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LondonView

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  1. G'evening folks. Here we are on the friday night when i feel the downward from the peak has had it's first real feel of momentum. I'm originally from NI and obviously i'm intrigued by what is happening to house prices there. I could go at the anecdotes but don't really have much of a stomach for that now that I am beginning to hear how things are unwinding. NI has of course been insulated from real regional/global economics in my lifetime until the reckless lending of the last several years and I see now how we can be quite immature in economic terms assuming that "it must be right" if banks/govt/ people in authority make us feel that it is right. As for house prices the last big lie seems to me to be the "well the bank wouldn't have valued it this high if they didn't believe it was worth this much". That lie is going to go the way of the others once people have to sell. I was on business at home this week and there is real fear among the people I spent time with. Not the "it would be bad if it fell again" fear but a growing feeling that there is something pretty rotten at the core of the wider economy that is slowly revealing itself. I'm worried about my job which I think is great after 7 years of study to get it. Lets see how it goes but now its here there will be no gloating from me. As for NI bulls, i truely am sorry you got yourself into the situation you are in, whatever that may be.
  2. Agreed Jacko, it is just wishful thinking that there will be any sort of improvement by spring 2008. It is not for EA's to state when market improves. It is for 1st time buyers and the conditions are so pathetic it is not going to happen. There is no reason for a first time buyer to enter a market when there are so many advantages to renting in NI. Has anyone heard of developers turning landlord when they can't shift housing stock? Big development in tyrone, houses went from £119k to £180k in 7 months but there are 6 of original lot for sale less than a year later and have been for 2/3 months. Meanwhile the developer had not even finished the development, it is now finished, houses empty (and crap finish too, he knew the game was up). Apparently he has an agent in to try and fill them.
  3. Just had a flick through a few EA websites to Fermanagh and West Tyrone. I know some of the people whose houses are on there as sale agreed but they were sold 6 months ago or thereabouts. Must not have been too many deals in the interim. Mate says he needs to sell a house, he has three he got by the usual equity release and btl mortgages from his financial adviser (!). When he went to sell his first property he was told he was mad and so began his landlorism. Now the figures do not add up and he had a problem with an open drain that to be honest i don't understand but it cost money he doesn't have to put right. He can't get shot of any of the houses although in fairness he has never had a day without a lodger. The houses are now two-three year old and like all things rented in need of TLC. I think he would cut his price but the EA is telling him to wait until the spring as this is a bad time to sell. Also, he was genuinely chuffed and "doing well for himself, he has a load of houses". Honestly, and this may sound absolutely ridiculous but since buying the houses he's scored more too, small town Ireland eh, like having a farm in years gone by! I can very easily see how he has got himself in this situation. My point is this, it has been a gradual easy ride to this point, not a journey in driven ambition to be a landlord, he just followed the crowd, now he doesn't want to be ahead of the crowd because this is not about informed decisions, it has been about being in step with his peers. IF I'd been in NI since graduating i'd be in the middle of it too. So based on the impact of low city bonuses infecting the London market and turning the media completely by the new year combined with what i'm guessing is a common hope among EA's that things pick up in the spring I'm thinking next April to be a period of quiet desperation for my mate. He is an ordinary fella, under 30 and with houses in Belfast and the West and his growing financial pain is the tipping point in my opinion.
  4. Joe, Where you heading for the spuds and turkey this year then? Thinking of Joe's family fun has me thinking of the shopathon. Can the credit cards take one last hit on the NI high street? I think results from this years christmas will be interesting, will personal debt keep on rising? Given all the bad press and general sense of things not being "right" (right being spending money you just don't have) surely the brakes will come on this year? I don't know, NI the economic miracle keeps on rolling although in the last 12 months my quarterly or so trips home have seen huge changes in peoples outlook. Last Christmas it was congratualtions and general feelgood by those who had bought and quiet elation for those who had two - "I made more last year on those two houses than some professional footballers did on the field". Same person was last week saying both on market but told by ea it'll be better in spring........... I don't know if he said what year? 2011 according to some. Anyhow, it's down to a game of chicken, will the banks, ftb'ers or amateur BTL'ers blink first? Funny the ftb'ers have no real reason to do anything apart from social pressure. It's a waiting game.
