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nowthenagain

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Everything posted by nowthenagain

  1. Crude is going down. Speculative bubble. Wipe that huge dollop of froth off the top. etc. This pleases me.
  2. When it goes negative YoY and the spring bounce fails to emerge then the shit will really hit the fan. I still regularly talk to people who cling on to the YoY positives.
  3. Bubb, that is wishful thinking. There is a lot of confusion about the reason for recent high oil prices. It is after all a current event. Only the future will determine what the true reason is.
  4. That was what accounted for the spike from $105 to $107 this morning. An overreaction I feel but then these are crazy times. Oil $106.67 now.
  5. Peak oil may or or may not be upon us, but it is not the main issue concerning oil prices today. Dollar weakness, and a speculative flight to 'inflationproof' assets, are the reason we see oil today at $107 rather than, say, $70. The recent increase (<1yr) in price is in no way related to a shortage of supply. It is the unwinding of the speculative element, on the back of some stability in the $ and stocks, that will see crude prices fall in the short term. Or this is what I hope at least.
  6. Making money. It's the making money I like. What was the rest of your sentence?
  7. A leading indicator.. Bad, very bad, the same as every other leading indicator. This thing is a long way from over.
  8. Bring back the gold thread. Now that we are actually in a House Price Crash this forum is going to need something else to talk about anyway. Gold Price Crash seems a reasonable related choice!
  9. For a small gold investor using Bullion Vault the above would be little help. In the situation that the price of gold was falling rapidly, it is my opinion that BullionVault would either 1. Freeze up so sales were impossible (no buyers) 2. Go bust when it's bots matched sales on BullianVaults behalf, leaving BullionVault holding depreciating gold and facing a liability to the customer of the sale price (a significantly higher amount). In this situation the cash price of the investors' gold on liquidation would be much less than the price they had wanted to sell at, as the market was rapidly
  10. And the smaller customers? But... I'm not getting into this too deep because I don't use BullionVault and thus can't be bothered spending the time thinking about it too much! Closed system, only sellers in a panic - It just seems something doesn't quite add up. I am probably wrong though!
  11. A question now I have read the BullionVault FAQ: If there were no human buyers at any price would I be correct in thinking that the sell orders would be matched by a bot? And if this is so would not the owner of the bot buying rapidly depreciating assets then face massive cash liabilities to the seller, whilst holding only a depreciating asset? If this is the case, and if most of the bots are operated by BullionVault themselves (as seems to be the case), would the result not be BullionVault quickly becoming insolvent in the event of panic selling?
  12. Steve, I get the feeling you'll get an answer some day soon.
  13. Chris c-t, inflating out of a global depression will prove impossible. US rates are already at 2.25%, has it made any difference?! I admire your guts, it could end up making you very rich. However, I am staying short gold/crude/commodities! Deflationary depression here we come..
  14. Gold 905. Crude 99. Where's Goldfinger gone?! (Sold all his gold last week no doubt...)
  15. Sledge, I am a believer in the crashing of economic waves. i think you have misread what I wrote. Gold falling is both predictable and preferable. Btw, panic is surely rational? Again I think you misunderstood me.
  16. $929.9 now. It's the direction that matters. Gold has lost $80 in a day. Keep that up for a few days and we have a panic led collapse.
  17. I agree completely with the OP here. The Dollar has hit it's bottom and is going to move up from here. US IRs are very close to the lowest they'll go, there is pressure in the FOMC to stop cutting rates. This Dollar strength, combined with a global deflationary recession, are about to massacre commodity prices. Phase 2 began on Tuesday.
  18. I love the gold threads. Rationality goes out the window and the loonies come out. On a site such as this, dedicated to a perceived speculative bubble in house prices, can everyone not see that speculative bubbles can and will exist in all asset classes. Takedown is here!
  19. Gold is falling because the perception is now that US interest rates are at, or very near, a low and the hyperinflation some were expecting is not appearing in the inflation figures. This also explains the Dollar strengthening and the more general fall in commodities. A fear of inflation and a weaknening Dollar are being replaced as the primary drivers in commodity prices by a fear of demand destruction and a rising Dollar. It could be a fast long ride down for commodities in general. I'd suggest anyone who has bought gold recently to sell / hedge their position. My longstanding physical p
  20. I consider this week to mark the end of phase 1 of this downturn. Phase 1 was marked by Western banking crisis, Dollar weakness, and extreme commodity price inflation. All these things are now going to reverse. Phase 2 will be marked by an unwillingness of banks to lend. This leading to: Deep recession in the West. Financial market and currency crisis in the Far East due to the Western depression crippling demand for exported goods. Anger over the way that central banks shot the gun too soon to save financiers at the expense of the average citizen (whom will be becoming unemployed by this s
  21. I'd bet on .75 but there has to be a chance of .50 Not cutting as severly as expected might not spook the markets too much on the back of the GS/Lehman news and might shore up the Dollar a little. If I were Bernanke I'd go .50 but we all know helicopter Ben perhaps goes into this with a pet theory to protect! It was insanity in my eyes to employ someone like Bernanke, with very preconceived ideas, to a post requiring as much flexible thinking as Fed chairman.
  22. Up until a couple of years ago I lived in South Manchester. Went back there this morning and the sheer volume of For Let and For Sale boards astonished me. Parts of Hulme and Whalley Range are plastered with them. And, the really funny thing is, there are thousands of flats still nearing completion! The crash has started and is now unstoppable.
  23. Trichet is a genius. A strong man. I vote for him as king of Europe once all this mess is over.
  24. I'd agree that we have reached a top in gold. Coming from a bottom for the USD. I've posted arguments for this in other threads so I won't repeat here. Just wait and see.
  25. The problem is that if it looks like anything seriously bad will happen then Ben will jump in and cut rates again. As happened a few weeks ago when futures pointed to a big fall on the Dow. This will always have some effect, at least in the short term, until Ben has no bullets left. Then we have Japanese deflation. I'm not a cycles man, except in the longest sense. Kondratieff and long cycles based on the end of live experience of affairs. How many people are alive today who remember the Great Depression? The Second World War? Not many is the answer. This worries me. Off topic, sorry.
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