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House Price Crash Forum


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About Andytgt

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  1. Off plan appartments now coming onto the market, http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-215...=2&tr_t=buy I would like to know what it originally sold for (I assuming it was bought to be flipped and has been sold once already) At £180k for two bedrooms this is not actually completely off the chart, it is actually in central Norwich and it has parking. It is of a different calibre to the PaperMill Yard / Other Riverside trash anyway.
  2. This month BDEV confirmed they have £1.7B of Net Debt, that is one hell of an Interest bill each month. They have £3B of "Assets" but this is mainly the landbank they hold. The landbank is not paying them any rents, the interest bill is real, they need cashflow to survive. They dont have it, they cant get it without cutting prices which would hit margins, so they need to sell more, and then to do that cut again.... And when will that cycle end? It wont for a long time in my opinion, and month in month out they have to find enough to cover a £1,700,000,000 loan! They will go under over the Summer in my opinion, they are unique compared to the other housebuilders in that the others can sort of go into hibernation and slash cost and not build a lot and hope to ride out the storm on minimal turnover. BDEV have that interest bill to cover and it will take them under I think.
  3. To be fair to Northern Rock they know the % default rate will rise as they are downsizing, and have stated this, so everyone who can leave is doing so and they are not competeing for new business, so they are slowly being left with only the dregs and that will mean the % of defaults will rise. They could get the % default rate down overnight by offering mortgages to everyone under any terms again, get loads of new business, and as it takes 3 months before your in arrears, and everyone would probably pay a bit to start, the figures would look much better as the % default shrinks. But it would be an illusion. They are actually doing what they set out to do at the start, which is wind down the exposure, and in doing this by definition the % default rate will rise. They are not interested in making the figures look good, they are just doing their job and making the best of a bad situation. Thats my take on it anyway.
  4. OK, i could be wrong, i got it from another website, i will try to find the link. Either which way, I would not buy B&B shares!
  5. Its actually worse than you would first think, the price of the rights issue share is not the only factor, you are allowed to buy 16 New shares at 82p for every 25 existing shares you own. The price is now well below the 129p price implied by this, there is basically no point buying now to buy the rights issued shares. If you bought today you would be better off (all other things remaining equal) if the rights issue did not go ahead, the company you own a share of would be £300m worse off but you would own a portion of it worth more than £300m. I havnt explained that very well, basically, anything under 129p means the rights issue should under normal circumstances fail. There is no point buying B&B shares AND the rights issue shares, as they will cost you "in effect" 129p jointly, for a company currently valued at 105p.
  6. Everytime a new round of houses come on they set a new low point, its down to £109,950 now, at this rate it will be hitting £100k over the Summer and comfortably sub £100k in 2009. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-211...28&tr_t=buy
  7. I dont mean to sound like a snob but "the areas pretty dodgy" is quite an understatement. The traffic around there is also horrendous already, it can take twenty minutes to get to that junction if you are coming up from the bridge at the bottom of the hill at peak times. There is nothing going for the location at all, except maybe its close to the shops (Aldi) but thats it. I cant think who would possibly want to live there, the one hope they might have is BTL purchasing it to rent to students as its "just" walking/cycling distance to the UEA but it is not close.
  8. Opposite the Cathedral where Ikon nightclub used to be there is supposed to be a development of flats and houses (and a restaurant) finished in 2007. Well its still not finished, BUT all the properties were sold off plan (I have been told all sold in no time). This was in 2006. Since then the original company involved has changed (I dont know what happened to first company) and it is being developed by these people: http://www.citylivingproperty.co.uk/ The link to Norwich does not show the Ikon flats as they have in theory all been sold I suspect. Anyway, my point is, they were sold off plan and my money would be on it was to people hoping to let them out or flip them, not to people who wanted to live in them. Now that the market has gone pear shaped, im sure they are looking at getting out of it and losing the deposits rather than actually have to buy them at the previously inflated prices of 2006. This could be why they are taking so damn long to finish building them (it has been going on for YEARS now there is only about 20!) because as soon as they do, there will be a flood of "For Sale" signs? Maybe, its my theory, im not sure why im posting it, would just like others opinions on why exactly they are taking so long to finish them, and do others expect them to all come straight onto the market again?
  9. They are going on at less: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-103...=3&tr_t=buy (thats not the one I was talking about) They are going for £120-£125 in practice now, and as I said the house i mentioned was offered £115k part exchange. There is a lot for sale around that area, new houses coming on are doing so at the new band levels (which is £5k less each month) and usually selling, there are more that have been listed for ages that are slowly reducing and just following the market down but trailing it. Estate agents are obviously being realistic to new ones and saying outright, if you want to sell put it on at £X, if you want it to sit on the market then put it in at £Y, people with sense are going for £X and £X is getting lower and lower.
  10. There are consistant falls now amoung the terraced houses North of Norwich. One on Churchill Rd (Off Magdelen Street/Silver Rd area) sold for £144k in December 2007. Since then the house next door (and pretty much a clone) went on the market in January for £140k, sold but fell through, then on at £136k in March, sold and fell through, back on at £129, sold again but the offer accepted was for £122k. Contracts not exchanged yet either. They had an offer from Hopkins homes, where they are buying from for £115k for the place, and will take it if the £122k falls through. So basically £144 to £122 in under 6 months, all properties coming onto the market do so in a £5k band and that band is dropping by £5k a month a recon. New house listed on Churchill Rd this week, straight on at £127k. It is falling fast and there is not a lot to stop it, I think the falls will slow and hot resistance at £110k and not go under £100k for another 12 months. But they are falling damn fast.
  11. He is not the only one bailing out: http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vie...ename=rvi:1:1v_ Everyone is at it all over the country. Sorry if this isnt the right place to post it, but its anecdotal evidence that a lot of btl amateurs are just dumping the lot, but I dont think they will sell, even on Ebay.
  12. Nobody below the age of 50 has any savings to withdraw
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