  5. http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/homefind...icle3005019.ece Good stuff Helen, another load of waffle and baffle them. Prices falling, great offers, dozen sold in a week great opportunities for first time buyers etc etc. I love the line about the developers responding to the need for affordable housing as noted by our learned government........ what a spin! They are the good guys after all? In fairness you can't blame the developers for hiking prices for poor quality houses when people are so willing to pay it. What you must question though is this newspapers credibility bearing in mind the fact it owns propertnews.com and can't just readjust to pre house mania mindset in terms of advertising revenue. I don't know anything about Helen Carson but her articles read very poorly. Is she an experienced journo or just out of uni? If just out of Uni I suppose i'll go easy as probably half bullied. It is crap journalism all in all though.
  6. Does the belfast telegraph own property news?
  7. Anyone read the German ambassador to Irelands thoughts on the results of the celtic tiger? And he is unapologetic about it too. Some turnaround in sentiment toward the Irish in the EU. Not sure what this means economically, maybe nothing, but it will impact general confidence for the Irish as a generation see themselves as a land of entrepreneurial genius. Big news there recently is that the polish can take their money home without risk of paying taxes again on their earnings abroad. A change which is certain to encourage repatriation of people/funds. Ireland is now in the perfect of most pperfect storms, economic carnage awaits and while many exit stage left it is the working man of Ireland who will have to tighten their belts.
  8. Shhhhhhhhh sold2rent, it is what it is. Give them the "yeah it's terrible down here we eat our young" line and hopefully they'll stick to inside the westlink - road to airport - 2 weeks in spain - civilisation. Back to the auld houses anyhow, was home last weekend as planning the move, sentiment is absolutely crap and I'm sorry but after listening to all the nonsense this past two or three years I found it pretty refreshing. It's wrong I know because mates of mine who took equity out of their already overvalued homes to consolidate credit cards, car loans and the flatscreens are waking up to negative equity. In fairness they will mostly be happy out where they are for a few years, but those joke townhouses in strabane, ennishillen and omagh are no places for families in my opinion. Although those in construction are talking about oz and even dubai. There has been an acceptance that houses won't sell for a few months and a few rumours of "he got that cheap" reductions now.
  9. Welcome anyhow northernbear, i'm just being very pessimistic probably.
  10. Where is the evidence of investment banks heading to NI from London? Wait a few months and there will be evidence of jobs going in the city but those jobs won't turn up in NI. You can place re-active services in NI and drive customer traffic through there but thats not what investment banking is about. Do you have any idea of the multi-generational skillsets London has? Where you going to get that in NI? Please don't say queens... Perhaps you can place back office services in NI but what is NI's advantage to the North of England and Scotland? Cheap labour? That'll last in a place that prides itself on its high cost of living? Bigger subsidy from Invest NI, that'll last? There may be some banking success stories in NI but it won't underpin the present situation.
  11. What happens now then? You remember the feeling when you are on a swing,you reach the greatest height and you are motionless waiting for the decline? Financial services was big target for invest ni but is now a sector that will roll back for a bit i'd imagine. Gordon aint moving on public sector wage inflation and this is crucial to the NI economy. The republic is in difficulties which means tougher times for the all-island market. London sentiment is changed and this will undermine remaining positive sentiment in the rest of britain. The US, where the big spending tourists would come from is having the odd financial worry. Heard of a few more McDevelopments in Tyrone where they can't sell finished houses and are downing tools on the remainder. Apparently you can avoid paying rates if you don't finish them? Someone remind me, what is your house worth if no one wants it? What is your house worth if they built too many and loads of houses in your development are unsold/for rent/empty? West of the bann you can easily rent houses for sale at c£210k for £110 per week and even then you have loads of choice. Can I suggest that at most these houses are worth whatever 25 year repayment mortgage £110 per week will pay of at the most? Thats £100k when you pay a 10% deposit. Yeah, i'm an idiot to suggest this i know. Polish elections next week, apparently new law in Poland means returnees won't be taxed on money they bring back, therefore if yer polish and you are off radar you are basically being invited to avoid paying all taxes on money earned abroad and return it home no questions asked. With the weakening construction sector expect more empty apartments and houses throughout the country. I'm watching london carefully but it's NI that is the place to watch I reckon. It's going to be baaaaaaaaadddd.
