Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

JB1981

Members
  • Posts

    178
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by JB1981

  1. Even in the nicer areas, the real reason that people are paying this massive premium of living around London is the commuting time and costs. If more and more people being to work from home, surely a lot of them will start to give up this type of house: http://www.findaproperty.com/for-sale/property-12451713 to buy this type of house in a similarly lovely area up north: http://www.findaproperty.com/for-sale/property-12017803 These two houses are not reflective of the average market. Not many people have a spare £1 million plus to buy a house For a £300k budget in Sutton you can buy: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-35200597.html In guildford (needs work admitteldy) http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-28155544.html Up North for £300k (in desirable areas) you can buy: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-38260655.html http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-26029771.html http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-38453627.html http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-23898174.html I think at the £300k level, the difference between reasonable parts of Surrey and nice parts of the North is not that great. There is a lot of cheap property up North in run down bad areas, but the fact is if you want a nice house in a nice part of the North, you still have to pay a premium, and it is not as cheap when compared to Surrey as you think
  2. I think that the point I am trying to make is that people see one of the downsides of living in the South is that it is overcrowded, and this is especially true of the commute to work, and this can put people off from living in the South East. However if this obstacle is overcome i.e. by working from home, then it makes the South a more attractive area to live. People dont just live in the South East because of London or to be close to be able to commute to London. The South East is generally a nice place to live, with much better weather than the North and arguably better services (better and more extensive rail links, better road networks, bigger airports, many areas of oustanding natural beauty (the downs, the jurassic coast etc.), and I honestly believe that taking away the commute and more people working from home wont lessen peoples want/desire to live in the South East and around London, but increase it. Sure you can buy a home up North for a quarter of the price compared to Surrey. However wages are lower up North, and the question is, would you want to? I know people that have moved up North, found it too cold compared to what they were used to, and moved back down South a couple of years later. Also you may find the lifestyle up North may not be up to your expectations.
  3. I can respond as follows; 1. Immigration - I will agree to disagree - there will always be places worse to live than the UK and whilst polish nationals etc may return to thier home countries for whatever their reasons, immigration will still continue from other countries. Indeed I would be interested to see the statistics from the last 60 years regarding the net flow of immigration/emigration from the UK. 2. I agree more houses will have to be built in the South but being built on Greenbelt land - I doubt this will ever be allowed to happen. More likely 'New Towns' like the ones built in the sixties will high speed train links to London will be built, classic examples being Milton Keynes, Crawley, Harlow. 3. This is happening at the moment. However I think that at some point there will simply be a 'water network' built across the country on the same basis as the National Grid, so excess water from the wet North is automatically, cheaply and easily transferred across the country. 4. There is already massive amounts of people working from home, some not going into the office at all, others going in a couple of days a week. This will make it more acttractive to live in the South, not less, will many people not having to face the twice daily rush hour to and from London.
  4. Mine certainly is a 30-year + move - moving house is so stressful! Its got 3-beds and other houses have had full loft conversations to add more bedrooms so there is room to expand and I dont plan on having more than 2 kids. In respect of additional buildings near to my house, I am right at the end of a cul de sac overlooking a cemetery so no danger there! If they build on that in my lifetime then society will have fallen to pieces. Sutton is proud to be known as the greenest London borough cause of all its open spaces so hopefully it will stay like that as well. Go for it. My Aunt lives in Poulton le Fylde, and I always loved going there as a kid, so much open space, nice town centre, plenty of things to do and generally an attractive area to live. I was told though that all jobs advertised are mainly minimum wage only and this was in the boom. At the moment the Government have run out of ideas, just like the Eurozone, and are just plodding along in the hope/praying for the 'miracle' growth to return to cure all ills. No one can predict the future, but most people are more pessimistic than optimistic. Edited - last post went wrong!
  5. At the moment the Government have run out of ideas, just like the Eurozone, and are just plodding along in the hope/praying for the 'miracle' growth to return to cure all ills. No one can predict the future, but most people are more pessimistic than optimistic.
