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Everything posted by Nico

  1. No need to panic Capital Economics have already proved that they are no dab hand at the whole forecasting game in the past, and I would not expect them to be any better in the future. Anyone predicting a 20% fall in the current climate is going to look silly - what do you expect CE to do - stick their neck out for the "n"th year running ? Or revise their forecast to a "modest drop" type scenario. 5% nominal is 9% (ish) in real terms, of course.
  2. That's a good point about wages FDK. Before everyone jerks their knee in typical HPC style, has anyone looked at affordability ? Just because a flat is £500 a month to rent, it doesn't mean that they are better off unless they are paid UK wages which is the old arbitrage effect. What is the typical wage over there, what are the credit contraints like, how high is unemployment, etc. ?
  3. If the current run continues, it may well hit 5,500 sooner than we all thought...
  4. So the good news is that the L.R. has informed us with their lagging figures which pertain more to Q2 than Q3, that prices are still going up, in fact more so in London than nationally, and a couple of London agencies have declared that the capital's market won't in fact decline, but will bounce back next year. Bounce back from what exactly isn't made too clear as the 200% bubble market rise of recent years hasn't exactly fallen into any kind of decisive cyclical low yet, but bounce back it will anyway according to the "experts", who seem curiously nonplussed at the unexplained abolition of th
  5. http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/newsAr...ND-REGISTRY.xml
  6. The cost of renting will be down to local market conditions, but we have discussed this many a time on this forum and there is no doubt that (for most areas at least ) renting is the most economically viable option in the current market. There are of course many other considerations other then pure economics. I live in south London, and rent a one bedroom ground floor garden flat. My flat was purchased for £150,000 in April 2005, when we were still very much at the peak of the market and was refurbished to a very high standard (new kitchen, etc.). I pay £650pcm rent. The rent alone would bare
  7. Interesting. We have had various buildings unoocupied due to similar accounting / tax reasons. Cheers for the Slatin report there No Accountant, a good overview of the situation.
  8. I work in the City of London, and we are moving office to the south bank of the river (near London Bridge) in the coming months. We own the lease on the current building, and I was not surprised to hear that the new premises (which is broadly comparable to the current place) is considerably (25%) cheaper – we took the current building on in 2000 after all. What I WAS surprised to hear was quite how good the deal on the new place actually is. They are throwing in a couple of a years of the 5 year deal for free. That is a reduction of over 50% ! I was walking around at lunchtime just now, and
  9. Interesting thread this one, especially considering that I am currently looking for a new job, and salary levels are constantly on my mind at the moment. Firstly, I have a golden rule: I NEVER tell anyone my salary. It is a vulgar measure at best, which society has always tried to underpin a level of importance against. I really don’t know what my friends and family earn. Hell, I don’t even know how much my own girlfriend earns. When you undertake a salary survey on an anonymous site like this, of course the high earners are going to be keen to post and this will skew the results somewhat
  10. "IT services" for a "free massage", eh ? Talking about "the economy" were we, sir ? I bet you were, sir. Ooh ! Sir Does anyone else have any "alternative lifestyle experiences" thinly vailed as a comment on the UK economy ?
  11. The whole "homeowner sale" concept is something that I have been thinking about for some time now, and I am surprised that it hasn't already taken off. I would think that websites that already have nationwide exposure would surely be in the best position. What would stop Ebay form launching something along the lines of "Ebay Property" - instead of the traditional bidding process, it would serve as a fee paying advertising service. We are starting to see this sort of thing already, for example: http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/HOUSE-PROPERTY-FOR-S...1QQcmdZViewItem "The gardener" raises some good poi
  12. I use the Nationwide inflation-adjusted house price index as the “reference index” for UK house prices. We probably all know the historical graph by now, and after two “flat” (i.e. zero growth) quarters, I really expected some sort of fall for Q2 2005, and was quite surprised to see a £5k rise. The only explanation I can think of is that the majority of sellers are “sitting tight” and are not willing to accept offers lower than the asking price; the Q2 figures are therefore based on a low volume of sales consisting of over-inflated prices. Even so, I would have expected some sort of fall
  13. Last year - saved nothing. This year - trying to save roughly my rent each month. Remember - my rent is still at 1997 levels and is pretty low for where I live (should be 50% more I reckon). Non FTB - good point about taxes there
  14. A few comments here. Firstly, £688 must be an interest-only mortgage or is a repayment mortgage with a hefty (£30k+) deposit (assuming a base rate of 4.75%). Secondly, let's not forget that 19.9% of wages applies to GROSS wages. It will be around 30% of net pay for a single person and about 28% (guess) of net pay for a couple earning £20.8k each (i.e. 1/2 of the average split equally). My rent in London is about 13-14% of my gross wages. And I live in a nice flat, but STILL have no money left at the end of the month. 20% is a high ratio, even if it doesn't sound it.
