDS prices?
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