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Everything posted by JB1981

  1. I have a friend who works as an estate agent in Worcester Park. He valued a property recently, and the vendor said it was too low and they wanted another £30k on top. My mate just walked out and refused to market their property at that price It would not surprise me if the property on sale at £720k is over-valued, and maybe the vendor rather than the estate agent has set the price. I know that the market in South West London has gone up by about 25% in the last 2 and a half years, so say you bought your place for £400k, spent £100k decorating to a high spec similar to this other property and then add on 25% = £625,000.00. I would say that is probably what the value should be
  2. Yeah I know what you man - I am planning to put down a 20% deposit. In the first few years, I plan to save for a loft conversion and a back end extention for another room (i.e. a large sun room, subject to planning permission). I am not planning on loans or borrowing to pay for these. I have worked out that this will costs around £70,000.00. Once these have been done, I plan on overpaying the mortgage as much as possible whilst still 'living' (i.e. going on holiday, a few luxuries etc). I have a financial plan to be mortgage free when I am 50 and then saving as much as possible for 5 to 10 years after that, and then retiring when I am 60, and try to live off the interest, private pension plan and state pension (if there is such a thing by then). In terms of negative equity etc. once I am in a house I will not be bothered by house prices. Even if it dropped in value by 50%, I will not care as long as I can afford the Bills and live a decent lifestyle supporting my family. I will be planning to live in this house for 30 years, as it is a place to live and not an 'investment'. Once retired, I would plan to sell it and move out to the Country. Sad as I am, I am planning to move to somewhere like Dorset, Devon or the Lake District.
  3. I remember the last house price crash well, despite only being 26 now. My Mum struggled immensely with the mortgage and being a single parent. That was despite buying the house for £26k in 1980! However my Mum never fretted about house prices, just coping with the Bills, because she had no intention of selling - it was a place to live and bring me up. Hopefully the only people that will be burnt in the event of a crash is investors who treat property as a business. Unfortunately I know it will not work out like this. I personally have been looking at house prices since I was 12 - sad I know, but I remember 3-bed house in Sutton being available for £60k in 1993. They are now on the market for £275k plus! Myself - I am looking at moving from my 2-bed flat that I bought in 2005 to a 3-bed house in the near future, perhaps within 12 to 18 months. I wanna get on with marriage and have kids before I'm too old! I never see property as an investment, just simply a place to live and raise kids and be happy etc. I just want to be able to afford a good size 3-bed semi with a nice garden for around £300k - which I still can, just need to raise the moving costs of £17k - I'm halfway there now! And with the deposit and combined income of me and my long term partner (living together for over 2 years, together 4.5 years overall), our mortgage will be 3.5 times our income, so we won't be overstretching ourselves. Take care, JB1981
  4. Go on the Sutton! Up 2.9% is asking prices in Rightmove's latest report and London's 5th best performer! Housing market crash my a*se! In Sutton, most houses are selling within a reasonable amount of time, at or close to asking price offers, with only a few properties staying on the market for long. The high street is always busy, and no signs or talk of a depression/recession here Also, given that Sutton was the 8th most expensive borough to live in before the house price boom, and is now only the 25th most expensive, house prices here have risen the least in the last 10 years, and therefore have the least to fall in the (apparently and increasingly unlikely) event of a crash here
