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House Price Crash Forum


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About Nico

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  1. No need to panic Capital Economics have already proved that they are no dab hand at the whole forecasting game in the past, and I would not expect them to be any better in the future. Anyone predicting a 20% fall in the current climate is going to look silly - what do you expect CE to do - stick their neck out for the "n"th year running ? Or revise their forecast to a "modest drop" type scenario. 5% nominal is 9% (ish) in real terms, of course.
  2. That's a good point about wages FDK. Before everyone jerks their knee in typical HPC style, has anyone looked at affordability ? Just because a flat is £500 a month to rent, it doesn't mean that they are better off unless they are paid UK wages which is the old arbitrage effect. What is the typical wage over there, what are the credit contraints like, how high is unemployment, etc. ?
  3. If the current run continues, it may well hit 5,500 sooner than we all thought...
  4. So the good news is that the L.R. has informed us with their lagging figures which pertain more to Q2 than Q3, that prices are still going up, in fact more so in London than nationally, and a couple of London agencies have declared that the capital's market won't in fact decline, but will bounce back next year. Bounce back from what exactly isn't made too clear as the 200% bubble market rise of recent years hasn't exactly fallen into any kind of decisive cyclical low yet, but bounce back it will anyway according to the "experts", who seem curiously nonplussed at the unexplained abolition of th
  5. http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/newsAr...ND-REGISTRY.xml
  6. The cost of renting will be down to local market conditions, but we have discussed this many a time on this forum and there is no doubt that (for most areas at least ) renting is the most economically viable option in the current market. There are of course many other considerations other then pure economics. I live in south London, and rent a one bedroom ground floor garden flat. My flat was purchased for £150,000 in April 2005, when we were still very much at the peak of the market and was refurbished to a very high standard (new kitchen, etc.). I pay £650pcm rent. The rent alone would bare
  7. Interesting. We have had various buildings unoocupied due to similar accounting / tax reasons. Cheers for the Slatin report there No Accountant, a good overview of the situation.
  8. I work in the City of London, and we are moving office to the south bank of the river (near London Bridge) in the coming months. We own the lease on the current building, and I was not surprised to hear that the new premises (which is broadly comparable to the current place) is considerably (25%) cheaper – we took the current building on in 2000 after all. What I WAS surprised to hear was quite how good the deal on the new place actually is. They are throwing in a couple of a years of the 5 year deal for free. That is a reduction of over 50% ! I was walking around at lunchtime just now, and
  9. Interesting thread this one, especially considering that I am currently looking for a new job, and salary levels are constantly on my mind at the moment. Firstly, I have a golden rule: I NEVER tell anyone my salary. It is a vulgar measure at best, which society has always tried to underpin a level of importance against. I really don’t know what my friends and family earn. Hell, I don’t even know how much my own girlfriend earns. When you undertake a salary survey on an anonymous site like this, of course the high earners are going to be keen to post and this will skew the results somewhat
  10. "IT services" for a "free massage", eh ? Talking about "the economy" were we, sir ? I bet you were, sir. Ooh ! Sir Does anyone else have any "alternative lifestyle experiences" thinly vailed as a comment on the UK economy ?
  11. The whole "homeowner sale" concept is something that I have been thinking about for some time now, and I am surprised that it hasn't already taken off. I would think that websites that already have nationwide exposure would surely be in the best position. What would stop Ebay form launching something along the lines of "Ebay Property" - instead of the traditional bidding process, it would serve as a fee paying advertising service. We are starting to see this sort of thing already, for example: http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/HOUSE-PROPERTY-FOR-S...1QQcmdZViewItem "The gardener" raises some good poi
  12. I use the Nationwide inflation-adjusted house price index as the “reference index” for UK house prices. We probably all know the historical graph by now, and after two “flat” (i.e. zero growth) quarters, I really expected some sort of fall for Q2 2005, and was quite surprised to see a £5k rise. The only explanation I can think of is that the majority of sellers are “sitting tight” and are not willing to accept offers lower than the asking price; the Q2 figures are therefore based on a low volume of sales consisting of over-inflated prices. Even so, I would have expected some sort of fall
  13. Last year - saved nothing. This year - trying to save roughly my rent each month. Remember - my rent is still at 1997 levels and is pretty low for where I live (should be 50% more I reckon). Non FTB - good point about taxes there
  14. A few comments here. Firstly, £688 must be an interest-only mortgage or is a repayment mortgage with a hefty (£30k+) deposit (assuming a base rate of 4.75%). Secondly, let's not forget that 19.9% of wages applies to GROSS wages. It will be around 30% of net pay for a single person and about 28% (guess) of net pay for a couple earning £20.8k each (i.e. 1/2 of the average split equally). My rent in London is about 13-14% of my gross wages. And I live in a nice flat, but STILL have no money left at the end of the month. 20% is a high ratio, even if it doesn't sound it.
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