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ours brun

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Everything posted by ours brun

  1. This seems to be similar to Japan's experience over the last 15 years or so. A massive property bubble during which Japanese banks were the largest in the world followed by years of property declining in value for 13 straight years. During this time many of the Japanese banks have either folded or had to merge (e.g. Sumitomo with Mitsui) as they have been crippled by high levels of debt. Don't think that it can't happen here too!!
  2. A brilliant bit of analysis. It shows that the reasons for the property boom and the inevitable Gotterdammerung are quite complex. Interesting to see how the UK compares to other countries in respect of these reasons. Some countries: e.g. Holland, Spain, Australia and part of the US have also experience major property booms over the past few years where other areas haven't e.g. Germany. Some of theh factors are obviously global e.g. low interest rates, stock market crash. Others seem to be peculiar to the UK: political leadership (or lack thereof), BTL mentality, changes to the banking system.
  3. LOL "AN INTERNAL INSPECTION IS RECOMMENDED." ...what is it some sort of Tardis??
  4. Removing (or reducing) stamp duty does nothing to help FTB's. The financial advantage is negligble and low purchase costs increase volatility. It is better to increase purchase costs. How about a 5% tax on all property purchases. This should also help damp down the BTL market a bit.
  5. I'm sure its Victorian: "It was not a shabby, dingy, dusty cart, but a smart little house upon wheels, with white dimity curtains festooning the windows, and window-shutters of green picked out with panels of a staring red, in which happily-contrasted colours the whole concern shone brilliant. Neither was it a poor caravan drawn by a single donkey or emaciated horse, for a pair of horses in pretty good condition were released from the shafts and grazing on the frouzy grass." Charles Dickens The Old Curiosity Shop pub 1841 The only thing not Victorian is the asking price
  6. Hasn't this happened already? Property prices on the Costa's are now even more outrageous than in the UK, thanks in large part to retirees and 2nd home buyers from Blighty.
  7. Arguably, increasing stamp duty might in the long run help FTB's by reducing speculation, making BTL less attractive etc. In Europe I think many countries have VAT on house purchases of 5% or more. With notary costs etc it typically costs 10% or more to buy a place in many countries (France, Spain, Holland, Germany etc). Although property prices have risen in many European countries over the past few years (Germany being an obvious exception) it seems that the UK has the wildest boom/bust cycle. Increasing the costs of moving would help damp this down. It might not be a popular move to increa
  8. Yeah. This article makes a drop of 30% seem inevitable.
  9. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,...1451817,00.html What if your house price crashes? Experts forecast falls of up to 30%. Clare Francis and Jessica Bown find out how you can protect yourself AN estimated 300,000 homeowners could find themselves in negative equity by the end of 2006, according to Capital Economics, a research group. Homeowners have been warned to brace themselves for house-price falls of up to 30% after the Financial Services Authority (FSA), the City regulator, warned that the risk of a big decline in property values posed a threat to the economy. In its annua
  10. 3. It is what the majority of their readers want to read. Since when have newspapers reported the truth!
  11. I wonder what the re-valuation would have been without the phone mast going up. Reports over the last month seem to show prices dropping 10% or more. I smell a rat. Could it just be that the EA is using the tower as a way of getting the seller to drop her price to more realistic levels in order to make a sale (e.g. 5% off for the tower, 10% because the house was way overpariced in the first place)?
  12. Want to save thousands on your new home? ---don't buy until at least 2007 !!
  13. How many homes did these brickies put up before being found out. It makes you wonder about the quality of workmanship. What is incredible is that the poor quality was only apparently discovered when the houses were finsihed. Also I do wonder why only the brickies involved seem to have been disciplined. Strange that no-one saw that the work was not up to scratch. Didn't they have any supervision? Didn't the building company check qualifications? Why are the foreman and the site manager also not losing their jobs? Something doesn't smell very fresh here. :angry: I hope someone will take
  14. After watching ww.housepricecrash.co.uk for the last two months this is the about the most compelling evidence that the HPC is well and truly under way. Without first time buyers there is basically no-one to go into the bottom end of the market. (OK: there may still be the odd would-be BTL landlord out there---fools rush in where angels fear to tread ).