  5. Go on the Sutton! Up 2.3% in the last three months according to BBC when all else is falling!
  6. I hear what you say FTB1. I must admit I do like Kingston, Richmond and Wimbledon more than Sutton, but prices are simply a joke, and are often double that of the prices in Sutton for similar properties. In the long term, I am planning either to stay in a nice part of Sutton, or move out to say Epsom Downs, Banstead etc. I would never move further into London, prices are too high and it is a bit of a concrete jungle, and too much traffic etc. What I would say about Sutton is that there are not many Council estates anymore, and also, when compared to places like Wimbledon, it has some of the best value properties in London, given the good transport links, good schools, nice green clean areas and parks, good shopping area and lower than national average crime rate. Sutton is also next to some of the best places to live in the UK, such as Coulsdon, Reigate, Epsom, Banstead etc. And as long as you don't go past the Carshalton border into Croydon/Mitcham territory, you should be fine
  7. Hi Isabella, The St Helier Estate is not part of Sutton, it is part of Morden (Merton) and Carshalton, which is completely separate to Sutton. Trust me, I should know, I have lived here all my life! Sutton was actually built in the 18th century when the turnpike road was built between London and Brighton. Then in the 1850s to the 1930s it had substantal building after the railways connected Sutton to Central London. Sutton is in London as it is called 'The London Borough of Sutton' and if you look at any Map, comes under Greater London. Therefore it is part of London, but also comes under Surrey, as it is included in the Surrey address book. I would much rather be part of Surrey than Sutton, more posh and higher house prices than Greater London
  8. Hi Isabella, where do you live/come from as you seem to know Sutton quite well. The estate you refer to is the St. Helier Estate, which stretches from Morden Tube Station to Carshalton, it is not actually part of Sutton. Sutton is a London Borough, but also the address code when you post mail is Sutton, Surrey. Weird eh? It is part of Surrey yet is also part of London. Abit like Bromley, classified as Kent yet is a London Borough. South Sutton is a nice place to live, but there are too many flats and the end of Brighton Road, just before Belmont, is a large estate that is not too pleasant. The rest of Sutton has improved dramatically between 2000 to now. Whilst the high street does have quite a lot of chavs and hoodies, nothing ghappens there as it is fully covered by CCTV. And unlike Croydon, you feel safe on the streets including the backstreets, which are well lit up. There are also loads of nice parks, Sutton has some of the best schools in the country, and is only a stones throw away from places like Wimbledon, Epsom Downs etc. Train links are very good with Victoria reachable in 25 minutes, London Bridge in 35 minutes, and many other places like Horsham, St Albans, Guildford etc. can be reached directly from Sutton. The bus services are also very good, with direct buses to Wimbledon, Epsom, Kingston, Croydon etc. And you can still get a decent sized semi-detached house in a nice street for less than £300k, more than I can say for most of London
  9. Moshmonsta, you are entitled to your (wrong) opinions. I am backed up with statistics to support my case. As for being chav central etc. it is no worse than any other high street. It has also got good shops, nice pubs (if you know where to go) and I always feel safe on the high street, day or night. It does have fast food chains, but also lovely restarants in South Sutton. As for gambling dens, there is 3 along the entire high street! As for Martin Way, that is the edge of the Wimbledon Chase council estate, and also has flats on it that look like prison cells. I should know - I've viewed some of them!
  10. Excuse me moshmonster, Sutton is no way a Shithole. In fact, it has got voted the 4th best borough to live in London. It is 15 minutes from the M25, has trains that run to Victoria or London Bridge in 30 minutes or less, has one of the lowest crime rates of any borough in London, has plenty of green parks, a pedestrianised high street, some of the best schools in London (i.e. Wilsons, Sutton Grammar), one of the best education statistics, and is also next to some of the best places to live in the UK (i.e. Epsom, Banstead). It is also has nice clean streets and a friendly atmosphere. It is also not beset with bad traffic jams like the rest of London. Furthermore, it is a 10 minute train/20 minute bus from Wimbledon, yet houses are half the price! Yes, I live here, have done all my life, and I can honestly say, that I would prefer to live in Sutton than most of London or the UK anyday. Now take Croydon, Tooting, Streatham, Mitcham, Shepherds Bush, Acton, nearly all of East London - now wer'e talking shitholes
