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JB1981

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Everything posted by JB1981

  1. Well in Japan they have been low for 20 odd yars but who knows. Economists cannot predict a year in advance, what chance will I have? See the constant revisions to UK Growth prospects Also, I remember that when interest rates were 5%, mortgage deals were available for 5% for people with low deposits. Interest rates are now at 0.5%, and people with low deposits again will struggle to get a mortgage deal with an interest rate between 4 to 6%. Wwho says that when interest rates are back at 5%, if the ecomony has recovered, that the mortgage deals will also recover to something like what was offered pre-2007? Interest rate rises may not affect the market as much as you would think.
  2. I think house prices in Sutton are slightly less than 2007, but not much. Wimbledon on the other hand has gone crazy, like the financial crisis never happened, and its only 3 miles from me. I dont understand it. Who buys modest familty homes in Wandsworth for £800k+ when in places like Dorking, Box Hill etc in Surrey you can buy a 4 bed detached with quite a bit of land for the same price? I know where i'd rather live
  3. I am not talking about Northern Ireland or any specific area. I am talking about the Halifax (and Nationwide) indices which average out prices across the whole of the spectrum. In respect of Land Registry figures, which have the specific area stats, the same cannot be disputed. The South is not suffering from falling house prices anyway like the North is. However, as in previous crashes, has this not always been the case? I wouldnt know as I'm not old enough to remember the last crash in terms of sats (I was around 12 years old) Clearly NI is a special case as they are inextricably linked to Ireland and their massive crash. Had NI been part of or close to mainland England, like Scotland, would their prices have fallen as much? I would have thought more likely their prices would have fallen like the North of England, but again I can only speculate on this.
  4. Yes of course I agree with that, the facts speak for themselves. The market has found some sort of equilibrium otherwise they would have fallen further. The amount of supply has also collapsed as I have pointed out in the Surrey thread with few good quality houses on the market
  5. Yes have fallen back and are at 2004 levels when averaged out across the entire country but since 2004 prices increased to 2007 and then they dropped from 2007 to 2009, and have stayed at around the same level since 2009, hence house prices have stayed at the same level for the last 3 years. They have not stayed at the same constant level for 8 years have they. Please read the post carefully.
  6. I dont believe it is a generalisation. The financial crisis started 5 years ago. House prices have remained the same level for over 3 years now. The economy is the same size as 2.5 years ago. Asking prices are at record levels so prices are not seeing any signs of being cut in the near future. If there was a panic, it was in 2008 when prices fell 25% in a year. Houses and flats are sitting longer and longer on the market without prices being cut, or if they are cut its by very little. Lots and lots of people are clearly happy to sit on their hands and wait, and the last 5 years has shown everyone that prices do not go up and up. However, they also simply dont go down and down either. People only really need to get on with life if there is a massive change in circumstances, i.e. change of job, redundancy. People with children do not need to move until there is far too little space i.e. when they children have grown up a bit, otherwise they will just cope with lack of space as long as humanly possible. What evidence is there that there will be another panic anytime soon? As I said, unless there is another massive fiancial shock (Greece dropping out the Euro no longer being one) then I cant see any large drop in house prices anytime soon. Let's see what the grand Euro plan by Mario Draghi is later, could be interesting (or not!)
  7. Please tell me when did £160k become the psycholgical figure? Prices dipped to £146k before bouncing back , whose to say that won't happen again? It's like the stock market, apparently 5000 is the magic number for the FTSE and it drops below that it then drops a lot further. It dropped to 4944.44 in the last year but that was it. Personally I do not believe all that pyscho babble stuff. although it mayhave some influence, it does not have as much as you would think. There are a lot more factors and issues at stake that affect property prices and the wider economy that psychological figures
  8. I would really love to know the amount of £1million+ properties sold in the last year against the amount listed for the entire UK, not just for London. From brief research I think only around 20% of the £1million+ properties listed are actually selling each year. It may actually be a lot less
  9. Prepare yourself for the Haliwide's 1.7% increase in their next monthly report now to counteract this drop! Early prediction lol
  10. The prices and rises in some areas in London are just mad. I have commented on this in the Surrey thread, particuarly in regards to the number of £1million+ houses currently on the market against the amount sold in the last year. Maybe expect a post olympic house price crash in East London? especially with all the Olympic Village flats being sold
  11. I think what happens in the wider economy is the key to house prices. The economy has not grown and is now the same size as it was when the tories took office. Coincidentally, house prices are around the same level they were when the tories also took office. A mild recession which is now happening will not affect house prices in any great way, they will only move mildy downwards. There needs to be some major economic shocks for a large house price drop to now happen again like 2007-2008. There are few forced sellers due to low interest rates, people have no pressure to sell at lower prices, they are happy to either have their property on the market for years and years and live comfortably until it sells or they will simply rent it out if they cant get the price they want, there are plenty of tenants around. There may be less buyers but there is also less supply, so whilst transactions are at a low, so is demand and supply. Hence the stagnation. I dont think even Greece leaving the Euro will affect matters much now, everyone has had time to prepare for it and it has now got to the point where it is expected Greece will leave the Euro so it no longer has the 'shock' factor about it. There needs to be something else.....
  12. The regional variations point is a valid one though. In Sutton, my local market for which I have a fair amount of knowledge, in quite a lot of the roads, properties are selling above the 2007 prices, therefore creating a new peak for these roads. This is particuarly true for houses, not so much for flats. Flats are usually selling for around the 2005 prices. Yet my missus' sister, who lives up in Luton, has seen has house valuation drop from £145k in 2007 to £120k today. Its not so much a North/South divide as a London/the rest divide.
