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Captain Coma

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Posts posted by Captain Coma

  1. Weak pound not helping UK exporters very much because:

    1) export markets collapsing;

    2) they have to import parts and raw materials before re-exporting in many cases anyway;

    3) banks cancelling overdrafts/withdrawing credit lines such that many are teetering on the brink anyhow.

    Meanwhile think how much more expensive all that food in the supermarkets is suddenly going to be (by about next week).

    Biflation: buy a house or two bottles of good French wine.

  2. Over at Fintag (the blog of a hedge fund manager), the word is:

    "My analysts reckon that UK house prices, under the current conditions of it being harder to obtain a mortgage plus higher depostits required, that they will fall to 1991 levels.

    Imagine that? Being able to buy a 5 bedroom house in Kensington & Chelsea for less a million pounds?"

    http://www.fintag.com/

  3. As Gordon's borrowing black hole is sucked at an ever-accellerating speed towards its catastrophic event horizon, am I alone in thinking that a disastrous run on sterling is not probable but inevitable?

    Each day, as more and poorer economic data floods in, the future borrowing level increases - soon at a geometrical rate. The Treasury projections are so overly optimistic, and ever more speedily out of date, that markets and investors must by now surely have turned away from them to seek more truthful and accurate numbers elsewhere.

    There is no way sufficient buyers will be found for the amount of Gilts that Brown will soon have to issue - at any price - and a default on debt and downgrading of sovereign borrower staus must also inevitably ensue. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard yesterday placed the likelihood that the UK will effectively be declared bankrupt - Icelandized - at 10%, but personally I would put it a lot higher. The maths doesn't lie.

    And surely, also, a cut of the MLR to 2% would trigger all this much more immediately, wouldn't it? When money is plentiful, it is cheap, as we have seen until recently. When money de-leverages, desert-like conditions indicate that its price must go up. Only then will the market begin its long journey back to normality. By trying to rig the market to avoid present pain, Brown and the BoE are only hastening the end, which will be much more damaging than had the market been allowed to set rates - which it will, anyway, in the end, since (penniless) governments don't set interest rates, people with money do.

    Every which way I turn this around in my head, I keep seeing real interest rates at 10%-12% soon, and there will be nothing a bankrupt UK administration will be able to do about it if they want to carry on borrowing.

    Am I a terrorist like that nice Mr Osborne now?

  4. The funny thing is that people of a left wing leaning have been warning about increased police powers and the politicising of the police for decades.

    Reminds me of P. J. O'Rourke's joke about the Republicans always warning that big government won't work, then get elected and prove it.*

    Labour always warned against the police state on the way, then finally get elected and ...

    *P. J. O'Rourke, for those who don't know of him, is a Republican

  5. You lot still not got this?

    Green had knowledge about the IDs of the Brits involved in the Bombay malarky. Knowing he was going to leak, SO15 popped round to explain he'd be compromising an operation. Paps on his step eyeballed the CTC who took him in for form's sake.

    End of.

    Stepping around the left-wing/right-wing thingy that's going on here, that is a very interesting angle and had not occured to me. If you were writing this as a novel it would be a very good idea indeed.

    But Timm, have you heard this information from any source, reliable or otherwise, or is it your opinion/deduction?

    Nothing to stop Green saying now, of course, and the story of the latest lot of Tipton Taliban (or northern equivalent) looks to be coming out anyway. And if Green was compromising an operation, wouldn't that imply the government knew what was about to happen in Mumbai yet did nothing to avert it - which would open an entirely new can of whoopass?

  6. Ladies and gentlemen, we are now in serious trouble. This is the beginning of political arrests; law and order is under grave threat.

    Tomorrow morning at his press conference dealing with this matter, Cameron should say that, as he has heard the justification that nobody is above the "law" and that it applies equally to all, that he himself is speaking before his own arrest by anti-terrorist police officers, because he knew, ordered and approved of all that Green did, and that if Brown wishes it, he will surrender himself to the authorities.

    Let's see how the PM likes his hand being called.

  7. 'You know who'? - Voldemort?!!!! :blink: Sorry probably not appropriate to make a joke but jeez TPTB really have succeeded in creating a boogyman haven't they? Stick with the programme people...

    Of course, you were right! It WAS Voldemort after all and we were wrong in our prejudiced assumptions as a result of being brainwashed by "TPTB".

    Now trot off back to your Harry Potter fantasy land.

  8. Blimey, sounds like the Tet offensive all over again.

    I take A. Steve's point about making assumptions - for example, Hindu extremists have been targetting Western Christians (proselytisers) lately, although in this case I'd be amazed if it wasn't you-know-who.

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