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Captain Coma

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Everything posted by Captain Coma

  1. "To take a longer term perspective it is well known – from basic macro theory – that the equity market reaction to poor growth news is ambiguous. Lower than expected growth lead to a higher stock market value via the “interest rate channel” and to a lower stock market value via the “profits/earnings channel”. The former effect derives from the fact that bad economic news increase the probability that the Fed will ease monetary policy and thus stimulate the economy, demand and profits. The latter channel derives from the fact that slower growth – or even worse an outright recession – will lead to lower demand, lower revenues and lower profits. Indeed, as stock prices are forwards looking and equal to the discounted value of dividends where the discount rate is related to an appropriate measure of interest rates, bad growth news affect the numerator and denominator of the ratio of dividends to the appropriate discount rate. Usually, the first effect dominates at the beginning of an economic slowdown – when the likelihood of a slowdown is high but the likelihood of a true hard landing or recession is still low and unclear: then the interest rate channel dominates the profits channel. But once the signal of a hard landing or recession become clearer and the likelihood of such hard landing much higher the profits channel dominates the interest rate channel. http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/
  2. Apologies if already posted, but it looks as if up in Scotland, Wendy Alexander - Dougie's sister - is also done for. Iain Dale puts it concisely (http://iaindale.blogspot.com/), and the whole affair in detail is at Guido's site. "Guido has got the proof that Scottish Labour leader Wendy Alexander was not telling the truth when she said she knew nothing of Paul Green's donation to her leadership campaign. He's got a copy of her thank you letter. I think it is fair to say that Wendy Alexander is even more trouble than Harriet Harman now." Dominoes, my dears. And monkey brains (see previous posts).
  3. There are some things you don't have to be a genius to know are absolutely predictable. For example, that that donkey Steve Mclaren, with his baffling, facile, tautological press conferences (along the lines of "You win some, you lose some, we lost some") was going to fail and fail quickly. Another of these was that Brown would make an utterly disastrous PM, even through his brief salad days of floods and incompetent terrorists. Much as I loathe Tony Blair (and have done since well before he was PM), you have to acknowledge his political charisma. Brown is more like the Wizard of Oz revealed. Cable spot on. Doesn't matter that others had said it earlier, it was when and where he said it that counted. Branded on the forehead of history. Has the New Labour chimpanzee now pulled the trigger? Monkey* brains all over the wall? * Yes, yes, I know chimps are primates.
  4. There does indeed seem to be a kind of supernatural confluence in timing regarding the melt-down of New Labour and the melt-down of the economy. Incidentally, am I the only person who is continually p1ssed off by the manner in which TV journos always assume that a rising house market is an unalloyed "good thing" and any threat to it is bad? Houses are the one thing everybody needs and should therefore be as cheap as possible and out of the economic equation wherever possible. There is no advantage, even to home-owners, in the long-term, of continually rising house prices. It is a Ponzi phenomenon that will ultimately only enrich lenders (and post-ultimately will even bankrupt them). Grrr. Ahoy-hoy
  5. Exactly. We want full-scale car-crash disaster for NuLabour over the next 18 months with no easy way out via election so that Tories carry the can for the imminent crash. Labour is its own worst enemy here, since Labour MPs won't want to vote no confidence in Brown as they will lose their sinecures even sooner. That means they'll be shackled to power as the melt-down gathers heat. I think the Tories are going to sit back and goad Labour now (at least I hope they will). They should go for prison sentences for serving Labour MPs and full-scale nervous breakdown, men in white coats and strait-jacket stuff for Brown. Then Labour the stuff of political history. Lib Dems take over the centre-left statist role and Tories blossom as the anti-red tape, small gov, low tax party. We can only hope so (and six months ago I thought the Tories were dead! So nice to be wrong - and I wouldn't even really call myself a Tory, just a classical liberal free-marketeer).
  6. I've got the popcorn and the six pack lined up next to the Lay-Z-Boy for noon. I want Cameron to begin by cracking his knuckles and saying. "Well, where shall I start?"
  7. Yeah, I can't believe that you would let your husband's rich employer deposit 25K in your bank account, and then write him an unassigned cheque (and an undenominated one?) nine days later for his own use without some kind of a kick-back being involved. Crikey, the couple were adamant they couldn't remember on the six-o'clock news, and then rang round later saying they'd suddenly "remembered". What the bloody hell is going on? First of all, why the subterfuge? The planning permissions thing is looming ever larger (interesting policy on the BBC that there is no mention at all of this on the News At Ten, but if we hang around for the hard core stuff on Newsnight it begins to give us little glimpses of flesh). I think the Labour North East is absolutely rotten and we are at the start of something long and very revealing, like the Dance of the Seven Veils. And it may well end up at Northern Rock! Ahoy Hoy
  8. Magnificent. Events unfolding almost by the minute, never mind the hour. And New Labour worms turning against Brown: the aura of whatever-it-was has evaporated and he is naked and shivering.
