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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by JB1981

  1. I might further add that I know a couple of people in the estate agents game, based in Sutton and Worcester Park. I believe what they say as they have no reason to lie to me. According to them the market is no longer increasing and indeed 'topped out' last Summer. Since then they are reporting that realistic asking prices are being agreed by buyers, but some are still on the market due to unrealistic sellers. Indeed, one of them valued a flat, the vendor wanted £30k more, and my mate simply walked out, not wanting their business!
  2. I think you are more realistic than most people on here. People waiting for a crash of over 35% will be people waiting until they are worms meat in the ground or ashes blowing in the wind (in my opinion). If you spend your life waiting for something you will be old before you know it and your life would have passed you by.
  3. It is not mine to sell There will always be demand for mortgages as people still want to buy, even in a falling market, as you have to live somewhere. I'm sure in the last crashes people were still buying. To be frank, even if you buy at the top of the market, does it really matter, as if you are planning to stay there for 30 years, do it up how you like it, raise a family there etc. the price will always rise to what you paid for it and more in the long term. To people like me, I don't give a damn about prices, I wanna nice house that has potential to be expanded (loft conversion, back extension) in the future and to raise a family. As long as I can afford the Bills! The only issue regarding house prices matters to people who can't get on the market and investors. I am neither
  4. I did like this comment. I have to say that the Greenwich 'developers' are suffering the same fate. They could have easily sold at the top of the market at £575k or thereabouts, but tried to chase the pound and get a lot more. Looking at it now, they will probably make a loss instead of the £100k+ profit that they could have made when taking into account Bill and mortgage payments etc. It shoulds that when you commit one of the seven sins, i.e. greed, it can come back to haunt you in the end.
  5. Just because you lived through a few economic ups and downs, does this make you a financial whizz. I think not. 40% - maybe in some areas, not Sutton. I have checked, and around 30% off the peak was the norm. Why are we in a much darker place now? Please explain why the economy is in a much darker place compared to all the other downturns you have lived through. The last crash was a combination of events commencing in 1987 and ending with the infamous black Wednesday event in 1992. Interest rates also rocketed. I cannot see interest rates rocketing in this economy any time soon. Indeed, they are predicted to eventually fall to 4%. If it did rocket upwards, then maybe prices would fall by 30-40%. However, I think 20% off the peak, and 35% taking into account inflation, is a much more likely scenario. Even then, this is not guaranteed, and prices may only fall 10% off the peak in certain places. Other places, like the North, may suffer far greater price falls. It must also be taken into account that wages and inflation have risen considerably since a house like the ones I have shown were £100k. Taking this into account, I think your predictions are way off target
  6. It is not an ex-council house! Its a 1930s semi detached and has always been privately owned. I know my area thank you! £250k is a little high I agree. I would say £230k in current market and £200k at the bottom. No £100k is not realistic. It may have been realistic in 1995. Wages and inflation have increased since then. In terms of shrinking credit, I cannot see the banks giving less than the old 3xcouple and 3.5xsingle multiples of salary. Given Sutton's location to the City, and the fact that it has good schools, lots of green space and good transport links, I cannot see Sutton falling like some areas, say East London. I think £100k is someone living in the past, a severe doom-monger, a bitter person who cannot afford a house or just plain loony. But that's just my opinion. I think between 20% to 35% reductions to the bottom is realistic.
  7. Er, no they were not, they suffered no more than any other area, and as the property prices in these areas did not increase by as much as some of the other areas that did really suffer in the last HPC, and given the lack of new-builds that really suffered in the last crash, I cannot see Sutton or most of the surrounding areas suffering as much as say, East London. Sutton was the 8th most expensive area to buy property in London in the late 1990s, and is now something like the 25th most expensive area is London. This shows that, a lot of areas in London have increased much more in price than Sutton, and I see no reason to see why Sutton should suffer as much as dumps like Hackney where prices have increased to far more than what they should be.
  8. No idea, I cannot find any properties from Malvern Road on the sold prices, so I can't help you. Sorry
  9. I hear what you say about £400k 4-bedders near Sutton Station - not really many of them about. I personally am looking at 3-bedders at the moment. Me and the future wife and not planning any more than 2 kids. Worst comes to worst, we would probably look at extending into the loft rather than moving again before we retire to the seaside I'm off for the weekend, will try and reply to any more posts on Monday
  10. Funnily enough, not many new city centre flats in Sutton. There was one major Barratts development. They were trying to sell 2-bed flats for £280k (in 2005), twice as much as what I paid for my 2-bed flat just 6 months earlier! I viewed them for a laugh. Looked nice but fittings were cheap and it is based above a nightclub. Lots of mugs bought them though
  11. I'm not sure about Purley. I've never looked there at the prices as I've never had any intention of living there. My knowledge is limited to Sutton, Carshalton, Coulsdon, Banstead, Cheam, Epsom and Ewell. Ones thing for sure, you could not pay me to live in Croydon!!
