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House Price Crash Forum

Belfast Boy

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Everything posted by Belfast Boy

  1. Me too. In 2007, if I had followed the mortgage advisor and estate agents "advice" I would currently be in massive negative equity with a jumbo self-cert (liar loan) mortgage. I just checked - the properties in the development are STILL half the price they were in 2007! Many of them are buy-to-lets! It still gives me chills just thinking about it.
  2. Yeah, that's the conclusion I came to yesterday, when they were telling another person to "go for it now!"
  3. I was surprised - with record low interest rates - that people needed to do this. Maybe they are dreaming that the market will recover back to credit bubble levels. No chance of that happening now. I'm sure the banks know these people will be repossessed in the future. These people would have been better handing back the keys and refusing to pay. Then I read about the 'mortgage prisoners'. Banks are not giving them low rates because they don't meet new lending criteria. I only discovered recently that they are doing this to my sister and her husband! They are being forced to pay over 6% on their mortgage! That makes my blood boil. ? That could have been me. I came so close to having a jumbo self-cert (liar loan) mortgage. I was just following the banks "advice".
  4. Sorry if this is a repost. There is some interesting information in this report from Feb 2018 - https://www.consumercouncil.org.uk/sites/default/files/2018-08/Research Report - Assessment of NI Mortgage Market.pdf "Given the high levels of negative equity and arrears it is not surprising that NI continues to have the highest repossession rates in the UK" "Of the 12 UK regions assessed, NI has the: - Highest proportion of home owners with a mortgage who switched to interest only mortgages during the term of their mortgage (most likely due to capital repayments becoming unaffordable); - Highest proportion of home owners with a mortgage in mortgage arrears; - Highest number of home owners in negative equity; and - Highest proportion of home owners with a mortgage considered to be ‘mortgage prisoners’." … all of that that won't be good post-lockdown. It's likely to get much worse as unemployment rises.
  5. Half the people I know are worried about their jobs.
  6. Upside vs downside risk. Does anyone think house prices are going up during this crisis? So waiting a year has very little risk, but could be very rewarding. What's another year...
  7. From what you are saying - realistically, they are never going to sell the house. I would be planning for them to stay in it. If they are not even prepared to market at 10% off, to attract interest, then there is no chance they will sell it. We have all listened all those arguments before "I'm not going to sell it for lest than it was worth" before a lockdown that caused massive unemployment and the economy to crash. It is understandable that people want the best possible price. Which is fine in a rising market. Just wait a year or two and prices will rise to meet expectations. It is completely different trying to sell in a falling market. Waiting for last years prices is not going to work. Not if you really want to sell. The housing market will move on without people who cannot face reality.
  8. I think it will be obvious by this time next year who is going to be right and who is going to be wrong. Good luck.
  9. It would still be prudent to wait a year and see, before indebting yourself for the rest of your working life. Your argument seems to be that it is better to get a mortgage now because it will be more difficult in a years time and house prices will remain high. Please explain to me how house prices will remain high if it becomes more difficult for everyone to get a mortgage? Surely those 2 things are mutually exclusive? I learned a new term yesterday 'Mortgage Prisoner'.
  10. I think we are going back to 2013 price levels very quickly. There certainly do seem to be people over in England who are experiencing FOMO and are wanting to complete before banks reduce lending. They don't seem to realise that the housing market will adjust down to what people can afford to pay. However, they did not experience a crash over there like we did here. So I doubt if many potential buyers here will be thinking the same way. Do you think that your parents understand that it will be a buyers market after the lockdown? Many people are going to lose their jobs and many more will have poor job security. People may even have to take pay cuts. So fewer people can borrow to buy a house. Banks are withdrawing mortgage products because of this. You mentioned that they are downsizing. So they will need a chain? So I would say they are stuck until the market gets moving again. The house should be marketed at 10% below current valuations. Be prepared to accept offers 10% below that. If you can attract buyers they may bid it up. However it sounds like your parents want this years price +10%. They are probably going to end up chasing the market down. From your personal point of view, it may be better to not get involved. They won't want to hear what you have to say and it might create ill will between you. Tricky one. (I have to be very careful when I try an help my dad. He is very stubborn. Especially, when we are all telling him he's wrong.)