  11. Alliance and Leicester down 22% but no mention of this yet. Northern Rock recovering to 34% down!
  12. Since I started this thread, I suppose I better air my own views. I have read, and I am grateful for, the replies to my thread. In terms of the percentage chance of a property price reduction happening, I would assess it at the following: Interest rates = 5.75% to 6% = chance of a property price reduction = 25% Interest rates = 6.25% to 6.75% = chance of a property price reduction = 40% Interest rates = 7% to 8%% = chance of a property price reduction = 75% Interest rates = 8.25%+ = chance of a property price reduction = 95% Interest rates = 10%+ = chance of a property price reduction = 100% In my view, the severity of any price reduction or increase is always dictated by the level of interest rate. If interest rates peak at say 6.25% to 6.75%, I think that property prices will fall, depending on area, between 10-30% in the South East. Given the amount of money swishing about in Central London, I do wander if property prices will decrease at all there. In outer London, I feel that prices will decrease by between 10-20%, with the more 'dodgy' areas dropping by around 30%. I feel all areas like Brighton, Crawley etc. will drop by between 10-30%, again this is depending on location. Insofar as the rest of the country is concerned, I think the evidence is obvious, insofar as average wage -v- house prices. Apart from more prestigious locations, I think property prices could drop, potentially, by around 50%, but a drop of 30% is much more likely. I am neither a bull or a bear, but house prices are always dictated mainly by interest rates, and if they continue to rise, property prices can only go one way - down.
  13. I am neither a bull or a bear. I want to start an honest topic where people describe what chance there is of a house price crash, by how much the market will crash by, what areas will be hit the most and whether they are a bull or a bear and whether they are home-owners, buy-to letters, estate agents or renters. I want to also ask whether their comments are backed up by research or are just their own personal views For people's information, I am a homeowner, as I bought a modern and spacious 2-bed flat in 2005 in Sutton, Surrey. I paid £140k, and the same is now worth £180k. I am 26 years old, work in the City on a good salary, my mortgage is on the 5-year fixed deal at 4.99% and is a repayment mortgage, and takes up approx. 22% of my take home pay. I have no outstanding loans, apart from my mortgage, and live a very comfortable life, with a £300.00 per month pension plan and £10k savings. I look forward to hearing from you.
  14. Hi everyone, I appreciate the comments, replies and advice. I can confirm that my mortgage is fixed at 4.99% until October 2010 and is a repayment mortgage. My £10k savings are all in an instant access cash ISA. I do have a pension plan, which I put in £150.00 per month, and my employers also put in £150.00 per month. Following reading everyones replies, I can confirm I am a higher band tax payer, and therefore I would pay 40% tax on my savings (other than those in an ISA). Therefore if I put my money into a 6% savings account, I will only earn 3.6% after tax. I will therefore continue to put £300.00 per month into my ISA, and put the rest (£900.00) per month into over-paying the mortgage. Wish everyone all the best. JB1981
  15. Appreciate the nice reply. Sutton does have a lot going for it. It has a mainline train station fast train links in 30 minutes to London Bridge and Victoria, and 15 minutes to Clapham Junction, good bus links, plenty of green open spaces, a pedestrianised high street with plenty of good shops, and a lower than national average crime rate. The houses and flats too are of a good quality (except new builds-cant stand that plastic rubbish). The nearest tube, Morden, is only a 10 minute bus ride away. The M25 is a 15 minute drive away, and countryside (such as Epsom Downs) is only a 5 minute drive away. It also has some of the best performing schools in the country, such as Sutton Grammar. In terms of places like Morden, and especially Croydon (which is a proper dump), I agree that places like that will be hard hit by any crash. However, back in 1995, before the boom, Sutton was ranked 8th highest in the london borough rankings for most expensive property. It is now something like 23rd, which indicates that if the market were to crash, Sutton would not be hard hit, but the places that have risen above it will probably be the hardest hit. Such places would include areas that are dumps but fairly Central to London, whjere there is high crime and lots of council housing, yet have inexplicably risen in price significantly (£800k for a 3-bed semi in Wandsworth - who'd have though that!!). It sounds as though you have done alright for yourself, and I hope that continues for you.
