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House Price Crash Forum

Belfast Boy

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Everything posted by Belfast Boy

  1. Your welcome. Just remember the advice here is worth exactly what you paid for it. DYOR - do your own research.
  2. N.I. Nationwide data for people who prefer pictures
  3. For those who can't access spread sheets. From the Nationwide spread sheet - N.I. £ Q4 1973 7952 Q1 1974 8397 Q2 1974 8459 Q3 1974 8707 Q4 1974 9100 Q1 1975 9307 Q2 1975 9855 Q3 1975 10578 Q4 1975 11530 Q1 1976 12068 Q2 1976 12771 Q3 1976 13474 Q4 1976 13887 Q1 1977 14322 Q2 1977 15066 Q3 1977 15656 Q4 1977 15749 Q1 1978 16659 Q2 1978 17858 Q3 1978 19585 Q4 1978 19792 Q1 1979 20692 Q2 1979 21715 Q3 1979 22677 Q4 1979 23349 Q1 1980 24766 Q2 1980 24787 Q3 1980 24373 Q4 1980 23649 Q1 1981 23370 Q2 1981 23163 Q3 1981 22760 Q4 1981 22636 Q1 1982 23080 Q2 1982 23029 Q3 1982 22605 Q4 1982 22967 Q1 1983 23293 Q2 1983 23755 Q3 1983 24062 Q4 1983 24449 Q1 1984 25008 Q2 1984 25468 Q3 1984 25924 Q4 1984 26500 Q1 1985 27265 Q2 1985 27066 Q3 1985 27899 Q4 1985 27883 Q1 1986 27588 Q2 1986 28528 Q3 1986 28835 Q4 1986 28343 Q1 1987 27677 Q2 1987 29494 Q3 1987 28960 Q4 1987 27538 Q1 1988 27626 Q2 1988 28088 Q3 1988 27279 Q4 1988 28085 Q1 1989 27933 Q2 1989 29093 Q3 1989 28539 Q4 1989 28803 Q1 1990 29985 Q2 1990 29280 Q3 1990 27668 Q4 1990 29674 Q1 1991 30490 Q2 1991 30626 Q3 1991 31669 Q4 1991 30808 Q1 1992 31054 Q2 1992 32284 Q3 1992 33280 Q4 1992 33603 Q1 1993 34574 Q2 1993 36328 Q3 1993 36564 Q4 1993 35837 Q1 1994 37942 Q2 1994 37230 Q3 1994 39858 Q4 1994 38773 Q1 1995 37889 Q2 1995 40789 Q3 1995 40808 Q4 1995 42082 Q1 1996 41610 Q2 1996 45068 Q3 1996 46222 Q4 1996 47321 Q1 1997 48052 Q2 1997 50732 Q3 1997 51962 Q4 1997 52447 Q1 1998 53456 Q2 1998 57005 Q3 1998 54869 Q4 1998 57984 Q1 1999 59179 Q2 1999 60972 Q3 1999 64369 Q4 1999 61946 Q1 2000 65462 Q2 2000 70557 Q3 2000 70056 Q4 2000 71238 Q1 2001 72797 Q2 2001 76376 Q3 2001 76635 Q4 2001 73697 Q1 2002 76074 Q2 2002 82548 Q3 2002 83152 Q4 2002 85289 Q1 2003 86655 Q2 2003 90265 Q3 2003 92999 Q4 2003 94028 Q1 2004 97303 Q2 2004 103238 Q3 2004 107509 Q4 2004 110925 Q1 2005 109949 Q2 2005 117149 Q3 2005 119795 Q4 2005 125585 Q1 2006 129321 Q2 2006 146367 Q3 2006 159859 Q4 2006 181031 Q1 2007 203815 Q2 2007 225447 Q3 2007 227970 Q4 2007 224816 Q1 2008 196892 Q2 2008 183476 Q3 2008 159970 Q4 2008 147833 Q1 2009 138537 Q2 2009 135862 Q3 2009 147204 Q4 2009 137949 Q1 2010 134435 Q2 2010 128846 Q3 2010 130877 Q4 2010 124780 Q1 2011 119913 Q2 2011 123547 Q3 2011 118723 Q4 2011 113614 Q1 2012 109562 Q2 2012 110422 Q3 2012 107719 Q4 2012 104282 Q1 2013 108610 Q2 2013 108116 Q3 2013 108671 Q4 2013 111612 Q1 2014 114495 Q2 2014 117150 Q3 2014 119782 Q4 2014 120685 Q1 2015 121052 Q2 2015 126525 Q3 2015 127562 Q4 2015 128481 Q1 2016 123225 Q2 2016 128562 Q3 2016 130581 Q4 2016 129385 Q1 2017 127921 Q2 2017 133449 Q3 2017 133659 Q4 2017 131989 Q1 2018 137965 Q2 2018 136211 Q3 2018 139374 Q4 2018 139599 Q1 2019 142484 Q2 2019 143343 Q3 2019 144053 Q4 2019 141015 Q1 2020 143438
  4. Here is a link to the Nationwide data going back to 1973 - https://www.nationwide.co.uk/about/house-price-index/download-data#xtab:regional-quarterly-series-all-properties-data-available-from-1973-onwards
  5. I was wondering why the NISRA chart only started in 2005. Then I realised that's when LPS based their calculations for Rateable Values. You can see in the chart that house prices actually dipped below 2005 levels. I wonder if we will need to study data going back further than 2005. Good job we have this thread to look back at.
  6. I think it may be possible to contact LPS to find the previous selling prices of a property - for a small fee. It would be good to know this to see how much the seller can afford to drop their price. Especially in a buyers market.
  7. You may find this website useful - Residential Property Rateable Value - https://lpsni.gov.uk/vListDCV/search.asp?submit=form More information here - https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/valuation-of-domestic-properties-for-rates Those valuations were set at the beginning of 2005. I estimate that the previous bubble started at the beginning of 2002. House prices fell from 2007 to 2013 - roughly back to 2005 price levels.
  8. You knew not to trust your estate agent and did your own research. Not many people do that. Any seller that follows their estate agents advice will be chasing the market down.