  6. We all know that London and the surrounding Home Counties, and especially Surrey, have always been expensive in comparison to the rest of the Country. Apart from a few pockets up North, the North has always been cheap in comparison to the South, and this is reflected in wages etc. Furthermore London and the home counties are leading the way in house prices and the North South divide is starting to open up to record levels again as it did in the last crash in the 1990s. Also, if Osborne gets his way and introduces regional pay in the public sector (common sense really so private companies are not priced out of these areas by the public sector), then house prices up North will surely fall much further. The North is in bad need of regeneration and is still languishing in the industrial/mining era. Without a lot of investment and a lot of regeneration, the North will simply fall further behind the rest of the country. The South East including Surrey does not need nearly as much regeneration or investment, hence the much higher house prices and being more desirable to live than up North. Sure, some parts of Surrey are horrible, but there are far less areas in Surrey than there are up North which fall in this category. If anything, unless you are very careful about where you buy up North (think the pretty parts like Lake District National Park, Ribble Valley etc.), then it is also arguable that buying up North will be a lost bet (for now). On the other hand, if you are buying a home to live in and not for financial gain, like myself, then picking the right house at the market price in the right area is key. I have moved to a house last year, a forever house if you like, that is perfect to grow into, safe for kids etc. and I am planning to live in for 30 years +. I would love a bet with all the most ardent HPC's that in 30 years time, the house would have increased and not decreased in value. Also, by then, I will be mortgage free and have no rent to pay to anyone. What happens between now and then to house prices I dont care (as long as I can pay my Bills), life is for living. House prices may fall 50% from now, but they will also rise again, like a pheonix lol
  7. I dont know, it might happen, but if Lehmans and all the bank bailouts etc only sent prices down 20% (prices have not fallen since 2009, and have effectively reached their plateau at an average £160k price for the last three years running), then you need to imagine some at least twice as bad happening. Otherwise no, I cannot see house prices falling 30 to 40% in Surrey; maybe they will fall 10 to 20% spread over 5 years, a low motion crash. Almost on cue, the Eurozone breaks up - there, the major crisis to make Lehmans look like a mere 50mph Gale Force Wind in comparison to a 200mph super hurricane. If this does finally happen, then yes, I can easily see prices falling a further 30% to 40% in Surrey!
  8. Like you say, Surbiton suffers from the classic ripple effect from Kingston, i.e. people who cannot afford to live in Kingston immediately look to its cheaper surrounding areas, pushing up the price of that area. Also you cannot expect identical houses, which in one area the house sells for £600k and in another area less than a mile away to sell for £300k. Unless there was something seriously wrong with that area (next to a massive prison for example). I know Tolworth fairly well as I go ten pin bowling at Charrington Bowl - not a place I felt safe at late at night at all, and £300k for a house round there is taking the proverbial. I would say closer to £200k is reasonable in today's market for a house round Tolworth, but I would not anticipate it ever going up in value either without serious regeneration of that area. £550k for a house in Sutton and you should be able to buy a 3-4 bed detached in a nice road with a very large garden. Give me that any day instead of the house in Surbiton included in your link.
  9. You hit the nail on the head. If I have no family ties, I would move somewhere else in a heartbeat. I have seen my style of house which I live in now up North for £150k!! Also in my profession there are vacancies in Manchester, Liverpool etc. which pay about 75% of what I earn in London, so I would be in a win-win situation. The only other thing I would need to consider is the North's dreadful weather and colder temperatures, although after this year it may be now that it is no different down South than it is up North! I dream of living somewhere like the Lake District, Peak District, Yorkshire Dales, even Brecon Beacons. The problem is my family all live in about a 3-mile radius from where I live now, and all my friends live within 10 miles with a few exceptions. So my hands are tied and I am the type of person who cannot break away from that situation. Hell, my job is the the City and I could easily move to a cheaper, bigger place to any of the Counties surrounding London like Kent, Essex, Hertfordshire, Bedfordshire, Berkshire, East Sussex etc. etc. as long as I could commute within an hour and 15 minutes (my personal limit). But with family and friends so close, it is too convenient and indeed it is nice to live and be surrounded by friends and family so close by, it means you get to see a lot more of them.