  16. I would also ask whether people whom are bulls or bears (or neither) would tell me whether they are home-owners or not when they reply to this post, and if they are, when they bought their properties. This will help me understand their points of view, as I know for a fact there are many disgruntled bears on here simply wishing and longing for a house price crash, whose view will be biased. Also, ignorant steve, if I listened to you and other people on this site, to move into the place I own now, would have cost me £40k extra, which would have been over £200 per more than my present repayments on my current deal! Good job I'm ignorant hey!!! Thanks
  17. Yes they probably would have done. However, back in 1995 - 2000, I would say that properties were grossly under-valued, following the crash. Also, in the long term, you have to take in to account facts such as, my mother bought her house for £20k in 1980, and it is now worth £250k, and my Gran bought her house for £600.00 in 1957, and it is now worth £350k. No crash will ever makes prices go back down to these levels, and I doubt any crash will bring prices back down much below 2005 prices. Even the great property crash of 1990 - 1995, prices were only reduced by around 30%. I am not a bull or a bear, just someone who is taking a sensible view. My job (I work for a Law Firm) will be safe in any recession as it is not affected by such market forces. Therefore, I will always be able to pay the mortgage. In terms of supply and demand, I do not believe there is a lack of supply, there are hundreds of properties for sale in Sutton and nearby areas. I think Estate Agents are the main culpits, however, there are further influences, one obviously being the historically low interest rate, and also the wealth in the City of London which is rippling out to the suburbs, with many workers taking home massive pay packets. There is also the fact that there are normally two breadwinners instead of one at home (something I do not necessarily approve of, as I believe kids should not be put into creches when they are still babies, but nevermind). My present mortgage is only 2.8 times my salary, and £675.00 take out approximately 22% of my take home pay. Even at an interest rate of say 8%, my mortage would be less than 30% of my take home pay. This is because I was sensible, and did not over-stretch myself, like some people whom are reguarly criticised on housepricecrash.co.uk I do not see property as an investment, rather a place to live. If in 50 years time, in a house I paid £300k for in 2010, which by then would be fully paid for, is only worth £10, I would not care at all, as I see it as a place to live, not an investment or a pension, as I also have my own provate pension pot that will pay at least £25k per annum to me when I retire, with no rent to pay out as my home would be owned by me.
  18. Thanks for the above. I know that the interest is re-calculated daily, I can make overpayments of £14k per annum without penalty, and as long as the mortgage is not paid off by October 2010, then there will be no penalties. I also know that I cannot borrow back overpayments. I also do have £10k saved up already for emergencies and unforeseen circumstances, and the flat is not in a 'show home' condition but is in very good condition (built in 1975, double glazing, security entry phone, new kitchen and central heating and electrics (2007), nearly new bathroom and carpets (2005). I have read a lot of posts on this site, and I am not a bear or a bull. I honestly hope house prices do no increase further, as what I can afford in terms of houses (which I hope to be in a position to buy in 2010 without over-stretching myself) decreases all the time, and whilst my flat would increase in value in line with the present HPI, this does not help me afford a house. To explain, say my flat goes up 5% in value over the next 3 years. This makes an increase of £9,000.00 to £189k. If a £300k house also increases by 5%, their value goes up by £15k, to £315k. Ideally, if prices decreased by around 20%, this would take us back to 2005 levels, which is the last time I thought prices were remotely sensible. I simply cannot believe the recent HPI, and I think it is a joke. Most of my friends cannot even buy a 1-bed flat in my area, and have all clubbed together to rent a house instead, which whilst it is fun initially, simply shows up the state of the market for FTB.
  19. I know I can overpay the mortgage by up to £14,000.00 a year, and as long as the mortgage is not completely paid off by October 2010, I will not incur any penalties. Also, the deal I am on re-calculates the interest on the date the overpayment is made.