  12. Probably distracted by the award categories. http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/propertyawards/ Any suggestions? Best media sellout to vested interests? Biggest lie? Least coherent reporting?
  13. Hmm me thinks there be a trouble with sentiment to enth degree, will be good to see what the sunday papers make of the run particularly as the 2.6% fall in prices here in London gets a run out from Rightmove.co.uk. Wonder what the Belfast Tele "analysis" will be......... save the links to Helen Carsons property nonsense from this week so you can email them to her as she/they inevitably try to spin out of the spiraling decline in a few months time. Now if i owned any of those thousands of properties on propertynews I'd reduce them and try to get rid with a 20% reduction for forced sale and hope that some idiot thinks they are getting a deal. Many have played the sticky downer tactic me thinks and articles like those in the tele this week gave them hope of off loading but now the media can't obfuscate no more and sentiment is sue to be a downing.
  14. This is the major problem with modern Britain too in my view. The thing is you have to be at the cutting age of capitalism making a fortune to be treated any way decently by this tidy little system Labour have us labouring under. There is an entire generation coming through, presently mid twenties who are completely shafted by HPI, student fees, the taxation system and the free labour market. There is much for this generation to be pissed off about in my view. These are people who want those old fashioned decent family home, decent work conditions, safe towns and villages and fair taxation. Fair enough this system encourages entrepreneurship but it life boils down to a competition. Everything once considered superior about Britain to the US in terms of some sort of social justice is at risk in my view. How will the people here look on access to education, housing, healthcare etc by the time the now mid twenties with their grand old student loans hit mid thirties and really need the family homes and what have you? Perhaps the thing is we are not aware of how we stand in europe to make the correct decisions about how we are assisted by our government. The eu is here whether we like it or not, our media rarely tell us about the nuts and bolts of economies/education systems/welfare systems that should be compared to ours and informing political debate here.
  15. Here we go again then, just before this law came in there was a glut of planning applications in Tyrone, expect the same again now i'd imagine. Funny thing is there has hardly been a house sold in Tyrone since april according to this in Omaghs Ulsterherald; Local property prices slowing? BY RONAN MCSHERRY DESPITE a report claiming house prices have fallen in the Republic while rocketing in the North, an Omagh estate agent has said the figures may be misleading. Figures released by the University of Ulster last week showed the average house price in the North has risen by a staggering 50%, or £78,000 in the last year. Meanwhile, in the Republic, new figures released this week show average prices have fallen by more than 9,000 euro (£6,000) - or three per cent-since January. But, according to Omagh Estate Agent Darragh McLernon, local house prices over the summer have 'dropped back significantly.' While he acknowledged the house price fall in the Republic, he suggested it is 'not as much as people think.' Mr McLernon said, "Over the summer it is quiet anyway. With the rise in interest rates and the threat of other rises the feedback was that people were very nervous about coming forward." INVESTORS While there were have been a significant number of house sales locally, Mr McLernon stated that investors have been off-loading as they want their money out of here with prices having 'maxed out.' He added, "They (investors) are trying to take the profit out of here to the North of England and the likes of Manchester, Newcastle and Liverpool. A lot of people were going to the North of England where they could buy two houses for the price of one. They would then let them out with the rent covering the mortgage as well as giving them extra return." With the traditional summer period drawing to a close Mr McLernon said the market is gathering momentum again but a definite pattern has not emerged as yet. "I am not sure what way it will go. People have called to buy in recent months but were scared off by the interest rates. However, things have started to move again. For a while it was all very quiet but now the bidding and viewing is gathering pace again. This has been encouraged by the Bank of England saying there will be a freeze in interest rates by the end of the year." While the University of Ulster survey showed the market was still buoyant, it only included sales up until the end of June. However, observers aren't yet predicting that prices in the North will fall as the survey suggests they have done in the Republic. ----------------------------------------- I suspect Mr McLernon did well for himself in the 24 months of madness up until april/may of this year and would be happy to get things moving at any price to keep the cash flow up. However his quotes show a desire to spin the situation but in my view a lack of the skills to do so. His admissions to investors leaving the market are welcome of course. His saying the BoE will freeze interest rates is an outright lie. Get with the program sir, compellable lies are not the way to spin.
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