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Everything posted by loafer

  1. In other news, doctors wouldn't be doctors if they were killed if their patients died. I'm not saying the balance is right, but bankers are supposed to take calculated risks, that is why they get a margin. If bankers only did risk free deals, the economy would grind to a halt very quickly. Much like it is now.
  2. They were not the only bankers to see it coming. I raised this issue with the Economics department and with two senior executives of my Bank in Autumn 2006 and early 2007. The Economics department said everything was going to be fine, mainly because economists always draw a straight line from today's trend line as their method of predicting the future, and therefore never predict a sudden change in direction. By contrast, the Senior Execs knew all about the upcoming problem. What neither they, nor even I (and I was bearish enough to sell up), thought is that it would be this bad, mainly b
  3. Actually, I agree. Life is all about family, not about money. Mind you, it's only when you've got it, that you have the luxury to look at it that way...
  4. Whilst not quite on the same scale as numpty, I also work in the City. In answer to your questions; people in your position with £x100K and a paid up house are apprehensive Everyone is apprehensive in the City - it is the fear of the unknown. Like numpty, I have enough to live on, probably permanently if I really needed to, but I rather enjoy my job, so I'd rather not lose it. Plus, the moneys good.; most sheeple, oblivious city folk and BTL are screwed;For sure. priced outs are angry and bitter;Certainly, and an HPC isn't going to change that. and STRs are often battling landlor
  5. Britain's mortgage market needs a solution By Willem Buiter Last Updated: 8:42am BST 14/04/2008 Without intending harm to the avian population, it is sometimes good to kill two birds with one stone. The housing sector is in crisis. Official action is required. That is the first financial bird. The pension fund sector and other institutional investors with long-term liabilities want the Government to issue more index-linked long-term securities. The Government also needs to issue longevity bonds (securities whose interest rate is linked to the survival rates or life expectancies of certain
  6. I believe Tesco are upset because the structure saved them £23m of tax, not £1bn.
  7. No, no, no. The German banking sector is far, far worse than virtually everywhere else. Have a look at today's FT Alphaville for just one reason (regarding the Landesbanks) why you are wrong.
  8. Your decision should be simply based on "do I get more benefit from renting or selling at a discounted price?". I had a house under offer some time ago, and discovered it was non-standard construction. Whilst I could afford to virtually buy it for cash, it would have been crazy to do so due to the risks if I ever wanted to move again. Given the prices you are indicating at auction, I suspect renting will give you a very attractive return in comparison to selling. Perhaps you could offer it to the council or housing associations at a slightly discounted rent in return for them giving you a
  9. Interesting ideas coming out of the crunch... http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/ro...ext_crunch.html Robert Peston 8 Apr 08, 09:33 AM We may not yet be free of the ill effects of the credit crunch, but how do we prevent it happening again? Well George Osborne has a plan – though it’s still in the work-in-progress file, which is presumably why it was unveiled many miles from home in a speech he gave last night at Harvard. This speech may, however, turn out to be Osborne’s most significant policy speech as shadow chancellor. In it he signalled a willingness to consider radical reform of
  10. Does the chap on my train with the box full of desk things count as a sign...?
  11. At least if he's a troll, he can spell. He took the time to use the right "ï" in naïve. For that reason, and that reason only, I gave him the benefit of the doubt!
  12. You need a lawyer and you need to get out of the contract. Now.
  13. I don't think "bonds" are covered by the FSCS anyway, only deposits? I wouldn't worry - they won't privatise overnight, you should get plenty of notice. If it's any consolation, I have considerably more than you with them and I'm not worried.
  14. You're right. Things got pretty rocky over there ;-) More seriously, it was just over a year ago when I was following thehousingbubbleblog.com every day, and this was big news all the time.
  15. Irwin Seltzer used to be just as bad about the US economy in the column next to Smith's in the Sunday Times, but even he turned bearish a few weeks ago.
  16. I think what he might be trying to say is that deals written now are at great margins, but the cost of money is high reducing net margin in the short term. When the cost of money drops, we will make lots more margin.
  17. I don't know about you, but I have an equal relationship with my wife. It was a joint decision. Why should it, if it is a joint decision? What on earth are you talking about?! Why should STRs be more likely to divorce than homeowners?! If anything, we are less stressed because we don't have an increasingly expensive mortgage to worry about! I very much doubt it. See my earlier post about opportunity cost of capital.
  18. IF IF IF. It's all about opportunity cost of capital (not income, like food). Prices are going down, and therefore if you STR, you can buy more as time goes by. Why do you hate STR's so? Is it jealousy of not having the courage of your convictions?
  19. I read somewhere today that the Scandi banks were getting caught by the wash from the Icelandic Krona crisis. Given they have, up to now, been sailing forth like nothing happened, it is interesting to see the ripples starting to hit outlying areas. That's enough nautical metaphors for now...
  20. I can't be bothered to read an article written by someone who can't even spell "lose".
  21. I've done a bit of analysis over the years, and I think 20-30% down. More interesting is the analysis I just did on the commercial market which shows a mirror image of the 1990's bubble/crash, with a short run up and long tail last time comparing to a long run up and likely short tail this time. If the same theory works for residential, the next 12 months could be pretty brutal for the resi market.
  22. I was worried there for a minute, because I was agreeing with Eric Pebble, but thanks to right_freds_dead, I know I haven't really joined the lunatic fringe... ;-)
  23. Also none of the above. I made an informed move out of the market at the peak, coinciding with a decision to move out of London (which came first? who knows? I think the decision to STR prompted the decision to move out) and am waiting for prices to return to worth before buying again. If they didn't go down, I would still buy back in, because it would be my family home, not an investment, but I do not think stable prices are likely (or desirable for the wider economy, or the general population for that matter), and so far, my judgement is being proved right.
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