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House Price Crash Forum

Captain Coma

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Everything posted by Captain Coma

  1. They must have meant "House prices set to fall by 7% in next two months".
  2. This thread deserves a bump: lots of angry (small therefore vital) businessmen on here worth listening to if you want to know where the economy is headed.
  3. Pasquino, paysano, that is profound bellweather sentiment. Sorry for your business, but bread and onions and peace of mind - oh, for the simple life! - is much under-rated (Al contadino non far sapere quanto è buono il cacio con le pere!). Enjoy and good luck.
  4. Yep, looks like that's torn it: http://www.cnbc.com/id/22916460
  5. Great piece on bond insurance and the monoline scam from Elaine Meinel Supkis today over at Money Matters. It's long, and this ain't all of it. But it's good: http://elainemeinelsupkis.typepad.com/mone...e-meine-13.html Edit: spelling
  6. £375,000!!! That is simply beyond belief. £150K would be pushing it in good times (AFAIC). I'm sorry, I just can't believe it - that is from another universe. Never again will we see such a spectacle. Future generations will look back on this and shake their heads at the lemming-like rush into debt slavery. £375,000! Hahahahahah.
  7. I overheard on t'telly that the rogue trader/lone assassin had only lost half of the £3.9 billion and that the other half was lost by SG hurriedly closing "his" positions in a falling market (they were helping the market to drop!). If that's true then they were very silly billies as the market rallied the next day and they could have closed out then in profit, no? I don't believe a word of it. The market was down last Mon because of the monolines (as it probably will be next Monday, too). More power to Jim Sinclair's elbow.
  8. OK. They're off their rhythm then. Must be feeling spooked by something!
  9. Late rally? Am I looking at the correct graph? The DJIA at 8:58PM: 12,207.17 - down 171.44 (1.38%), quite hard at the end. Too true, Confounded: doesn't look good for Monday.
  10. Oh yes, they were. I'm not saying the police can't be violent when required. I'm saying that there aren't enough of them.
  11. Be interesting to see. The army is overdeployed and anyway unenthusiastic about helping out this government. Those troops available might stand there, but I can't see much enthusiasm for breaking heads. Ditto the police, who aren't really European-type paramilitaries, and who wouldn't be able to cope with anything more than localised outbreaks of civil unrest. Oh yeah, and they're not too keen on Clown Brown's gang either.
  12. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that you can only "walk away" from the mortgage in the USA if the original loan is intact - if, in other words, you haven't MEW-ed, taken out a second home loan, etc. If the borrower has altered the terms of financing, he is then liable for the total amount. I think I read that on a thread here, months ago, but can't be certain. Anybody enlighten me?
  13. OK, it gets better ... http://www.cnbc.com/id/22823057/site/14081...C&par=yahoo Apparently the "$15 billion" bailout is already edging down to $5 billion. Super SIV mk II? Which sort of puts us back where we were. Let's see how the market takes it.
  14. I am inclined to agree with Uncle Monty. Of course neither the banks, nor the Fed, nor the US gov can afford to bail out the monolines - for very long. They might be able to hold back the floodwaters a little while - a matter of a few weeks or months, depending on the speed of developments - but as defaults increase, the need for new injections of capital will grow at an even faster rate. As usual, such actions only serve to shore up worse problems in the future. I think the DOW could well stay up until close tomorrow, but I would not be surprised if Monday looks bad (even worse) again after the market has time to sober up over the weekend. We shall see. Incidentally, does anybody know if anything dramatic or unusual has happened over the last 24 hours to the yields on 3- and 6-month US Treasury Bills? Rumours were that the smart money had already left the market and gone into cash, so a drop in the yields might give some evidence for this, and an indication of how imminent a large (share) market drop might be.
  15. At a rough guess, none. For your entertainment and edification, here is a sample of the chatter on Market Ticker forum from some folks who are nearer to what's going on. I've edited it together a bit so that you can get a more fluid sense of where the conversation is going. Great stuff, and it sounds as if they are saying the same things we are here on this thread - but in American, which always sounds good to my ear: "Insurance cos don't go into bankruptcy they go into receivership. In that case regulators step in and take charge of unwinding. So, is this just a pre-emptive bankruptcy under a different name? I don't know but sounds like it. Mono bonds rallying hard up 10 points. Monoline common stocks rallying too but they will get screwed in the end most likely through dilution. Or holding company tied to common goes bankrupt." "So when we get a few trillion of CDO exposure, is the State of New York going to foot the bill?" "The reason NY and Wis insurance commissioners are involved is that they are the lead regulators for MBIA and Ambac respectively. There's no Federal regulation of these companies, and each state has their own agencies. It's based on where the company was headquartered when it was started. Ambac originally was a part of MGIC in Wisconsin before it was sold off to Citi back in the 80's. Any bailout or capital infusion needs to be approved by the lead insurance commissioner. That doesn't mean any state taxpayer money would be involved in the recapitalization." "You know who else is scared right now? Wisc and NY regulators. If the markets rally hard on the idea that they will somehow backstop the monolines, who gets to take the PR hit when we find out - oops - that they can't ACTUALLY do that, since they don't have the cash. Oh, and by the way, the swaps the monolines insured are still defaulting with no coverage. All I'm hearing so far is jawboning. The sheeple are buying on hope and reading between the lines to find things that haven't actually been stated. I'll believe this when