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House Price Crash Forum

Belfast Boy

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Everything posted by Belfast Boy

  1. "Northern Ireland business survey records biggest sales and output crash in 20 years." https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/northern-ireland-business-survey-records-biggest-sales-and-output-crash-in-20-years-39128586.html "But the survey took place largely before Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a full UK-wide lockdown." So the next one is going to be much, much worse.
  2. "Almost two fifths of Northern Ireland small businesses fear they will not reopen, survey finds." https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/almost-two-fifths-of-northern-ireland-small-businesses-fear-they-will-not-reopen-survey-finds-39202466.html "In response to the strain being placed on them, almost half (46%) have either made, or are considering, redundancies."
  3. "Two in five NI firms 'fear they will not reopen' amid coronavirus pandemic." https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/ulsterbusiness/analysis/two-in-five-ni-firms-fear-they-will-not-reopen-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-39203031.html http://www.irishnews.com/business/2020/05/13/news/two-in-five-small-firms-in-northern-ireland-may-never-open-again---fsb-1936117/ "TWO in five small businesses in Northern Ireland fear they will never open again while nearly half are considering redundancies as they struggle to pay bills, a survey has found."
  4. "Auctioneer's Comments This property is for sale by the Modern Method of Auction. Should you view, offer or bid on the property, your information will be shared with the Auctioneer, iamsold." I've never herd of "iamsold" so I had a look at their website. "September 2009 - Ben Ridgway and Jamie Cooke set up the IAM Sold business, with ambitious plans to become a dominant part of the property auction scene."
  5. You were being generous under the circumstances. Your seller will regret not accepting your offer in a years time. Without giving specifics - what percentage above rateable value was the property?
  6. Currently they are probably right. The figures may even back that up for another 3-6 months as current transactions complete. However, transactions are about to fall off a cliff. Followed by house prices.
  7. Do you really think Brexit would have had the same effect on house prices as the pandemic? I seriously doubt that. The effects of the pandemic will be an order of magnitude greater. The effects of Brexit are now just noise. (Though there certainly is still a lot of Brexit noise on this forum. )
  8. Even though the housing market in Northern Ireland stalled at the beginning of 2007, there were no significant drops until the following year. Though, this time, the economy hasn't so much stalled as fell off a cliff. Perhaps house prices will do the same.
  9. Yeah, that's one you'd want to see before putting in a low bid!
  10. I don't think auctions use the same rules. You bid and win - it's yours! Maybe I'm wrong?
  11. https://www.propertypal.com/244-islandmore-crescent-gateside-road-portrush/611099 The roof windows would suggest a loft conversion. You can't just cut out the middle of standard roof trusses without weakening the roof structure. That is why steel is needed for reinforcement. This probably has to be mentioned legally. Maybe some sucker won't realise the implications until it's too late.
  12. When my last house was being built using standard roof trusses, there was an option to upgrade to attic trusses. I didn't bother. One of my neighbours in the development did a loft conversion. It was fascinating watching the steel beams being inserted by crane through holes in the side of the house to support the roof. I'm fairly certain if you do an attic conversion without building control and the necessary reinforcement - then you have messed with something structural. Something that will take a lot of money to put right.
  13. I was looking at the Portrush property out of curiosity as I regularly drive that road. The rateable value is £95K and it's for auction at £70k. Relatively cheap at this moment. Then I noticed this - "The property has been extended into the eaves however, we cannot confirm it would meet with Building Control Regultions." Caveat emptor - let the buyer beware.
  14. There is a cached link on google. It appears that Wilsons tried a Virtual National Property Auction on 22nd April 2020. The Portrush property in my first link was in it. So it looks like they have rescheduled to 28th May, hoping the lockdown will have ended by then. I'm sure they want to get those sold ASAP before the bad economic news really starts.
  15. I was reading this on another forum and remembered your post... "Before all this kicked off I spoke to one estate agent about a new development in South Dublin that was of interest to me and five of the nine properties that met my criteria already had deposits from Chinese buyers. I wonder if these buyers have now pulled out (if indeed they were real in the first place!)." I was wondering how Dublin house prices were 9 times income when their central bank has a mortgage rule of 3.5 joint income. Canny Chinese investors.
  16. Delayed, postponed, rescheduled... who knows. Though they may want to test the water sooner rather than later.
  17. Can't read the whole thing, but you get the idea... "House prices not overvalued despite 85% hike since 2013, ESRI says." https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-not-overvalued-despite-85-hike-since-2013-esri-says-1.4081013?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fhouse-prices-not-overvalued-despite-85-hike-since-2013-esri-says-1.4081013
  18. Sept 2019 - "Dublin house prices now falling for first time in seven years." https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/dublin-house-prices-now-falling-for-first-time-in-seven-years-1.4016008 "This is the first time prices in Dublin have fallen on an annual basis since October 2012."
  19. *** bump *** The last time Northern Ireland faced a house price crash we looks at other housing markets to provide clues.
  20. Yep, I enjoyed the debate, back in the day. Very few in Northern Ireland saw a HPC of over 50% taking 5 years. Once again we are standing at the top of a cliff looking down. This time I have absolutely no idea where the bottom is.
  21. One to watch - 28th May 2020. https://www.wilsonsauctions.com/auctions/land-property/AuctionEvent?saleCode=204508&location=Belfast
  22. *** bump *** Found this on page 39. Another topic that is suddenly relevant.
  23. The N.I. economy is aligned with the UK. So I think we will follow the UK this time round. Excluding Belfast, most areas here are not far from being what I think is genuinely affordable. While Belfast will see the biggest falls here, I don't think it will be nearly as bad as Dublin. London and southeast England are a different league regarding affordability. Though I expect all places to have high unemployment and that will drag prices down. The only thing that may stop it is the government, but they may have bigger problems. https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/dublin-house-prices-more-than-nine-times-the-average-salary-1.3858878 "Dublin house prices more than nine times the average salary" https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-house-prices-average-earning-ratio-latest-unaffordable-housing-crisis-a8323086.html "London houses are even more out of reach for most people with the average price relative to average earnings stretching to 13.24, up from 12.91 in 2016." Northern Ireland still has a hangover from the 2008 crash - https://www.consumercouncil.org.uk/sites/default/files/2018-08/Research Report - Assessment of NI Mortgage Market.pdf "Given the high levels of negative equity and arrears it is not surprising that NI continues to have the highest repossession rates in the UK" "Of the 12 UK regions assessed, NI has the: - Highest proportion of home owners with a mortgage who switched to interest only mortgages during the term of their mortgage (most likely due to capital repayments becoming unaffordable); - Highest proportion of home owners with a mortgage in mortgage arrears; - Highest number of home owners in negative equity; and - Highest proportion of home owners with a mortgage considered to be ‘mortgage prisoners’."
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