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ours brun

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  1. This seems to be similar to Japan's experience over the last 15 years or so. A massive property bubble during which Japanese banks were the largest in the world followed by years of property declining in value for 13 straight years. During this time many of the Japanese banks have either folded or had to merge (e.g. Sumitomo with Mitsui) as they have been crippled by high levels of debt. Don't think that it can't happen here too!!
  2. A brilliant bit of analysis. It shows that the reasons for the property boom and the inevitable Gotterdammerung are quite complex. Interesting to see how the UK compares to other countries in respect of these reasons. Some countries: e.g. Holland, Spain, Australia and part of the US have also experience major property booms over the past few years where other areas haven't e.g. Germany. Some of theh factors are obviously global e.g. low interest rates, stock market crash. Others seem to be peculiar to the UK: political leadership (or lack thereof), BTL mentality, changes to the banking system.
  3. LOL "AN INTERNAL INSPECTION IS RECOMMENDED." ...what is it some sort of Tardis??
  4. Removing (or reducing) stamp duty does nothing to help FTB's. The financial advantage is negligble and low purchase costs increase volatility. It is better to increase purchase costs. How about a 5% tax on all property purchases. This should also help damp down the BTL market a bit.
  5. I'm sure its Victorian: "It was not a shabby, dingy, dusty cart, but a smart little house upon wheels, with white dimity curtains festooning the windows, and window-shutters of green picked out with panels of a staring red, in which happily-contrasted colours the whole concern shone brilliant. Neither was it a poor caravan drawn by a single donkey or emaciated horse, for a pair of horses in pretty good condition were released from the shafts and grazing on the frouzy grass." Charles Dickens The Old Curiosity Shop pub 1841 The only thing not Victorian is the asking price
  6. Hasn't this happened already? Property prices on the Costa's are now even more outrageous than in the UK, thanks in large part to retirees and 2nd home buyers from Blighty.
  7. Arguably, increasing stamp duty might in the long run help FTB's by reducing speculation, making BTL less attractive etc. In Europe I think many countries have VAT on house purchases of 5% or more. With notary costs etc it typically costs 10% or more to buy a place in many countries (France, Spain, Holland, Germany etc). Although property prices have risen in many European countries over the past few years (Germany being an obvious exception) it seems that the UK has the wildest boom/bust cycle. Increasing the costs of moving would help damp this down. It might not be a popular move to increase stamp duty but it could help. If the government was to be kind it might then use the extra revenue raised this way to benefit homeowners in other ways.
  8. Yeah. This article makes a drop of 30% seem inevitable.
  9. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,...1451817,00.html What if your house price crashes? Experts forecast falls of up to 30%. Clare Francis and Jessica Bown find out how you can protect yourself AN estimated 300,000 homeowners could find themselves in negative equity by the end of 2006, according to Capital Economics, a research group. Homeowners have been warned to brace themselves for house-price falls of up to 30% after the Financial Services Authority (FSA), the City regulator, warned that the risk of a big decline in property values posed a threat to the economy. In its annual Financial Risk Outlook, the FSA said it expected the economic environment to be “relatively benign†this year. But it added there were short and long-term risks that could threaten this — and cited the weakening housing market as one of the main dangers. The FSA is warning that consumer confidence would be adversely affected, which would lead to a slowdown in consumer spending. Unemployment would rise as industries such as construction, estate agents and retailing came under pressure. All these factors would have a negative impact on the stock market and consumers could see the value of their investments fall, as well as their homes. There are already signs that the housing market is slowing. Many estate agents and housing-market indexes have reported falls in property values over recent months. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said that property values fell for the fifth consecutive month in December, although the drop was the smallest for three months. The institution said it expected prices to continue falling for the next three months, after which the market will begin to recover, taking the average house price 3% higher this year. Halifax’s latest house-price index showed that values rose slightly in December, following two months of falls. The bank reported that the cost of the average home had gone up 1.1% to £162,086, although it said this was likely to have been a temporary blip. While it is not forecasting a house-price crash, Halifax believes values will fall by 2% this year. However, a number of commentators regard the FSA’s 30% slump scenario as highly probable. Neil Woodford, who runs Invesco Perpetual’s Income and High Income funds, said: “I think there will be a big correction in housing. Over the next three years, falls of 20% to 30% would not be extreme. In fact, I can see circumstances where prices could fall by more than 30%.†Durlacher, an investment bank, also foresees a slump of about 30% in the next few years, and Capital Economics is forecasting falls of about 20%, with a 7% decrease predicted for this year. If prices do plummet to this extent the FSA estimates that the number of homeowners who fall into mortgage arrears will increase from 83,000 now to about 345,000 by the middle of next year. However, the impact is not expected to be as great as the last time house prices fell sharply. Negative equity will only be a problem for those who need to sell, but the worst-affected will be those who have been relying on the wealth in their property for other aims such as paying school fees or supplementing retirement income. David Pannell at Durlacher said: “About 70% of homeowners expect to use their house as part of their pension, but if property prices drop people will start to look at other places to invest. Public confidence has already been hit by the equity bear market, mis-selling scandals and a general distrust of the financial industry, so I think a lot of homeowners will be cautious and look to cash investments, such as cash Isas and structured products that offer capital protection.†One of the best bonds that offers full capital protection is from Citibank. If the FTSE 100 rises by 30% or more in the first three years, the plan closes and you receive your initial investment plus 30%. Otherwise, it pays 130% of growth in the index over six years from February 18.
  10. 3. It is what the majority of their readers want to read. Since when have newspapers reported the truth!
  11. I wonder what the re-valuation would have been without the phone mast going up. Reports over the last month seem to show prices dropping 10% or more. I smell a rat. Could it just be that the EA is using the tower as a way of getting the seller to drop her price to more realistic levels in order to make a sale (e.g. 5% off for the tower, 10% because the house was way overpariced in the first place)?
  12. Want to save thousands on your new home? ---don't buy until at least 2007 !!
  13. How many homes did these brickies put up before being found out. It makes you wonder about the quality of workmanship. What is incredible is that the poor quality was only apparently discovered when the houses were finsihed. Also I do wonder why only the brickies involved seem to have been disciplined. Strange that no-one saw that the work was not up to scratch. Didn't they have any supervision? Didn't the building company check qualifications? Why are the foreman and the site manager also not losing their jobs? Something doesn't smell very fresh here. :angry: I hope someone will take the trouble to look at the quality of other houses built by Whelmar. A cheap shot: never understood the term "Jerry built". In Germany houses a generally constructed to a higher standard, sell at acceptable prices etc. In the UK too often we have the real "Jerry built" housing. Come to think of it a lot of Germam housing was built by British brickies in the 1980's (see series 1 of Auf Wiedersehn, Pet). I assume they were better supervised
  14. After watching ww.housepricecrash.co.uk for the last two months this is the about the most compelling evidence that the HPC is well and truly under way. Without first time buyers there is basically no-one to go into the bottom end of the market. (OK: there may still be the odd would-be BTL landlord out there---fools rush in where angels fear to tread ).
  15. Personally I feel very sorry for this particular family. Just shows how you can be screwed up through no particular fault of your own. I does however highlight a fundamental flaw of the housing system in that buyers can delay, walk out of the deal etc without any financial penalty. In most countries an offer constitutes a binding contract and if either party pulls out there is a significant financial penalty involved.
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