  12. £100k - don't make me laugh so loud, the whole office heard me!!! If you want to spend the rest of your life waiting for a house price crash of this magnitiude, you will be very much disappointed. You will grow old and bitter and be worms meat before you know it. You forget, Sutton is inflated by it's good links to Central London (where I work), which means house prices are higher than the local wage. Plus, £30k is for a single person, so when two people are working, plus a decent deposit, the price for these type of family houses is not too far off the mark, especially when the top price for this road (Benhill road) is £285k. I think you must have some major vested interest in wanting the most severe house price crash of all time if you honestly think house prices will drop by around 60%, eiether that or you are a loony tune. I do think house prices will drop, but by no more than 20% off the current price and 30% when inflation is taken into account. To be honest, I don't care, as once I have a house, I will be concentrating on paying the Bills, bringing up a young family and living a full and happy life. One day I will be mortgage free and not wasting money on renting for an eternity waiting for house prices to drop by 60%!
  13. I hear what you say about amount of properties being sold is less, and amount on the market is more. I think this is due to over-ambitious sellers if anything else, as decent priced property is still selling quickly, but the over-priced properties will not be shifting. I think a 15% reduction on the first two properties is over-egging the pudding, as Sutton house prices compared to the rest of London are not too bad. In terms of the locations of the first two properties, they are both fairly close to Sutton Common station, which has direct links to London Bridge (through Sutton Station) and London Waterloo via a stop at Wimbledon (where trains to Waterloo run every three minutes), so not too bad, plus a bus route to Morden tube station within 15 minutes. I will not pay above £250k for a house in Sutton. I have enough savings to buy a house that needs everything doing to it and once bought, getting things done as I go along until I have a great place to live for 30 years.
  14. I remember watching the Chiswick programme. That house looked like it was it a bit of a dump of an area, and was certainly not in Chiswick village. With all that noise from the train and motorway nearby as well as the Chav estate next door. I don't wish bad things to happen to anyone, but I could not stop laughing at the arrogance of the women! Made great entertainment though Someone should get an advert out on that house, in the papers, on the internet and on posters. Something along the lines of 'Beware of this house. It is around £600,000.00 over-priced, do not buy, wait until it comes up for auction'
  15. In a findaproperty.com survey, Sutton got voted the 10th best place to live in England and Wales. Bit of a shock for a London Borough and also for me being a local resident Properties are apparently 25.5% less than the London average Link here http://www.findaproperty.com/displaystory....p;storyid=21792 I always keep abreast of the activities in the local market as I am looking to move. All properties that are set at a realistic price (i.e. beginning of 2007 price) are selling very quickly after coming onto the market. The suurounding areas such as Epsom, Carshalton, Cheam, Ewell, Coulsdon etc. are also still moving well providing the selling price is realistic. I have noted though that some unrealistically priced properties that have not yet come down in price have been on the market for 6 months or more. Pre-July 2007, these may have sold at these prices, but not anymore. For example, the following is realistically priced: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-171...=2&tr_t=buy http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-202...=1&tr_t=buy Against this crap: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-101...=3&tr_t=buy http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-179...=4&tr_t=buy
  16. My present mortgage is 2.3 x my salary and 1.9 x mine and my GF salary. The house will be around 4 x my salary and 3.25 x our combined salary. Before we have kids, we aim to overpay this by around £25,000.00 in 2 to 3 years, so it will be around 3.4 x my salary and 2.8 x our combined salary when we have kids Of course with peak oil etc., we have this 'green' effect, where a lot more energy will be derived from Nuclear (not really green) and wind, wave and solar energy. This will take a long time to come into effect, but as these are renewable sources of energy, will last a lot longer than fossil fuels. In addition to this there are biofuels, hybrid cars etc, and so reliance on gas and oil will be reduced, not much choice really. This world does not like change, and has to have it forced upon it. Only with peak oil, gas etc. will the world finally change to renewable and greener forms of energy as it can only survive by adapting to what the world can provide in way of resources i.e. when one resource is used up, another one has to be found, or the world (or at least the human race) will not survive in it's present state
  17. I have just read the Budget on the BBC website. What a load of crap It seems to be the most pointless budget of all time, with benefits for the engine of the economy (i.e. working class people) being completely ignored, except to tax them even more. We will soon have to start saving up money just to have a pint in the local boozer Vote Labour out NOW
  18. You know, some of my friends take the mick out of me cause I am always planning my life ahead for the next 30 years (I will be 56 by then). But if all goes to plan, (which of course I doubt it will, but if it does), then I will have a nice size if not large house in a reasonable area, be mortgage free, have a large amount of savings (about £250k), have a decent pension pot plus the crappy state pension (if it still exists), and be retired! On top of that, I hope to have opened savings accounts for my kids when they are born, reguarly put in additional amounts, and they will have around £40k each from me when they turn 21. This will give them a decent start in life. All this without a penny in inheritance, just simply working hard and being prudent, whilst still having a life (i.e. going out once a week with mates, again with the missus, seeing family reguarly, going on holiday twice a year, having an average second hand car that runs etc.). I would be down the pub, betting shop, garden etc. whilst all my mates have to flog their guts for another 10 years, yet still living the same lifestyles they are without having to work
  19. Best way to be. You only live once, so it's best try to make the most of this life and to make it a happy one. One way is to not be silly with your money and overstretch yourself with credit cards, loans, mortgages etc. Live within your means. If you are overstretched, and can't go away on holiday or at least be able to socialise and go out reguarly, then what is the point?