  15. Personally I feel very sorry for this particular family. Just shows how you can be screwed up through no particular fault of your own. I does however highlight a fundamental flaw of the housing system in that buyers can delay, walk out of the deal etc without any financial penalty. In most countries an offer constitutes a binding contract and if either party pulls out there is a significant financial penalty involved.
  16. Also I think it is possible to make decent fuel by fermenting alcohol (not bad to drink either ). I think cars were converted to run on alcohol years ago in Brazil and it is now being considered in Europe. In the longer term I think there is a major issue regarding a possible increase in fuel costs wrt housing as many places are not really suited to life without a car. My parents live in rural East Anglia where there are many villages without even basic amenities (supermarket, post office, doctor etc.). Also, even no pub or off licence. Still if your car runs on alcohol you can always sypho
  17. "Today’s experienced buy-to-let investors see property as a long-term investment, says specialist buy-to-let broker, Landlord Mortgages." A long-term investment is a short-term investment gone wrong!!
  18. If we assume that properties take on average 2-3 months to sell (in a normal market) this would imply for an area with approximately 600 properties for sale there would be a turnover of the order of 50 properties per week. This 30 properties added in 3 days is roughly what one would expect. However the number on the EA's books is rising because almost no one is buying. Not surprising given the ludicrous prices!! I don't think there is any evidence yet that the market is being flooded with properties as sellers try to get out of the market. That may yet happen at a later stage of the crash when
  19. The time to introduce a tax (or other means) to prevent a recurrence of the boom/bust cycle is obviously not now when we are just at the point of seeing the biggest housing crash in history. Otherwise we will be locked into these ridiculous prices forever. After the bust occurs then government might look at ways to prevent prices being escalated up to unaffordable levels. However in a free market the only sure way is to ensure that there is a plentiful supply of affordable, decent housing. Of course one difference between Germany, Switzerland etc unlike the UK is that most housing (including
  20. The time to introduce a tax (or other means) to prevent a recurrence of the boom/bust cycle is obviously not now when we are just at the point of seeing the biggest housing crash in history. Otherwise we will be locked into these ridiculous prices forever. After the bust occurs then government might look at ways to prevent prices being escalated up to unaffordable levels. However in a free market the only sure way is to ensure that there is a plentiful supply of affordable, decent housing. Of course one difference between Germany, Switzerland etc unlike the UK is that most housing (including
  21. Interestingly, in many countries (Germany, Spain, France, Holland etc) purchase costs (notary, tax etc) run at more than 10% of the purchase price. Even with the present stamp duty in Britain costs are much lower. Increasing the rate of tax (either stamp duty or introducing VAT on house purchase) might be one way of helping to stabilise the housing market by discouraging speculation. It might not be too popular with the voters, though and would certainly put a damper on job mobility.
  22. Interesting article in today Times from Andrew Oswald. In my view spot on! http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,1072-1434763,00.html Bricks and mortar are ruining us This obsession with home ownership imposes a crippling burden on the economy OUR HOUSING market is a pain. Prices are too prone to large, speculative swings; buying and selling is difficult; house-sale chains make life a misery; workers find it impossible to move quickly as new jobs open up. The problem is that the British are fixated on owning. Two thirds of us are now owner-occupiers; only one person in ten ren
  23. This is absolutely NOT a buyers market. AT LEAST NOT YET!! Asking prices are still way too high and sellers won't come down by more than 5-10% at this stage. Wait until prices have come down at least 30% or so. This could well take another year or two. Remember also that markets typically overreact both up and down so that when the crash bottoms out there will be a REAL buyers market.
  24. A really great article. I particuarly liked this bit: "If the people who gave real estate investment advice were accountable for their advice, there would be less people giving advice. Most real estate "experts" are not experts. They are unscrupulous salespeople earning fat commissions selling dud "investments"." In the UK we have been bedevilled by these so-called "experts". Not just in property but in the whole financial sector. Think about the dot com boom, mis-selling of pensions, endowment mortgages. I'm afraid the whole financial sector is rotten with misanthropes, out to make a quick
  25. The situation here in Holland is rather different as mortgage interest payments are tax deductable. With a top rate of tax of around 50% there is little incentive to pay off ones mortgage and so most people prefer to have an interest only loan, saving money elsewhere, e.g. in shares or mutual funds. Nevertheless in the last few years a similar bubble has developed as in the UK with ridiculously high property prices. Likewise many individuals have withdrawn equity in order to pay for home improvements, luxuries, holidays etc.
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