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Grin and Bear it

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About Grin and Bear it

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  1. It is the number of loans that are important rather than the amounts (it indicates the demand for house purchase rather than current prices). Because the population is rising and new homes are being built, the number of loans for house purchase should ALWAYS increase year on year under normal circumstances. Look at the CML figures. Number of Loans for house purchase in 2005 was lower than any other year since 1996. Quarter 1 2006 is the 2nd lowest since 1998 (2005 is the lowest.) Unless we have a record July then Quarter 2 2006 is going the same way. Don`t believe the hype from these organi
  2. This is an interesting thread. In previous property crashes, both here and in other countries, interest rates fell AFTER the crash. If you allow for inflation, I think you find that rents fell also in the ensuing recession. This makes all your examples rubbish, doesn`t it?
  3. This is a really important thread. Many people are making the mistake of thinking that the LR, Nationwide or Halifax info represents "like-for-like" sales ie that every house in every street is going up by 3%. Even people on this site who should know better are questioning whether a crash is happening. Unfortunately these figures are only average prices of houses which are sold, and take no account of the large numbers of unsold houses. A more legitimate way of estimating the value of all our houses (ie the total housing stock in the UK) would be to divide the total amount spent on housing in
  4. Dear PG, According to Hometrack, if you have £10 million worth of property, then you have lost £500,000 in the past 12 months - Unlucky! Hope that helps,
  5. Beware "approvals" data - these include many mortgages which are never completed - especially during a crash/slump/stagnation like now. It is better to wait for the Council of Mortgage Lenders data of actual lending - it always tends to be lower. The BBA only comments on banks mortgage lending (missing out the building societies) which is fairly useless. This being said, the mortgage approvals data is good news for bears, being 18% lower than last year and being the lowest May figure since 1999 (funny how the BBC didn`t put it like this...)
  6. I have been having a look at the CML mortgage approvals data looking at the number of mortgages for house purchase only. (There is a link from the HPC homepage if you are interested). There is a slowdown of nearly 50% between the second quarter of 2004 (the peak of the market) and the first quarter of 2005 (just been added to the statistics). This is the sharpest slowdown ever recorded (the figures go back to 1970). The second sharpest was 44% from Q3 1988 to Q1 1989 ... just before the last crash! Here we go...
  7. Brainclamp, I have read all your theories before and am unimpressed. If house prices are rising due to immigration or overcrowding, please explain why rental prices are not also rising to the same extent? It is a much better explanation that the lure of capital gains led to a short-term advantage of buying over renting which will now correct...... by a crash in house prices.
  8. Sorry - I don`t have much time to post! I am very impressed with this site though. I see the Hometrack survey has already been destroyed in other threads. I would completely ignore "registered buyers" (this means nothing), number of transactions (does not in itself affect price) and I would even ignore selling price at this point (relates to the state of the market 1 year ago at least). Hometrack is only important for tracking the number of properties on the market. Supply and demand - thats where its at... I should get some sort of quote...
  9. The media seems to be getting quite bullish about Hometrack and other recent reports. However I don`t think this is wise. In all markets price is a function of supply and demand. If demand is greater than supply the price goes up and vice versa. The housing market is interesting because purchases take so long, the price responds only slowly to supply/demand inbalances, and there is a lag of between 6 months and 1 year between a changing market and a changing price. Price indices were the last things to change during the last crash. The best way to analyse supply and demand is to look at the
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