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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by loafer

  1. I have absolutely no idea on Global Warming v. Cooling, but by complete conicidence, I found the following article on another forum, just after reading this thread. http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financi...8db11f4&p=4 It gives details on sea sediment core sample analysis correlating sun and Earth's temperature.
  2. It's "too" you illiterate idiot. And if you don't like the UK, move. You'll make it better for those of us who stay.
  3. BUT the OP said they have £180,000 to invest, therefore £10,800 per annum at 6%. Virtually any inflation would kill their income quickly.
  4. I'm not sure the US is implementing Basle 2 in the same way as everyone else. Didn't they opt out, or was that just the huge morass of smaller ones (who arguably need it most!) Certainly at my bank, we rate the Hedge Funds pretty harshly from a counterparty credit perspective and then apply appropriate LGD's which make their debt pretty expensive. Regards, Loafer
  5. Very true. Gut feel is very important, and my gut tells me that the German market is overblown. The trouble with Berlin is that it is an under-developed city with easy access to cheap labour so there is virtually limitless supply potential in the medium term. This, combined with the latent supply from refurbing the East Berlin stock, and the fractionalisation portfolios (who sell to tenants, thereby bypassing the open market!) adds up to little potential for value growth. Loafer
  6. I've only done deals in the direct market, not indirect, but from that perspective, the Japanese market is reasonably healthy with rising rents and low supply in all sectors in the major conurbations. There are still massive problems in the "company cities" from which large corporates retrenched during their decade long recession, so be aware of that. In terms of yield, there seems to be a wide divergence of view, and with yields as low as they are, just a small percentage difference makes a large mulitplier difference, so intrinsically there is valuation volatility risk. They also (like th
  7. I am a recent joiner to this site - I have been more concerned with the US market, but seeing how that is now triggered, I thought I would start looking closer to home. I wasn't a bear in 2004 - I bought in 2003 and sold 2 months ago at a c.90% profit. I'm now renting. I am a highly experienced international real estate banker who has done deals in places as diverse as Finland, Japan, Germany, France, Italy... Forgive me, I can't be bothered to look through all of your many contributions to the site, and I am sure they are very valuable, but I'm not clear why you are so sure or what your ex
  8. A few other points which might be of interest: The US & UK private equity/investment bank boys have already been in and bought huge estates of rented flats for fractionalisation, so supply is pretty massive, and they are having trouble finding demand as people like renting and don't see any advantages in buying. When I looked at buying a large block for my bank in Charlottenburg, Berlin about 6 years ago, it was clear that big parts of the market are based on mortgage fraud. Germany is a country of contrasts, on the one hand law abiding and efficient and on the other arguably more corru
  9. The decision to hold or sell is dependent on your view of the market and the opportunity cost of capital. Your profile says you are a "Bear", so that should give you an indication! The simplest calculation you should make is based on the rental yield (say 4%) + anticipated average capital growth over the period you want to hold. If you really are a bear, and the hold period is, say, 3 years and you expect the market to decline in value by 30% over those three years, your total return is: 4 - 10 = -6% per annum. Contrast this with savings rates of +6%, and your decision is quite easy. Cl
  10. As you will know, the crash is worse over there, so I hope they don't rush into anything. I didn't manage to persuade a colleague of mine returning to the US to hold off, but there are emotional as well as practical issues tied in with real estate... Loafer
  11. Anecdotally, that is what a solicitor friend of mine said was happening with his firms clients - note it's a pretty major firm, so not necessarily representative. His view was that the brighter of his clients had judged the market was peaking and were getting equity out while they could. Loafer
  12. My view is that Wandsworth/Clapham is most vulnerable, as there are literally thousands of identical Victorian bay fronted houses worth £1m, which cannot be sustainable. Mind you, it might be worse in North London, I just don't know it as well. Loafer
  13. I agree, that's why we sold about 2 months ago in Central London and are currently renting a very nice house in Kent! BTW, I should point out I am a Chartered Surveyor, and a Real Estate Banker... Regards, Loafer
  14. My first post! I watch the US housing bubble blog (www.thehousingbubbleblog.com), and am shamelessly copying over this link from there http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...xw&refer=uk London House Prices Rise at Slowest in Five Months (Update1) By Svenja O'Donnell June 18 (Bloomberg) -- London house prices rose at the slowest pace in five months in June as the cost of a home fell in more than half of the U.K. capital's boroughs, Rightmove Plc said. Asking prices increased 0.7 percent from a month earlier to 387,898 pounds ($764,000), half the pace of May, as values fell in 17
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