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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by loafer

  1. Peak population. ETA you *LIKE* mung beans? Dear God.
  2. I agree with almost everything EDM writes, but on the Euro I'm with RB. At worst it will break up, and at best it is in for a torrid time as the differing economic pressures stretch it to the limit.
  3. My pleasure ;-) If you want the detailed arguments, the one that most annoyed me was that he was saying that oil producing countries were going to need the oil revenues due to recession (vis Abu Dhabi helping Dubai, or Venezuela paying for public expenditure), therefore less expenditure on finding new oil. This is not unreasonable as a Janet & John point, but fails to note that if they need the oil revenues badly enough (which they do), they are going to pump more of the stuff, and that the latent unfound oil still remains latent. On a related issue, I think the most important invention
  4. I listened to the interview with the analyst from DKB on R4 this morning and I've never heard such contradictory nonsense in all my life. Peak oil my @rse.
  5. It varies, but I saw a lovely quote in a paper today, which was that old style banking was based on 3-6-3, which was give your depositors 3%, lend it out at 6% and be on the golf course by 3pm!
  6. Can't beat a bit of HHGTTG What he and I mean is that the majority of "losses" which have been incurred by banks so far have been Mark to Market. Basically, under fairly recently introduced accounting rules, if I lend you £100 at Libor + 1%, and then, a year later, with 24 years remaining on the loan, it would be written at Libor + 2%, because everyone is feeling nervous, then my loan, that I lent to you, if now recorded in my accounts as being worth (simplistically) £76. You can probably still pay me back. You almost certainly will. I still have to record a loss in my accounts of £24. The
  7. No. I am saying that 8% is a gross number and not the net one and that quoting huge gross figures is pointless.
  8. Bank borrows money at Libor + credit spread and lends money at Libor + credit spread. The trick is for the spread of the former to be smaller than the spread of the latter. The gross number is about as useful as a chocolate teapot, but don't let that stop you try to whip people up into a frenzy...
  9. Furthermore, of the £28bn, something like £20bn was writing off goodwill - an accounting issue. Of the remaining £8bn, much of it will be Mark to Market, not actual credit losses (yet).
  10. Will be virtually the same. The issue is only where there are credit losses (not MtM losses), and only time will tell that. This place becomes more and more like a bunch of hysterical mouth breathers every day.
  11. Mainly because, whilst it is true that we are up sh!t creek without a paddle, the euro and dollar canoes are with us too...
  12. Is it unique, or are there many similar like it. If the latter, be more sanguine and only buy if you really think it's time, as there will always be another one along soon, and we are not going to see a huge rebound, so you have lots of decision time. More importantly, what did similar houses sell for in 2002/03, because that is where, IMHO, prices are headed?
  13. Top end of the market is dead. Anything over £2k per month isn't shifting at all, and so cheeky offers are the order of the day...
  14. I think they moved production of the crystal to Poland? Was the china still made in the UK?
  15. Given Nat Rothschild was last heard trying to develop some huge uber-luxury marina in the Balkans, I suspect he will be hurt more than most.
  16. 11,692,000 mortgages out there of which 168,000 are more than 3 months in arrears according to the CML site (Q3 data) Stat Sheet AP7.
  17. http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/pol...d-200811241415/ BROWN TO GAMBLE ON YOU BEING RETARDED Brown is urging voters to check out this toffee-nosed ponce GORDON Brown will today gamble on you buying things you don't need because they are slightly cheaper, and then believing that rich people are going to pay for it all. The government is expected to cut the price of novelty smoothie makers from £24.99 to £24.36 while at the same time increasing income tax for the hoity-toity chairman of the company that produces novelty smoothie makers. In his pre-Budget report, chancellor Alist
  18. Decouple? In what sense exactly? To what extent has it been "coupled"? The £ has dropped against the €, but, if anything after today's German PMI, it's more likely to move the other way. As another poster said, "don't give up your day job".
  19. 4.3% per annum for 7 years? Tosh. 14% pa for the next 2 years is more like it.
  20. I wouldn't touch them with a 10ft bargepole.
  21. It means NR have stopped writing new mortgages (no sh!t, Sherlock) and that therefore the Granite structure stops being topped up and starts running off. It is not very exciting or unexpected.
  22. Someone who should know once told me that in some of the big developments, 2/3rds of apartments have never drawn any electricity. That means that, since being sold, no-one has even opened the front door and switched on a light. Basically it is one big money laundering machine for the Middle East & Russia.
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