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House Price Crash Forum

Belfast Boy

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Everything posted by Belfast Boy

  1. Yes, but the change will mean a lot of pain for a lot of people. That is not something to be happy about.
  2. I would say they gambled 12 years ago and it worked. So this time they doubled down. The questions is: will it work again? At what point will the central banks lose all credibility? In 2008/9 it was the American subprime crisis that led to the financial crisis. After which China's economy barely slowed. Can we rely on China to pull us all out of another economic mess? A mess that we can easily blame on them. Interesting times.
  3. It was optimistic. Studying our last HPC it appears that unemployment and house prices are linked. House prices in Northern Ireland stopped falling at the same time employment started rising. As I just said on the main forum - I don't think there is going to be anything average, or typical, about the next few years. If the survey indicates that people expect a large fall in house prices - it will be interesting to see if it is mentioned.
  4. I remember reading a study into house price corrections. Sorry can't find a link now. The report looked at 50 house price corrections. On average the corrections lasted between 3-7 years. IIRC they typically lost 70% of the price gains. However, this pandemic is a once-in-a-lifetime event. So I don't think there is going to be anything average, or typical, about the next few years. Having said that, we had a record boom and bust in Northern Ireland. House prices tripled in 7 years. Then halved again in 5 years. The majority of the price falles happened in the first 3 years. House prices in Northern Ireland stopped falling at the same time employment started rising. So unemployment may be a key factor to look at.
  5. He said 5%-7% over the next few months then goes on to discuss medium to long term.
  6. Yes, so many lines have been crossed and rules have been broken at the highest levels. I keep hoping it will be different this time, but they are doubling down on what we think are mistakes. Where (when) will it all end?
  7. A video discussing the property market... 11m to 12m30sec - the propertypal survey and how Covid-19 has affected peoples' housing requirements. Obviously people now want houses that are detached, have large gardens and good wifi. 28m to 31m40sec - house prices > unemployment > will have implications for the housing market. 36m45sec to 39m40sec - worst case scenario 15% decline in house prices.
  8. FFS Fine, do that on the politics forum. This thread has NOTHING to do with "House prices and the Economy". It full of spiteful people, making spiteful comments, who obviously have an agenda!
  9. +1 This thread should be in the politics forum. It is only important to you and a few others who keep bumping this thread in the vain hope of keeping this current. Some people will never... … sing along.
  10. This is a once in a lifetime event. Lots of things are going to change.
  11. … near the balls on the Falls, where you can go up Broadway, there are 3 sure things in life - death, taxes and student nurses. Only a local will get those 3 references
  12. Hmmm... How about... I voted for Brexit and I believe he acted in the best interest of his 4 year old child. I did not vote for Brexit and am an undemocratic cry baby.
  13. Where are the moderators? This thread belongs in the "off topic" section. This forum is being turned into a political commentary forum.
  14. https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/uk-world/london-house-prices-increase-at-fastest-rate-since-2016-39220378.html "The March figures also show that average prices increased over the year in... Northern Ireland to £141,000 (3.8%)." Prices continue to rise on dwindling volumes.
  15. BBC radio - Stephen Nolan (I know, I know... I never listen to him... someone told me about it.) Interviewing BBC Economics and Business Editor John Campbell. https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000j75c 1h14m to 1h19:30sec 1h17:40sec The big picture is the overall state of the economy.... unemployment going up = less demand... banks reducing supply of credit = less demand... housing market prices likely to be on a downward trajectory.
  16. "Fears mass lay-offs on horizon as staff return to factories in Northern Ireland." https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/fears-mass-lay-offs-on-horizon-as-staff-return-to-factories-in-northern-ireland-39215806.html "The furloughing really only picks up a third of costs; for the rest you have raw materials and then other expenses like repayments for your existing borrowing along with your electricity, stock and other standing charges,"
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