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House Price Crash Forum

Belfast Boy

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Everything posted by Belfast Boy

  1. "NI unemployment almost doubles in coronavirus wake, figures show." https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/ni-unemployment-almost-doubles-in-coronavirus-wake-figures-show-39217093.html "... the highest monthly increase since records began... " "Ulster Bank economist Richard Ramsey said it was likely the 7.3% peak of December 2012 in unemployment figures would be surpassed in May/June."
  2. I was beginning to think you were stuck in a foreign country. Have you just been repatriated? Welcome back.
  3. On the iPhone their ad banner appears multiple times on top text I'm trying to read. Though a pinch zoom seems to sort it out. It's the ads on my PC that really irritate me. Lots of pictures of sick people from India. I have a large monitor so they were hard to ignore. They resulted in me downloading an ad blocker just for this website.
  4. "The Job Retention Scheme is preventing mass unemployment... protecting jobs and incomes, which limits the extent of the price falls... it's what happens in the long run to business and the extent of that increase in unemployment."
  5. I take that back - the still photos are dark blue. That's how bad the video is - it looked grey on my monitor.
  6. Yeah, decorated by Jamie Dornan = Fifty Shades of Grey.
  7. lol, me too. They need a phone gimbal and a camera with better low light video and possibly an ultrawide lens - maybe an iPhone 11 with deep fusion.
  8. This is the important bit - "The Job Retention Scheme is preventing mass unemployment... protecting jobs and incomes, which limits the extent of the price falls... it's what happens in the long run to business and the extent of that increase in unemployment." Yeah, as a homeowner, why are you here?
  9. I'm sorry, you really need to listen to that again. He said that - in the short term - he expects low offers of 5% to 10% off. He then went on to say it's all about the labour market in the long term. He even mentioned possible unemployment of 20% to 25%. What I heard was all realistic. I didn't hear any of the usual BS we expect from some vested interests. You know what I'm like - I was called the HPC attack dog. Are you wanting my job? Maybe I've mellowed as I got older.
  10. Sorry, that's not really what he said. 12m30sec - 17m20sec I though Jordan Buchannan from PropertyPal spoke clearly and was realistic. This makes total sense at 16:50 "The Job Retention Scheme is preventing mass unemployment... protecting jobs and incomes, which limits the extent of the price falls... it's what happens in the long run to business and the extent of that increase in unemployment." I think he does realise what could happen.
  11. No. Total change of circumstances. I'll send you a PM.
  12. My calculations show it was a 44% increase in 7 years. Boom or no boom - there is going to be a bust!
  13. Bruce Banner - on the main forum - made a good point about some posters, "They don't want to engage with the members, they're posting to influence the guests."
  14. From last month... "Northern Ireland property market: ‘No boom, therefore no crash’ https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/ulsterbusiness/analysis/northern-ireland-property-market-no-boom-therefore-no-crash- Estate agent says - "That's the difference. There hasn't been a property boom so there won't be a property crash." Belfast Boy says - The difference this time will be higher unemployment, increased businesses bankruptcies , higher repossessions, lower bank lending. Under those circumstances, current house prices are unsustainable.
  15. Well... history would indicate that this will take longer than 9 months. So I'm sure she knows better. It's just a fluff piece - telling some of the readers what they want to hear. Rather than being based on any economic or historic facts. History would suggest the crash will take 5 years.
  16. “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” - Upton Sinclair. Estate Agents always give a positive public perception. However, they are going to have to tell the vendors the facts. All of this information is coming out while NI is still in lockdown. And look at the Daily Mail articles about buyers demanding 20% reductions and lenders withdrawing offers. That's bound to happen here too. This is the beginning of the start of the crash that will not show for several months.
  17. I know someone who lost their business and was repossessed after the 2008 financial crash. A married man with 3 girls still in school. So many businesses are going to fail after the Covid lockdown crash. It's going to be devastating.
  18. "If there is money left over after the full mortgage debt and all other costs have been paid, the balance of the sale proceeds should be returned to the borrower." Though, I wonder did they borrow against the house to finance the business?
  19. "Coronavirus: Northern Ireland economic recovery to take years, says economist Esmond Birnie." https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-northern-ireland-economic-recovery-to-take-years-says-economist-esmond-birnie-39204699.html "The last recession in NI, the one which followed the banking crisis, was extremely protracted. According to the official measure of the volume of regional output, output peaked in Quarter 2 2007 and then declined all the way through to Quarter 2 2013." We know house prices didn't stop falling until 2013. Chicken and egg scenario - which came first economic recovery or housing market recovery. (Of course the answer is the Rooster )
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