  10. Decent 3-bed semi's where I live (Sutton) are usually priced around £280k to £350k when they copme on the market 3 bed semi's at £700k+ ? Wow. Do you live further in town (somewhere like Wimbledon?) or out in a posh part of Surrey like Weybridge? Both are extremely popular areas amongst rich people, not your average first time buyers, hence the higher price. These are not 'average' areas so an average first time buyer has no chance in such areas and would have to look at much cheaper areas which are only a few miles away. The fact is that the housing market is subject to massive regional variations. An average first time buyer can never buy in places like Chelsea but can but somewhere 10 miles away or approx 40 minutes travel time in somewhere like Croydon. Therefore saying a first time buyer needs a certain income in a certain area is irrevelant when that area is populated by rich people who can afford those prices and where other rich people want to move there and snap up properties that come onto the market. Such areas do not need 'average' first time buyers to prop up the prices.
  11. I really cannot see house prices crashing in Surrey for the following reasons: The first reason is because I know so many people that want to buy but cannot quite afford it at today's prices. ith my knowledge of incomes and savings from what they have told me, if prices did drop say 10%, then I would estimate around 30% of my friends would be able to afford somewhere and if they dropped 20% another 40% would be in a position to buy, and this alone would put a floor on any further falls. I think tere will always be around 30% of people who will never be able to buy and will have to rely on social housing or they may inherit somewhere in the future. The second reason, touched upon before, is that low interest rates means very few forced/distressed sellers. The third reason is the lack of supply. Very few new houses are being built around Sutton and the surrounding areas. There are also few homes coming onto the market so when a house comes on at a decent price it can be sold within days or weeks. Only unrealistically priced houses sit on the market for many months. There are lots of flats and lots of new flats are still being built as well and I think this is the one area of property which will see a greater crash, but houses will generally hold their value or decrease very little. Without a large building programme being set up some time soon, or a massive cataclysmic encominc event (eurozone collapse), or a massive increase in interest rates (never going to happen whilst the economy remains on life support) the situation will carry on as before, with either stagnation or small drops over many years. Give it another 5 years, considerable debt would have been paid down (on repayment mortgages), many houses will no longer be in negative equity or have much more equity built up in them, inflation and wage increases (even if small) would have eroded the debt, and the bubble will start again, and prices in Surrey will probably have only have fallen another 10% from here. Is it really worth the wait (in Surrey) if you can afford to buy now and get on with your life? I for one think it is not.
  12. Funny thing is, I never went to university so I never had these debts, I started my current job when I was 19 (now 12 years ago), I was earning £16k when I was 19, £20k when I was 20, £25k when I was 21 etc until my current salary of £60k, and it took me until I was 30 before I was able to buy my first house (in Sutton, London, a good size 3-bed semi with potential for a loft conversion, off road parking for 3 cars, large corner plot, south west facing garden, end of a cul-de-sac, overlooking fields, close to good schools and parks and good transport links and close to friends and family - a forever home really, everything we wanted). Don't get me wrong, I enjoyed myself in this time, lots nights out, holidays etc., but I still managed to save £500 per month when I was 19 and more than £1,000.00 per month from when I was 26. However it was not until I was 29 that I was in a position to buy a decent house financially (no help from the Bank of Mum & Dad or any inheritance etc.). Now, imagine if I had gone to uni, got £30k in debt when I left at 21, I would have lost out on 2-3 years of earnings/savings on my current job + it is doubtful I would be earning any more than I am now (in fact I would probably be earning less, there are people at my work who have degrees and have been here 6 years and are still earning half what I am). So without uni, debts etc. it took me until I was 30 to own a house (with a mortgage of course). Now if I had gone to uni, it would probably take me until I was 35 to 40 before I would be in the same position I am now. When I was 16, I planned that I would be married by the age of 25 and kids when I was 27. I have been with my fiancee since I was 22 but we had to put it back as we cannot afford to get married until next year and kids the year after (when I'll be 33 and I always wanted to get married before I had kids). We have also planned to live and pay all the Bills etc. off just my salary and with no help from the state, which we will do, with some more belt tightening. The above is my story and completely true. Also I believe it highlights everything which is wrong in society, as very few people have been as lucky as me in the workplace and associated wages. Also, if I had been born in 1960 and re-told this story again regarding the job (wages adjusted to 1980 rates of course), I would no doubt be saying that I saved for 2 years, bought when I was 22, got married and had kids by age of 25 and paid off the mortgage by the time I was 35. I will still be paying this mortgage off when I am 50.