  9. Right. See also this from Stephen Pollard at the Speccie website. "From 1992-95 I worked for the Fabian Society. Our meetings were attended by a variety of people: students and academics, hacks and Labour Party members, politicos and wannabe politicos. The presence of someone such as Gordon Brown at one of these meetings was not in the least bit unusual, nor that of any other senior party figure. As an affiliated part of the Labour Party, our job in opposition was to provoke thought about the party's policies. One of the regular - indeed, one of the most assiduous - attendees at those meetings was David Abrahams. He would mix, as would everyone in that milieu, with backbenchers, front benchers, NEC members and Shadow Cabinet members. Many of those people are now ministers. Others are Cabinet members, some very senior. It is possible - just - that when they say they have no idea who David Abrahams is, or cannot recall ever meeting him, they are telling the truth. It is, after all, possible that there are people in the country who have never heard of, say, Gordon Brown. Possible, yes; but very, very unlikely. Indeed, far from keeping himself to himself, as is being written, Abrahams was about the pushiest person I ever came across in my time at the Fabians - and in politics, that is saying something. He would ring up the office asking about meetings and contact; at those meetings, he would make a bee-line for the most senior politicians in the room. He was, in short, keen to be noticed. There are some people who just give off a bad vibe. I recall a number of times when Abrahams offered us a donation. You get a nose for these sort of things (unless, it seems, you are Labour General Secretary or running for office within the party), and we decided at the time to steer well clear. As a member, he was entitled to attend various meetings, but we had no obligation to accept money or offers of work from anyone. Everything about the current story smells. Abrahams' explanation of his behaviour makes little sense. Can he really have gone from being one of the pushiest and most self-aggrandising people I came across to being so afraid of publicity that he chanelled donations through other people? I don't think we have got remotely to the bottom of the Abrahams side of this story. As for the politicians, I simply do not believe those ministers and Labour officials who have been round the block for all these years who say they do not know Abrahams. It is inconceivable that they have forgotten him: he has a manner one simply does not forget. If his status as a donor was anonymous and no one knew who he was, how come he was in the front row of Tony Blair's farewell speech? Make up your own minds whether you call that deceit or forgetfulness. I've made up mine. They know who he is all right; they must do if they have been at party functions. They just don't want to admit it." http://www.spectator.co.uk/stephenpollard/...our-party.thtml They all knew this Abraham guy (hence Straw's "Dave" slip) PS Thanx for link, Only Me
  10. Yes, read it. Very good book. Makes you like and also feel a bit sorry for Dennis (and it's unusual to feel sorry for an almost billionaire). He says anybody can be rich - though it's not one of those crapulous "How To Get Rich" books (despite title!) - more a "Why You'll Never Be Rich" book. He says you have to start young. Over 35? Married with a family? Love your fellow man? Forget it, then. You have to be psychotically single minded and savagely selfish, all of which Felix admits he was. Good stories; funny, too. He says throughout money is not worth it and other things are infinitely more valuable. Made me realise I'll never be rich, and in a good way made me not feel sorry about it. He's esp. good on negotiations.
  11. That was very good (won't repost the whole thing and get told off for prolixity). If that's the tragic, Shakespearian side of Broon, here's the Monty Python comedy (just found this): Brave Sir Gordon ran away. Bravely ran away away. When danger reared it's ugly head, He bravely turned his tail and fled. Yes, brave Sir Gordon turned about And gallantly he chickened out. I'd love to use that as my signature for this week, but I'm clueless how to do it. Can somebody help? (I already have "allow signature" checked, by the way. Pretty good with computers, me.)
  12. I think we might find very soon that the development in question will be "reviewed".
  13. I'm just worried that Brown might actually go. That's just what we don't want. He needs to be there for at least another year while the real bad news starts coming in. If Cameron was to come out and say, cheekily, "Oh, I don't know, we're quite happy to wait until the next general election", that would make me happy. Another year of Brown publicly squirming and privately raging while his government falls apart along with the economy would consign this shower of c*nts to the wastebasket of history for good. We don't want the Tories to get in just as house prices collapse and we go back to 3 or 4 million unemployed with double-digit inflation. A year is all we need, 18 months would be better.
  14. Broon's being crucified and then spit-roasted at the press conference. He is now onto "I have no recollection" territory (I suspect video footage will give that the lie). Jon Snow (C4) just put it in a nutshell. Feels like Christmas!
  15. Excellent! (did I sound like Mr Burns, there?). It was interesting that Crick on Newsnight tonight, and the Tories so far, have said nothing about the planning permissions (plural!) and so forth. They are keeping their powder dry and getting all their ducks in a row. When this breaks properly it will be like Monty's opening bombardment at El Alamein. Sit back and watch the fireworks.