  11. Great example of what I explained above. In Northern Ireland, the market stalled at the beginning of 2007. Yet prices did not drop initially - despite much lower transaction levels. There must have been a similar group of buyers in NI back then. They are still in deep negative equity 13 years later. During the biggest crisis in living memory, is it really a good time to buy a house?
  12. … perhaps. However, I have a feeling that is about to change. I'm not really concerned about my health (though there appears to be a very small percentage risk.) It's the older generation of my family that concerns me. I'm just not ready for any of them to go. Maybe I never will be ready.
  13. Really? OK… at this moment health... soon, (un)employment... soon after, loss of wealth. The everything bubble is going to unwind. You must not read this forum much
  14. This misquote of Rudyard Kipling applies so well to anyone who thinks it is a good idea to buy a house during this crisis - "If you can keep your head while all around you are losing theirs..." then you simply don't understand the 5hit we are all in! Sorry for the language. 50+ minutes on the naughty step for me
  15. For the majority of the UK - people under 50 have no real experience of what a proper house price crash is. I was studying in England 30 years ago. That was the last proper crash. I remember my friends telling me how much their properties had fallen in price. Roll on to 2007 and I decided to sell my house in Northern Ireland. I was shocked at the valuation and it was 'sale agreed' at 10% above asking price. Remembering what my friends in England told me in the early 90's - I typed 'house price crash' into google. What I found on this website both scared and fascinated me. The sale completed and I decided to become an STR for a few years just to see what happened. The Northern Ireland housing market crashed 56.5% in real terms in just over 5 years. In that time I met my wife and she already had a house. So my interest in the housing market became mostly academic. The Northern Ireland housing market stalled in early 2007. House prices remained high for all of 2007 even though sales volumes collapsed. There must have been transactions in the system that still completed at high prices. Before the market ran out of road and fell off a cliff in 2008. I am suggesting to people who read the Northern Ireland section of the forum that they rent for 1 year. There is little risk that house prices will go up in that period of time. I understand the arguments that it might become more difficult to borrow. If everyone is having the same difficulties then house prices will have to come down to what people can afford to pay. I am once again fascinated (and a little scared for different reasons) to see what happens next. I have a feeling that people are soon going to have a lot more to worry about than house prices.
  16. I doubt the mods would be interested in your post. I know as someone that used to comment on a lot of rubbish from property bulls and I even suffered some nasty personal attacks from them on the Northern Ireland section of the forum. Their silence is deafening during this crisis. So I sincerely doubt the mods are hiding posts. More likely something went wrong with the internet or the website. This website has been a full capacity for me a few times recently.
  17. IIRC prices remained high in 2007 even though volumes collapsed. There must have been transactions in the system that still completed at high prices. Before the market ran out of road and fell off a cliff in 2008. If this happens again the Vested Interests will, of course, point to that data and say that the housing market is fine. In an attempt to sucker people to buy. Though I doubt that anyone is going to believe them. This time we are experiencing a sudden economic shock and everyone knows that. So the falls may also be more sudden. I remember being laughed at in 2007 when I told people the housing market was going to crash. I doubt if anyone would think it was a silly idea this time. The tables have turned. Someone who is saying the market is not going to fall is more likely to be laughed at. I was expecting to experience schadenfreude. But I'm as worried as anyone. All our lives are going to change a lot. "If you can keep your head while all around you are losing theirs" Then you don't understand the 5hit we are all in! People are going to be worried about a lot more than house prices.
  18. That would require a 27% fall. Looking at the data/chart above - house prices appeared to stall for a full year in 2007 - with no significant movement. Then in Q1 2008 a £27,924 fall in just 3 months. I have a feeling that's what will happen when the housing market starts moving again. It will "gap down".
  19. Thank you. It's good to have some real life examples.
  20. The lenders are going to be checking that. No more self cert. Might even affect guarantor backed lending.
  21. Some interesting reference points from the Nationwide data for Northern Ireland - Q1 2001 - £72,797 - prices would triple from this point, in under 7 years - see Q3 2007 Q2 2004 - £103,238 - prices almost returned to this level Q1 2005 - £109,949 - rateable values were set this year, prices more than doubled from this level in under 3 years Q3 2007 - £227,970 - market top Q4 2012 - £104,282 - prices dropped 54% in just over 5 Q1 2020 - £143,438 - £39,156 increase in 7 years or 37.5%
  22. If you don't mind me asking - how close to RV was the house you bought in 2012?
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