  13. I dont agree with BTL, a home if for living in, for real families, not a cash cow for the rich to get richer and push house prices out of reach for ordinary families. I would much rather save up a deposit in a high interest kids account with conditions attached that they can only use it for certain meaningful things. Also, what if house prices did actually crash 50% - it would wipe me out and we would be homeless! I do wander if a german model is coming for home ownership, where more and more people simply rent. This is against the British mindset however, as everyone wants their own bit of bricks and mortar. The problem of high house prices is already showing socially as people are putting off parenthood until late 30s and not buying their first home until this time or later. The film 'Children of Men' springs to mind with no children being born for years as no one can afford it! (I know that film was about mass infidelity but the idea is the same. It cant be much longer now before these social issues cause mass riots potentially. I dont think interest rates will go up until meaningful and sustained economic growth occurs or if the UK is ever forced to put them up by an outside party (IMF etc), i.e. many years away. The property market is in a complete state of limbo and with not enough building taking place keeping the demand up for quality family homes so keeping up prices, low interest rates and banks reluctant to repossess meaning few distressed sellers, wages not high enough to afford property for non-home owners not on the ladder and with the banks still recovering from the boom so lending is tight, I really do not know what the straw will be to break the camel's back to send house prices on a massive downward trend in the UK or what will release the pedal of the pent up demand of the under 35s and as a result HPI goes all silly again (if this ever happens). Next 5 years will be very interesting that is for sure.
  14. Exactly. As long as there is a lack of decent quality homes for sale, I think prices will remain static. I dont see any increases in price either. There has to be a severe event similar to the 2008 Lehman Brothers event for prices to now drop dramatically again or for a flood of forced sellers to appear dramatically pushing up the supply side. Otherwise prices will just bump along going down 1% a year until there has been sufficient deleveraging and payment down of debt to enable the economy to grow again and house prices to increase again. I dont see this happening until 2020. However, there are enough potential economic bombs which may or may not happen which may make house prices fall dramatically again. Think resource and oil crisis, unemployment crisis, eurozone crisis (particuarly if it all falls apart), US and China slowdowns, and of course simply the continuation of the ongoing financial crisis since 2008. Plenty of reasons to be gloomy. Not many to be optimistic. Except of course the fact that will each year of low number of property transactions, the pent up demand of would be buyers must be getting ever bigger. Fingers crossed, when I have kids, I am going hopefully going to be able to set up a trust fund and tranfer a monthly amount to them so when they are 18/21, they will already have a ready deposit for a house to use whenever they want to/are able to.
  15. What I would be interested to know is what exactly is the potential 'pent up demand' for every area. I wander what it is like for other posters on this site too. As I said, currently in Sutton, where there is around 10-15 decent 3-bed semi detached houses under £350k in Sutton at the moment. There are admittedly lots of flats and quite a few low quality/less desirable houses for sale but a distinct lack of good quality desirable homes. I am a house owner aged 31 however, out of my circle of approximately 40 friends aged between 25 to 35, there are only around 6 of them who have bought. I know out of them two (including myself) did so without any help from parents and through sheer hard work and sacrifice, two of them could buy due to an inheritance being received (sad state of affairs, both parents died in space of 3 weeks), and two of them got significant assistance from the bank of Mum and Dad. The rest of my friends still live with their parents or rent. The situation is the same at my workplace in the City of London. Out of approximately 30 people on my floor, aged between 22 to 60, and come from all over from East Sussex, London, Essex, Hertfordshire etc., I am the youngest person whom owns a home and therefore approximately 50% of my friends at work live at home or rent, and all of them wish to try and buy somewhere as soon as possible. That is therefore approximately 50 people out of 70 whom I know through friendship or work aged between 22 to 35 who want to buy but cant. This is just my current situation. Surely something has to give sooner or later, this state of affirs cannot carry on forever.