I see it." "OK, so the infusions need to be approved.. but where did the money that they're infusing come from?Perhaps this is the increase of liquidity that Bernanke talks about but hasn't actually done.. yet.." "Well, at least now we can be almost certain that the "potential" big selloff and panic was predicated primarily on the monoline issue (the monster monoline thread here at this forum was no fluke). These folks better deliver on this rescue plan or as Karl says, the Gates of Hell will be opened wide." "Banks don't have the capital, insurer's don't have the capital, BUT the banks are trying to RAISE the capital for the insurer's so that the banks themselves can last a little longer. Can u say "Domino" Effect?" "If anyone buying equities right now stopped long enough to THINK about this - they might figure out that this is HUMUNGOUSLY BAD!" "Ha, ha, ha, ha. The open tomorrow should be interesting as the retail investor realize they've given the money makers another chance to get out. Good grief." "Seriously, when you get the .gov involved, it's not just as simple as saying, 'Yep, let's do this.' This is not private equity peeps. There's a tough row to hoe to get this to actually do anything, let alone save the day. God help anyone long if this 600-point swing ends up being built on speculation. How far down do you think it comes if this plan doesn't happen?" "WTF, is the rest of the world gov going to bail out their markets. I call ******** on this!!" "Pump and dump is right..." "I'll repeat myself. I don't think that the CB's give a shit about the stock market... all they care about is the solvency of the major banks..especially but not exclusively GS. every move is geared to this." "You know how you can tell that it is getting bad? They can't even make things up anymore that are halfway believable. This shit sounds like a three year old made it up." (The full thing on http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs...496&page=1) Some of the posters elsewhere are also hinting that the really big, mysterious, "smart" money has already left town, so when the DOW inevitably tanks in tears and snotters, it will be ordinary investors, pension funds etc., on the hook for all this. The biggest sucker's rally ever?
  16. If the DOW ended up almost 300 points today because of this news - which I think is the reason - then I will bet it won't stay there for long. There is not enough money in America to bail out the monolines if the defaults accellerate, which they will, and asking the gov or the FED to step in to cover the debts (claimed against defaulting commercial bonds written by the banks themselves) amounts to an NR-style bailout for the entire US banking system. The fact that Wall Street was so overjoyed and relieved simply to hear that a meeting was taking place merely points to the dawning realisation of this desperate and perhaps incurable situation. Once they do their sums and realise that shareholders are going to be crucified to the last cent (apparently Soros has basically said "save the banks and hang the shareholders" - see CGNAO's thread), I think the markets will puke and it'll go the other way. These ups and downs are getting wilder and wilder and faster and faster by the day now. If the DOW was a person you'd be looking at somebody crying and laughing and talking gibberish - meaning an imminent psychotic break and the strait-jacket for the patient's own protection. Poor kitty: they just strapped the dead cat to a rocket and lit the blue touch paper.
  17. As far as I understand it, that would be finger-in-the-dyke stuff. If a single monoline is facing $10 billion plus losses already (see article posted above), and if that is just the beginning (first loss always the smallest, etc.), its new capital will be depleted faster than it can be replaced. And would the banks contunie to dummy up money as they see the rate of bond defaults accellerate? Seeing as they're hoarding money to save themselves, you know? Of course this is predicated on the assumption that more insured bonds will default. That's certainly my assumption. Anybody know of any monolines in the UK, incidentally?
  18. REPO13 - great article. Lays it all out in irrefutable detail. Cheers. Frozen Out: yes, it does all sound a little deflationary, doesn't it? Go read the posts by "Nothing" on the Market Ticker thread. She's good. It sounds as if ALL credit will be sucked out by the vapourising of the monolines. Tin-foil hattish? I don't know, but it's the miror image of CGNAO's take; the other side of the coin. Worse or better? Again, I don't know. The rich want inflation as they can always buy assets, whereas deflation hurts them by eroding the value of assets (better for the poor who own nothing, but only relatively so). My guess is that the system will try to inflate but the monoline cataclysm will overtake it. Note to Goldfinger: I would still want gold! Edit: DEflationary! Doh!!!
  19. You bet. You should read the "Bin Laden Put" thread from last autumn, when they were talking about a massive short made on the Dow that it would drop 60% in three months' time: worthy of a thriller novel! (I think it turned out to be a hedge fund illegally using the market to lend it money somehow - I'm still trying to figure that one out )
  20. Somebody over at Market Ticker said that Bernanke (expert on the Great Depression) wasn't hired to prevent this crash but to deal with its effects. Sound plausible?
  21. http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs...778&page=13
  22. Thanks, Drexler. I am up to page 8 of that thread (of 18) and my eyes have stopped blinking. This stuff makes CGNAO look like a drunken optimist! I believe it and that's why I wanted a thread on monolines. You know, if you want to understand why your mortgage rate just went up to 22% all of a sudden. Apparently the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Commission) is hiring like mad to deal with the approximately 300 US banks they estimate will go bust this year once the monolines go t*ts up (and no, the FED can't backstop them because it would take more $ than the entire US GDP to do so). As somebody on the thread said, "Serfdom here we come." And it's coming in the next few months. Bernanke just sacrificed his first pawn today, and he's up against the ghost of Bobby Fischer!
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