  20. Pessimist. You are gonna die miserable with that attitude. I would trust my GF with my life, we love each other that much. Of course we disagree and argue, but that is healthy in a relationship. Anyway, enough rambling, lerts get back to the property issues!
  21. Damn pessimist! Be an optimist - I try and see the best in people, never the worst. I know what you mean though, my Mum and Dad split up when I was just 6 years old . Like I said though, it was a rough long term plan, so I can be mortgage free and retire as soon as possible, and live a hopefully long and happy retirement. I know that a lot of water has to go under the bridge before I even come close to this plan, and a lot of things will (not might) change/alter this plan. If I dont have these dreams, then what is the point of living. Plus my GF seriously does not fancy any of my best mates
  22. I meant any loans in addition to the mortgage! Nice 2-bed flats in my area of Sutton are presently priced around £190k. I would probably undercut this by £5k to try and get as many viewings as possibly early on and to try and sell it quickly. If I can't sell my flat straightaway then I am not too fussed. I would simply reduce the price, but to no less than what I have paid for it including the improvements (i.e. £161,500.00). If not then I would simply take it off the market. I am only 26, and my long term girlfriend is 22, and the flat is nice and spacious so we would just stay there and carry on saving a bigger deposit/overpaying the mortgage until the market picks up again in say 5 to 7 years. Ideally I would not want to do this as I would like to move into a house by the age of 28, get it decorated and furnished, and get married by the age of 30. Thereafter I would like to start producing some children, 2 or 3, and then I will get a vasectomy to stop having any more kids that I cannot afford I am quite sad in that I plan my finances to the last pound, and try to save as much as possible, whilst still having a decent lifestyle. No point in living without trying to have a life .I have drawn up some rough long term plans save £100.00 per month for each of my kids from the date they are born, be mortgage free before the age of 50 and retire when I am 60 with a decent pension pot and a lot of savings, from which I can use the interest to live off! That is of course if everything goes to plan. I am already wise enough in life to know that is likely to never happen
  23. I agree that it is still fairly easy to buy and live a decent standard of life, providing that you are sensible about what you can afford and budgeting. For example, 2.5 years ago, when I was 24, I purchashed a 2-bed flat in Sutton for £140k in a nice cul-de-sac and in a quiet area yet only 2 mins away from the amenities and high street. My mortgage is a repayment mortgage. My Bills, including the mortgage, food, entertainment, travel etc. amount to £1,850.00. Also, since buying my flat, I have furnished the place (£5k), extended the lease (£8k), had a new kitchen fitted (£4k) and had central heating installed (£4.5k). It already had a new bathroom and new carpets before I moved in. In addition to this, I have kept my car running (a 1994 Astra!), gone out at least once every week with mates and family and gone on two holidays every year (one abroad and one in England). All this without having one credit card or loan, and no help from the Bank of Mum and Dad! I am now busy saving for the costs of the next move to a 3-bed semi, which I estimate to be £20k, and I hope to have this by April next year. Allowing for negotiations/price drops in the next year, I have around £60k tied up in the flat which I will use as a deposit. I know there is all this talk about a house price crash, but I think it will be a long term thing rather than a crash (say 5 years), with the maximum drop (excluding inflation) being 20%, taking us back to 2005 prices, and with inflation this drop will effectively be 35%. Anyway, I am buying a home, not an investment. Say in 50 years time, my house is worth £20k, I would not care, as I will be mortgage free, not paying any rent, have my own home and about to pop my cloggs!
  24. I agree with that there are some sellers trying it on and asking silly prices. I have seen nasty 3-bed terraces in Sutton up for sale for £300k plus on main roads, yet there are some nice 3-bed semis down cul-de-sacs, probably in a better state of decoration and bigger gardens, for less than £300k. Not surprisingly, these properties sell much faster than the terraces, some of which have been on the market for at least 6 months! If reasonably priced, you will always get a sale, whatever the market conditions at the time.
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