  9. This may be more about timing than price i.e. 20% off current prices might look expensive in 2 years time. In 2013 house prices stopped falling. This coincided with a drop in unemployment. It would take a 30% fall to bring prices back to those levels. However, unemployment will be much, much higher this time. So house prices might fall below the 2013 level. There is so much uncertainty at the moment. It is too soon to know the economic impact of the lockdown. If it was me I would rent for 6-12months then look at the market again. It is highly unlikely that house prices will go up in that year. By this time next year it should be obvious which direction the housing market is going. Is that you with the HPC hat off? I agree.
  10. Paradoxically the health service has built up a fair amount of tinder.
  11. +1 It is impossible to forecast percentages drops and how many years the crash will take without factoring in unemployment and job security.
  12. Here is a chart for Northern Ireland from the NISRA (I checked - it is not a new paramilitary organisation - it's our ONS) This shows a 56.6% real fall, taking 5 years. You can even see a dead cat bounce after 18 months, that lasted 1 year. I do wonder if we are looking at the housing market crash the wrong way. The question is not how much? The question is how long? It takes time for the government and bank measures to take effect and put a floor under the market. I predicted that NI would fall 60-70% and take 3-7 years. You would still be waiting for a 60% fall. (Though by law of averages - some probably achieved this.) From the start of the crash - if you bought after 4 to 7 years you were within roughly 10% of the bottom (I haven't done the actual figures yet.) I was living in England during the 90's. I could not believe that house prices in the UK didn't follow a similar pattern after 2008. If a house price crash does not happen after the lockdown(s) it never will.
  13. The Irish government had to create a 'bad bank' during the last crisis - National Assets Management Agency (NAMA). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Asset_Management_Agency Several accusations of NAMA dirty dealing in the Irish press over the last 10 years. My guess is, the same crooks that caused the problem were put in charge of the bad bank.
  14. Sadly, yes. I was asked to be a mod, but felt I could not do it. So I asked Doccy and they were excellent. So I feel a bit responsible. While I didn't post much in the last years, I still read this forum. Maybe Doccy does too. Doccy could easily make a new account to send 'The Band' a message Also... where is p.p. ?
  15. It does feel like 2007 again. In 2008, I remember trying to tell someone that the housing market stalled in 2007 and prices where not going to go up any more. Therefore, prices would go down. They just didn't want to know. That's why I spent so much time on here. It will be interesting to see if people realise what is going to happen this time. Especially as a crash was experienced so recently.
  16. Sounds about right. We should know what direction the market is going by the middle of next year. It doesn't look like there is going to be much of a market this year. Spring is the time that most house sales usually happen. With transactions completed by the autumn. The housing market is slow moving so it will take several years to correct. In the Northern Ireland crash - most of the price falls happened in the first 3 years. It took over 5 years to reach the bottom. Of course, it will be different this time. So many people are experiencing an income shock and job security will worry many more.
  17. Are you being serious? In my experience they can't even get the 1 day forecast correct!
  18. "If all economists were laid end to end, they'd never reach a conclusion." George Bernard Shaw. "An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today." Laurence J. Peter. My favourite - "I'm not an economist and we all know economists were created to make weather forecasters look good." Rupert Murdoch.
  19. I feel like we are getting the band back together
  20. - unemployment and job security. - austerity. Many people will have a lot more to worry about than house prices. The Northern Ireland HPC bottomed when unemployment fell in 2013 after a 56.6% fall in house prices.
  21. 3: job security (if you have a job to back to).
  22. Estate agents (used car salesmen) in Northern Ireland think prices might fall 3-5% this year. Between 2007 and 2013 prices fell 56.6% and that was only a small credit crunch that nearly brought down the banks. The lockdown(s) might bring down our whole economy. Large parts of the service sector will take time to recover after the lockdown(s) and may never fully recover.
  23. What is your solicitor advising? I'm certain their estate agent and their solicitor want you to complete before the housing market crashes. Congratulations on finding this website. Finding this website helped save me a fortune.
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