  16. I think it is a mixture of both, although mainly a lack of supply. In rightmove, doing a standard search using 3-bed houses including a garden and off street parking, for up to £350k, shows 70 houses currently on the market. Excluding houses listed by more than one agent, all houses on main/through roads and terraced houses reduces this figure down to about 20. Then exclude houses with tiny gardens reduces this figure again to about 15 - hardly a lot to choose from, and with some of them looking horrible/ugly. I have watched the sutton market closely for the last 10 years and this must be close to a record low for the supply side
  17. What is your budget and what exactly are your specifications for what you are trying to buy? It may be a pain but keep going, eventually the right house at the right price will come up. I am from Sutton and have recently moved to a house in the Cheam area, it took over a year but was well worth the wait as we now have everything we wanted in this house.
  18. Not where I am - Sutton Surrey. A real lack of decent 3-bed semi detached houses that are not on main/thru roads, with decent size gardents and off street parking, coming on the market recently for under £350k
  19. Well I've never claimed a benefit in my life, started working whilst still at school 16 years ago (in the private sector) and have not stopped since, and paid all my taxes and NI etc, as well as saving for my own private pension, so I've never screwed the system. In principle I thought it was a good idea but unworkable as it would mean changing the mindset of too many people at once. It is now too long since the Second World War and the Blitz spirit which would be akin to what is required for the Big Society scheme to work. Shame.
  20. Well in Sutton Surrey what I have noticed that flats are falling in price. My own experience was I sold my flat in December 2011 for exactly what I paid for it in October 2005 (I was lucky). This was after a year on the market and two sales falling through. I had lowered the asking price by 6% in that time and followed the agent's advice at every step. However one flat very similar to mine in the same block sold for 15% at the height of the boom in July 2007. Also, terraced houses in busy roads or in run-down areas of Sutton have also fallen in price or are taking a long time to sell. However decent size houses, especially the traditional 1930s built 3-bed semis with decent size gardens down quiet roads or cul-de-sacs, are more than holding their own and are selling for around the 2007 peak, sometimes higher. This especially goes for both houses which need modernisation. Houses that are fully updated if anything have slightly fallen from the peak levels seen in 2007.
  21. I was just wandering, this has not been mentioned by David Cameron or the press for some time. Therefore has this flagship 'policy' by Dave been abandoned? I still don't actually know what it was all about anyway, along with most of the rest of the country! It seems it was dreamt up to counter the cuts, i.e. replacing a paid librarian with several unpaid volunteers to run the library instead etc
  22. I live in Sutton and that road is opposite a nasty Council estate and a gas works, plus there is a horrible pub at the end of the road, not the best place to live. There are nicer houses in better roads going for less or the same amount of money as this house. I would say that at present market conditions, it is £30k over-priced, and would fare badly in a crash, as the road is not the nicest.
  23. Er yes, I am still laughing at YOU. There was a very recent poll, I cannot remember which but it was a major one, that suggested that Sutton is the 10th best value place to live in the whole of the UK, and will be the best placed London Borough to weather the storm. Indeed, it put prices at 30% undervalued to other places nearby, with places such as Wimbledon, only 10mins away, have prices double that of Suttons. Now THAT is a bubble. House prices remain very affordable in Sutton, especially given that they are a London Borough, have some of the best schools in the country, great transport links, and is a very clean and friendly borough, great for families etc. And with the coming inflation storm, I cannot see house prices in Sutton going below £175k, let alone £100K. And yes, I am very happy where I live, in my house, where I am paying a repayment mortgage that is £300 less than what it would cost to rent it, the deal I am on does not expire for years, and it is a place to LIVE, not an investment, that I have worked extremely hard for. Oh, and I have 30% equity in it, and good savings to boot just in case, so negative equity will not happen for me
  24. I only plan to move somewhere out of London like North Devon when I retire, so no worries about work etc. I've been to Woolacombe, liked it there. I've been to Ilfracombe, nice to spend a day there, but would not move there. I would research these places before I would move to them, as it would (hopefully) be the final move of my life, and would not take place for another 30+ years. However, Poole is my favourite
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.