  15. In that case then, you will probably appreciate me correcting your English. You surely mean "anally retentive" not "retentative", details being important and all ? Well, you did ask.... Anyway, enough ! Any pictures, anyone ?
  16. Does it really matter though ? I only posted the picture to kick this light-hearted thread into life, a picture I took on the offchance on Sunday. I didn't say that particular photo was authorative evidence of a property crash... The fact of the matter is that these are symptoms of the downturn in the property market. 10 sale signs together must tell you something
  17. I think the fact they have been for sale tells you something though ? Out of (say) 30 flats, 10 either for sale or rent. I did say it wasn't the best example...just one I noticed when I happened to have my camera with me. I have seen plenty of streets with crash-style sale sign concentration.
  18. Very good point. They always say that Labour were lucky not to win in 1992 and I think that along a similar line of thinking, it would be disastrous for the Tories to be elected in 2005. We have a HPC and potentially a recession ahead. Let Labour bear the brunt of these. To be honest, listening to some of the Tory pre-election policies, I am becoming increasingly convinced that they don't actually want to be elected this time round.
  19. We all know the pictures from the late 1980s...rows of for sale signs against a backdrop of edwardian terraces. I have noticed a similarly high concentration of sale signs in certain areas of London over the last few months, but have never had my camera to hand. Well, last weekend I managed to get a quick snap when I was driving past Chiswick roundabout. This was at the bottom of a block of flats...I am guessing that 1 in 3 are for sale or let. This is by no means the biggest "collection" I have seen, but it is still a hell of a lot of signs in very close proximity. I will be on the lookout
  20. Hmmm. I wonder if they count for the predicted rates of inflation ?
  21. Great work JP. But I couldn't help but make a few changes - see attached document (needs MSWord - looks better in "print preview"). I hope you don't take offence at me plagiarising your work - I thought it was a great idea in the first place. My version probably contains some mistakes as well of course ! General comments: 1) First time buyer(s) beware sounds better - use the plural. The title has to be right 2) Avoid exclamation marks. This is serious advice you are offering here 3) It is best not to say things such as "now is the worst time to buy". You need to put a spin on it, such as
  22. Reading a couple of newspapers this morning, as I always do, and something occurred to me. To our journalist friends, the property market is the weather. " What ?! " I hear you cry. " But the property market is nothing like the weather - the weather is governed by factors beyond our control - by low pressure systems over the Atlantic and the Jet Stream and other such wonders of nature ! " " The property market is all about economics, interest rates and whopping big mortgages ! ". Well. Let me tell you. I have a particular interest in the weather, and it is very important that I know exac
  23. http://www.propertyfacts.co.uk/old/pricetr...pricetrends.htm Bit out of date now though. Er, how about the header bar that says "graphs" or the one that says "useful links" ?!
  24. Would you define a decrease in "real" prices due to a high inflationary environment a "soft landing" ? I would call it a crash. The general public, who are always going to be more sensitive to nominal, rather than real prices, might not. But it is still a crash though. Or if "crash" is too offensive a word, how about "sustained period of negative real term growth" I believe that the old adage that "property always goes up" came from these periods of high inflation. I always think it is interesting that typical pay rises (without promotion) in the 1970s were 15%. Today, they are closer to 3-
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