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Everything posted by crown

  1. It is being offered alongside a pay 85% and have a 15% loan. 2 uses of the same % will confuse enough people. Looks like classic Nulabour spin with smoke and mirrors.
  2. Details here some problems ends 19/12/2008 selected plots only and We're taking the risk out of buying a home with our new 3 year value guarantee. We'll protect the price of your new home so if you want to sell within 3 years and the value is lower, we'll refund up to 15% of the difference. So they are that confident in house prices that they will only stump up 15% of the shortfall! A 100% guarantee might show some confidence, but then they don't have the money to fund such shortfalls. They are also advertising some dodgy 85% purchase price with a 15% deferred loan, but that is another story.
  3. I agree with your points, maybe I should do an 'Earley' and start moving the goalposts now. I'm going to stick with my forecast until I am proved wrong and then I will blame global factors and claim that it was all the Tories' fault anyway.
  4. My forecast housing market bottom is not my desired level, that would be lower still but I take your point. I agree with you on the rents as well. weakening rents will also drive the market bottom down and although this was a factor I took into account, I suspect that it will be proved i did not take enough of a bearish view on rents.
  5. I quite admit that there is a whole lot of negative news that can affect asset prices further. A case can be made for house prices falling much, much further and the estate agents are making the case for rising house prices this year (go figure!) I am looking for the point when I can advise my clients to enter the property market and currently I am saying Q4 2009 maybe slipping to Q1 2010. We need distressed sellers and house prices starting to level off. We do not want rising house prices when they start to enter the market as this will give some bargaining power to the sellers.
  6. He could choose from the following dictator clown ventriloquist - moves his mouth when he is not speaking, Ok the opposite of that. an unelected leader of something
  7. I may have to change to a bull then - scary stuff 5 year fixed rates available each month and 2 year fixed for buy to let. I have been tempted to change my forecast in the last 2 months. But that felt a bit too much like Fionnuala Earley for my liking. I made the forecast before the ar$e fell out of the banking sector and if I was to make a new forecast it would be for £120,000 in Q2 2010. That would suit a 'get labour out' general election date. However I have been amazed by how many clients I meet who think that property is looking 'cheap' because it has fallen by 'so much'. I just have the feeling that when or should that be if, the government offer a loan guarantee scheme like the Lib dems and Tories want, that will free up some bank capital to offer a better LTV mortgage deal. Estate agents are canny salesman and a few I have spoken to recently use the line 'we have reduced the price to take into account the estimated falls for the year ahead, so at the end of the year your property will not be worth any less and you will have paid off some of your mortgage. It amazing how many people get taken in by this line.
  8. I have not seen a topic dedicated to when the bottom of the market will occur and at what level, however now that Nationwide have bottled out of any forecasts I thought I would add my forecast to a new topic. Halifax index bottoming at £140,000 in Q4 2009. Note this is the index, there will be plenty of properties falling 50%+. I have been running an index since May 2008 on my blog the latest is here The index is based on affordability of mortgage payments in relation to rent payments and adjusted by confidence factors in the market. Based on my work in the market, the key to affordability before the recent crazy lending was that the monthly mortgage payments on a 25 year repayment mortgage with a 10% deposit were the same as the rent on a similar property. This was always the key indicator I used with clients until around 2001 when Gordon's lending binge started. At this point I gradually moved away from mortgage sales to general mortgage advice. The final point I would make is that the mortgage and rent payments will obviously differ in different parts of the country, but I find this works well here in the south east. I have found this forum lacking the fight club mentality of early 2007, when we had some great pitched battles between bulls and bears. Feel free now to shoot me down.
  9. In the spring they stop adjusting the figures and so the headline figure is more in line with the actual gain/loss
  10. That will be Derek Draper with the government propaganda department rapid rebuttal unit. or maybe Jaquie smith making up some more letters?
  11. been sat on this since october, waiting for the data. forecasting is a mug's game - yes indeed
  12. and the 40% equity requirement for a ton of mortgage products now.
  13. they are not majored on any more - there is so much better gloomy news for them to concentrate on now
  14. and that figure is seasonally adjusted up as well - could be shocking in the spring.
  15. It is incredible that a mortgage lender with a huge agenda can give a forecast for the market to ramp it up and then when things turn sour, they suspend their forecasts.
  16. http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzotaMhLO5M how wrong can you be?
  17. http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Q4_2008.pdf q4 data as well
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