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Everything posted by loafer

  1. I met with 2 top 10 housebuilder CEOs last week. One was proposing to do a bulk trade into a private rental fund to cut stock and deleverage. The other one confirmed that they had good sales activity because there was no private stock on the market so virtually all buyers needed to buy new. He was bearish going forwards.
  2. An increasing market gilt yield has two impacts. On new issuance, the government has to pay the higher market rate. On issuance already in the market (i.e. sold previously) the government still pays the original rate and the value of the gilts reduces so that someone buying them today get's the same effective rate. This effective rate is a mix of the interest paid by the government and received by the noteholder and the fact that the noteholder would pay, say, 98p in the £ and get back 100p in the £ when the gilt reeems. Thus, when gilt rates increase, they do not immediately increase the
  3. Here's a second helping... http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421
  4. What have I ever done to you?
  5. I do object to numpties driving small cars at 40mph on both sweeping A roads and in villages. The amount of destructive energy they carry is phenominal.
  6. Hi, Noel. I like your thinking, but they only go down to E220 don't they? Mind you, how about a 6.2l with "Blue Efficiency" badges? Shame the noise would give you away...
  7. Surely HPC is full of contrarians, in which case we should be buying 5 litre 4x4's? That's the way I'm thinking, anyway.
  8. Because the value of the bonds they already own will fall to reflect the higher market yield.
  9. No, you muppet! I'll explain. I met a guy who manages repos for banks. He lets some and sells some, depending upon the strategy of the instructing bank. The disclosed stats in a certain recent month say that all of the banks repoed, say, 1,000 BTLs in one month, yet in the same month he alone was instructed on more than 1,000 properties. This means that, as he is just one of several organisations doing this job, the stats must be underplaying what is going on. Better?
  10. I met a chap today who manages repossessed properties for the banks. He mentioned that recently the number of BTL repossessions was announced by and industry organisation for that month, and that in the very same month he had had more than that passed to him to manage alone...
  11. Gilts pay through their life, and then return the face value at the end. In this case they pay 4.25% on nominal face value. As the prevailing yield is slightly higher than nominal, it means the price is a little below 100p in the £, so if you bought the gilt for 95p, you would receive 4.25p per year, plus 100p in 25 years.
  12. Actually not. The prevailing yield on 25 year 4.25% gilts is c.4.6%, so the price implies c.4.7%.
  13. Yes, I agree with that. The increasing age before people have kids is an interesting one, particularly for higher income brackets. Lots of professional women leaving it until later to have kids.
  14. Certainly this is prime South East, commuting into the City, so your last point is true, subject to the proviso that it is all about affordability for the buyer of that type of property that is the key. Moving on to your main point, I chose 50 as an age because it felt about right, but I concede that 45 might be more like it. Many people nowadays who are 45 have kids sub-10 years old around where I live, so a family house is right, and downsizing only really kicks in post retirement in my view. In any event, the key issue is that even with my assumptions, the house I rent is still c.25% ove
  15. Ha ha! In answer; 1 I completely agree, but your average house purchaser does not understand the opportunity cost of capital 2 Not a £950k one, IMHO. You have to be earning relatively big bucks. Happy to bring it down a bit if you like. 3 True, but if you look at your typical purchaser of this type of house, they will have 20-25 years of a market behind them, with many ups and many downs, but more ups than downs. 4 You say arbitrary, I say judgement ;-). You are right that the number I have picked is arbitary, but it is based on the sort of finances I know my friends have, and who might
  16. Au contraire. It's May Bridge season, when bank holidays are in the middle of weeks, and no-one works the bridge to the w/e.
  17. Rent £2600 which gives £423k, roughly 50% of current value. When I calculate this, I always add the approximate amount of equity a typical purchaser would have built up, so, in my case a 50 year old's family, probably built up £250k at least, giving a total value of c.£700k. Good thread BTW.
  18. This is a long way - probably 12 months at least - from fruition. L&G came up with an idea and the HCA have now put the idea out to tender, so it is now lost in the morass of government, not least because everyone knows that the HCA will be first against the wall under a new government.
  19. Since when? And what was it 12 months ago? If we are using anecdotals as a measure, I do know that my Merc costs £70 to fill up now and was £100 to fill up last year...
  20. Let's take one of your examples - Diesel. Why will there be inflation from Diesel? Falling demand is admittedly offset by limited refining capacity, but most importantly the oil price has dropped from $110 to $53 in the last 12 months. And before you say "FX", those figures are £55 and £36 respectively in their spot GBP rates. I don't see it.
  21. Except, of course, the original text was written about the United States. I don't "perk", nor do I use an "electric skillet".
  22. Don't save the text, save the PDF itself. Whilst Vince might have blacked out sections to save blushes, the actual text is copyable underneath... ;-)
  23. Where from, exactly? What sort of products are going to increase in price and why?
  24. The average median house price for "home movers" implied by the CML data fell by over 6.5% between January & February. FTB house price was slightly down (<1%).
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