  16. Ho ho. This from the comments on the Harman thread on Guido's site (NB David Abraham also goes by the name of David Martin - and come on, why not?): "This is more timely planning application than the Durham one. 12 TERRACED HOUSES AND 9 FLATS Notice 13 Adeline Gardens as the agent address and we have our friends, this time called "Acorn Residential (Durham)". Also, notice it was received on the 02/05/06 with the final decision taken on 21/07/06 Ruddick donated £50,000 on 24/05/06 ACORN RESIDENTIAL ESTATES (DURHAM) LIMITED 43A FRONT STREET CLEADON VILLAGE SUNDERLAND TYNE & WEAR SR6 7PG It appears that they have changed address. Also, this address is linked to "Robert Miller & Co", accountants. Alas no donations here. In other sleuthing, it appears that Acorn Residential Estates were operative in a series of consultations with ... Sedgefield ... with Mr. D Martin ... Oh, hello there Tony." A big stone has just been overturned. Also check out this (I'm only passing on the excellent work of others, here): http://www.hse.gov.uk/notices/notices/Noti...mp;SV=190003522 Abraham stood for Parliament for the Labour party, was a Labour councillor - known to them for decades. And they don't know him. Yeah, right. Donates money, planning permissions reversed. Hello Gordon! Is McCavity there?
  17. Here we are folks: the Daily Telegraph has just picked up on all the stuff that's been discussed on here tonight: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml.../nlabour127.xml "It has emerged that: • David Abrahams, the millionaire property developer at the centre of the furore, won planning permission for a controversial development after the Highways Agency, under the department run by the then Transport Secretary Douglas Alexander, one of the Prime Minister's closest allies, removed its objections to the scheme. The decision was made after Mr Abrahams bankrolled the party via two of his employees. • Harriet Harman, Labour's deputy leader, received financial backing for her campaign from Mr Abrahams, which was registered as coming from one of his employees. One of her opponents, Hilary Benn, was also funded by Mr Abrahams, although this was declared. • Mr Abrahams disclosed that he had also donated a further £167,000 to Labour via a solicitor, John McCarthy, taking his total donations to the party to at least £558,000. • Peter Watt, Labour's general secretary, admitted he was aware of the "arrangements" used by Mr Abrahams whereby he gave money to business associates and a solicitor who in turn passed them on to the Labour Party. He has resigned." Cat officially out of bag (hurrah!). Now *rubs hands* how long for Gordon?
  18. Friend Goldfinger: "Build it and they will come" (10% down in Dorset on another thread BTW.)
  19. What Ee-Or Straw actually said was, "I don't recall meeting Dave." Yup, "Dave". Big Oops, Jackie boy.
  20. It gets better: "Harriet Harman got £5,000 from Janet Kidd, a director of David Abraham's Durham Green Developments Limited, for her deputy leadership bid. Presumably she knew who it really came from - or are we expected to believe she had no idea who was backing her" Ooh-er!
  21. Possession is nine-tenths of the law, or so they say. So who exactly physically holds the mortgage deed of a property when a bundle of mortgages is sold on, and then sold on again, apparently ad infinitum? Are they lodged in the originating lender's vault, or passed on to an intermediary when the CDO is marketed, or what? I had a brief fantasy that a mortgagee could write to an institution asking to inspect the documents, perhaps claiming to be a CDO buyer, thus securing their own deeds in the CDO- squared and -cubed confusion. Then when the bailiffs turn up, said mortgagee waves papers and says "Clear off me damned property, you oik!"
  22. They must know - the lazy sods all rely on Guido. Somehow I don't think Abrahams will be suing anybody. Incidentally, I just read that the "donations" to Labour stretch as far back as 2003 (again, must have been hidden through intermediaries, or Abraham's "I only want privacy" line will be ridiculed), so the "we only gave money after the planning permission" defence won't hold. ALSO ... you'll love this ... the sum has now increased to 600K and the extra dosh apparently came through Abraham's lawyer! (That's him struck off, then.) I would expect, and do dearly hope, that the press will foam up the media river like a school of ravenous piranhas, and I think they just might. They surely can't resist these tender morsels. Ahoy hoy!
  23. In case people haven't yet followed the link above to Guido's website (http://www.order-order.com/ - top story) here is the money shot: "Durham Green Developments Limited had a planning application for a business park development alongside the A1 motorway blocked by the Department of Transport. Raymond Ruddick and Janet Kidd are directors of the company.... See his and her donations listed on the Electoral Commission website. They donated some £400,000 to the Labour party, secretly on behalf of David Abrahams, the owner of Durham Green Developments Limited. In October last year the objection to the massive development was dropped by the Department of Transport." My goodness me, something like this could almost bring down a government (of course, the HMRC thing and Northern Rock, not to mention the upcoming economic holocaust, will help). So now we know why the donations were made by a couple of cut-outs. Stupidly, they are actually directors of the company (!). Here's £400k, see what you can do about that planning decision, Dougie (and Gordo). "There you go" says Dougie, "but keep it quiet - more than Peter Watt's job is worth. He's a qualified patsy - I mean nurse! - you know." This appears to be the most blatant (I mean incompetently hidden) example of bribery I have seen in many moons. Let's see how the Bolshevik Broadcasting Company play it. They'll probably argue that the money was donated after the permission was given. Of course! That way nobody would ever suspect anything. Fools. edit: sprellirng
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