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About ianb78

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  1. In his book Harrison meticulously identifies each 'primary recession' and 'mid-cycle recession' from 1776 onwards which appears to fit with his model. I suspect the economic and political issues vary over the years but the economic or credit cycle combined with the finite nature of 'land' tends to cause this cyclical boom and bust phenomenon. Government intervention may alter the pattern or ameliorate the peaks and troughs but the time spans seem to be similar whatever it's an interesting theory and his prediction was remarkable last time
  2. As I was tidying up I came across the book 'Boom and bust' written by Fred Harrison in 2005. It reminded me of his proposed 18 year property cycle and the fact that he predicted the 2007/08 crash with uncanny accuracy using this model. The model proposes a four year 'recession' or downturn period followed by 7 years moderate growth and then 7 years higher growth (interspersed by a mid cycle wobble). The final two years are characterised by the 'winner's curse' with property prices rising exponentially prior to a crash. taking a look at things it appears that his model is spot on. Following the crash in 07/08 we had four years of stagnant prices. Since around 2011/12 we've had moderate rises of around 5%. According to Harrison a mid term wobble should be approaching (?2018) which should be followed by seven years of significant rises up to a spectacular crash in 2025 Apparently this cycle has been playing out in cycles of 18-20 years for the last couple of hundred years! I personally feel that this model is more applicable to the UK excluding London which appears to operate almost as a separate country. Indeed taking out London everything seems to be panning out as predicted Thoughts?
  3. The best sites are: Moneything, Saving stream, Funding secure and ABLrate These allow you to lend money backed by assets (including property) to people at typical rates of 12%! As the loans are less than 70% LTV, if the person defaults the asset is seized and funds recouped Seems to be working well so far I'm not sure whether these qualify for the new 'inovative finance' ISA. I assume so as they are P2P lending sites. Any ideas anyone?
  4. Following over 5 years of declining prices resulting in falls of over 50%, it appears that prices are now stabilising and even rising in certain areas of Ireland. Is this now the time to buy? Thoughts?
  5. It appears that unlike it's UK counterpart, the US housing Market well and truly crashed with falls of upto 60% from peak. There is some evidence that prices are now bottoming out and that now is the time to snap up bargains I've seen condos in Florida selling for $50,000 65% below peak price with good rental yields Is now the time to buy? Your views please
  6. Wasnt it the city bankers fault that we're in this mess in the first place? Tax payers in the midlands, north, Scotland, wales and northern Ireland are bailing out the London banker [email protected]
  7. Everyone knows the south east is an over-crowded over-rated hole. Viva midland and north!
  8. I bought a brand new four bedroom detatched house 6 months ago in village 4 miles from Nottingham city centre overlooking views of a lake for £212,000
  9. Hi I'm really undecided about buying more gold. I'm thinking that with quantitative easing and ongoing currency turmoil the fundamentals are there On the other hand the current price is cloe to the historical high What do you guys think?!
  10. I suppose the bottom line is that every city has good and bad areas and that Nottingham is no exception. Overall though it does have alot to offer in terms of amenities and I can think of much worse places I've never experienced any trouble in Nottingham and feel that it's reputation in not entirely warranted
  11. Well said brother I've just bought a four bedroom brand new detached house in a village on the outskirts of Nottingham for 212k! In the south east slums you'd be looking at a terraced house for double that!!! Plus you'd have to watch out for the hoards of rioters!!!! On a lighter note Nottingham has won two European Cups (nottm Forest) whereas no London team has ever won it!!!
  12. I think Nottingham gets an unfair reputation. It's great for nightlife and retail. It has leafy suburbs such as West Bridgford Top class Unis and sports venues Whilst the centre may have some 60s architecture it has a nice big square with great bars and restaurants especially the Lace Market I'm not sure why it gets such a bad rep nationally when real holes such as Hull Middlesbrough and Coventry get away with it - ah well who cares what outsiders think. Come to think of it London is pretty scummy in parts - look at level of rioting!!!!!
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