  20. I am 26 years old, and I bought my 2-bed flat a couple of years ago for £140k in the London Borough of Sutton. I only put down a 5% deposit and I took out a 35-year mortgage. Similar flats in my area now go for £180k+. I did not overstretch myself, and borrowed 3.3 times my salary (at the time). Due to pay rises, my initial mortgage borrowing is only 2.8 times my salary. My mortage is approx £675.00 per month and is fixed until October 2010. When the deal expires, my payments will go up by at least £200.00. At around the same time, I plan to move into a 3-bed house in my area, which, at the moment, go for around £300k, and I plan to put down at least a £75k deposit. I have not made any overpayments on my mortgage yet, mainly because during the last two years, I have been saving non-stop, and now have a new kitchen, new central heating, the electrics done and a new car (all paid in cash ). I have also topped up my personal savings to £10k at the same time . I am now in the fortunate position of having approximately £1,200.00 leftover every month, after my mortgage, all Bills including petrol, food, travelcard, pension etc. have been paid, and also including my going out/entertainment expenses. I am now not sure whether to over-pay my mortgage by £1,200.00 every month, which will reduce my mortgage borrowings to approx £80,000.00 in October 2010 instead of £127k when the deal expires, or whether to carry on putting my left-over money in a high interest savings account. I have worked out that my mortgage payments when the deal expires will be around £900.00 with no overpayments, but around £550.00 with the overpayments. Also, presuming there is no crash, I will have at least £100k equity in my flat, instead of £53,000.00 equity. Overpayments = £80k mortgage £100k equity £10k savings with £550.00 mortgage payments Saving = approx £60k savings with £54k equity in the flat but £900+ mortgage payments If there is a crash, I would obviously prefer to have my money protected in savings accounts, however my mortgage payments, although still easily affordable, will be a lot higher, particuarly if the interest rates rise much further. Help and advice please! I am just not sure what to do! Help!
  21. At the moment, in my area (Sutton), me and my fiance took out a £134k 5-year fixed repayment mortgage (at 4.99%) in October 2005 on a 2-bed flat, bought for £141k. My payments will not rise for another 3 years 4 months, which is enough time for me to pay off a sizeable chunk of my £130k mortgage remaining, so when it comes to remortgaging, even a sizeable rate rise will probably mean I just pay the same amount each month as before. Also, I have added value (i.e. added in Central Heating, New Kitchen and Bathroom, total cost £8k), and my flat is now worth £185k, £44k more than I paid for it. It would therefore take a reduction of at least 30% before we are put into negative equity. By the way, we were extremely sensible when we purchased our flat. At the moment, after Bills are paid etc. are paid, we have a spare £2,000.00 left to spend how we see fit. Instead , we spend about £500.00, and save the rest towards when we move to get a house. I would actually prefer a crash of around 30%. This way, in October 2010, using our considerable savings, we would be able to buy a nice house that presently costs around £300k for around £210k, meaning a much smaller mortgage, one which we can repay much more quickly when the rates are lowered again in due course. I am one housebuyer actually wanting a crash so I can make my next move up the ladder much more cheaply!
  22. The rightmove survey is in my view completely inaccurate and fuelled by estate agents who think the only way is up. The truth is that house proces are beginning to stagnate, apart from in places like Central London. I am a homebuyer, indeed, I bought a 2-bed flat in Sutton Surrey in October 2005 for £141,000.00. Estate agents are now marketing identical flats for £185k+ less than 2 years later. That is an increase of over 30% and is insane. I do not hope for a crash, but a reduction back to 2005 prices would seem sensible, as properties were a lot more affordable back then. I would barely to able to buy the flat I have now if I was trying to buy it today. The correct surveys to look for are the sold prices. As evidence by the property snake website, many asking proces arer being reduced before they are sold, however the rightmove survey does not seem to take this into account.
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