  13. Just out of interest for this post, where do you live?
  14. Thanks for your post. Now, concentrating on the Surrey side of things of your post: I see that 520 £1million+ houses sold in Surrey in the course of a year. There are 1817 properties listed at over £1million in Surrey TODAY. Add in the properties that are no longer listed or have been sold, there is probably around 2,500 houses listed at £1million + over the course of 1 year. Just over 500 of these properties were sold. This is a successful sales rate of just 20% It just shows, the 'rich' are just as delusional if not even more so than mr average joe when it comes to asking prices and expectations. There are clearly not enough millionaires to go around and support thie high end of the market. Timber! (or so you would think)
  15. I agree with you that there are quite a few nice properties available at around £350k in Epsom, Dorking etc. I'm not getting hung up on the top end of the market, I just cant see how, what have always been considered modest family homes, are now selling for around £1million. Clapham for example, apart from the high street, is not even a nice area! Furthermore, who has all this money to pay £1million for smallish houses with no garden? Where are they all coming from? There is not that many people who have £1million at their disposal to spunk on small houses surely. Also, it just makes no sense to me, when much larger properties, even mansions with large amount of gardens, can be bought in much nicer areas such as Epsom Downs, Box Hill, Dorking etc, only a small distance away, for the same amount it costs to buy a relatively small property in Putney, Fulham, Wimbledon etc If I had that much money, I know where I would rather live
  16. True but only in the centre of Kingston Twon Centre and only on a Friday and Saturday night. The rest of the time its nice and it does not affect other parts of Kingston. Plus that same rule applies to virtually all town centres up and down the country at closing time on a friday and saturday night!
  17. I HAVE to respond to this! I think you are getting Sutton mixed up with Croydon. As I have posted up on this site before on different threads, Sutton is the ONLY London Borough in the top 20 places in England and Wales to bring up a child [2011] (yes it's even ahead of Kingston). SEE http://www.sutton.gov.uk/suttonpress/index.aspx?articleid=14637 AND http://www.familyinvestments.co.uk/assets/21503/27093/Family-Hotspots-2011v2.pdf Indeed, in 2008, is was voted as No 7 on the list of happiest places to live in the UK [Yes even ahead of Kingston again] SEE http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2632437/Eight-of-ten-happiest-places-to-live-are-in-Scotland-and-the-North.html Also, having lived here all my life, and gone out on the town most nights of the week, I can tell you as a matter of fact there is absolutely no yob problem. Yes, a few troublemakers/dodgy looking people around, but much less than the majority of the other London Boroughs, and tell me an area which does not have a few of these dodgy characters. Indeed, Sutton has one of the lowest crime rates of any London Borough. It is an absolute myth and mistake or anyone to try and even suggest Sutton has a yob problem or yob image. Indeed, there have been just 2 murders in the last 21 months! See: http://www.suttonneighbourhoodwatch.co.uk/Home/tabid/36/mid/432/iid/42/Default.aspx Oh and this: http://sutton-libdems.org.uk/en/article/2012/575226/sutton-tops-london-s-safe-streets-league Also, what about Sutton having the best schools? [yes ahead of Kingston again] SEE: https://www.sutton.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=15780 What about beautiful women? Ahead of Kingston AGAIN See http://www.thisiscroydontoday.co.uk/beautiful-women-UK-live-Sutton-says-dating-poll/story-15727748-detail/story.html Oh, and the amount of green space in Sutton: See: http://www.aboutbritain.com/towns/london-borough-of-sutton.asp Oh, and not to mention the better and cheaper transport links Sutton has compared to Kingston. Please be aware, I will argue about Sutton until the end of time. Plus I have surveys and articles to back my position up to de bunk all myths about yob problems etc
  18. Go Sutton lol. I think Kingston is lovely but not worth £200k to £300k extra, maybe an additional £100k. What the hell, if I had £200k to £300k spare, i'd buy another house in Sutton and rent it out rather than simply move to the same size house I have now but in a more expensive area.
  19. I note what you say about specific small areas but currently in Surrey alone on rightmove there are 1817 properties listed for £1million +! On rightmove in London I cannot even get an exact figure because every band (£1 - £1.5million, £1.5million to £2million, £2million to £3million and £3million +) has over 1000 properties listed in each one. So there are at least 4000 properties at £1million + in London. It carries on: Kent - 508 over £1million West Sussex - 273 over £1million East Sussex - 272 over £1million Hampshire - 390 over £1million Dorset - 402 over £1million Berkshire - 286 over £1million Buckinghamshire - 474 over £1million Oxfordshire - 241 over £1million Hertfordshire - 629 over £1million Bedfordhire - 57 over £1million Cambridgeshire - 82 over £1million Essex - 662 over £1million So, in the South East excluding London, there are 6093 properties over £1million listed on rightmove. Sorry but I just cannot see how there is this much money floating around in the property market to keep these properties at this level. It just beggars belief. From memory I dont think the national lottery has even created this many millionaires since it began in 1994!!! I mean, in some areas, what can be described as a modest family home sells for £1million. COMMON!
  20. Where do people get this money from? I earn over double the average national wage yet I can barely afford to buy a house for one third of £1m. This is the question I would love answering. From memory, there are not enough lottery millionaires, bankers, aristocrats, politicians and spoilt brats of billionaires around to keep supporting £1million family houses in London, let alone the home counties like Surrey and the rest of the country.
  21. So, like quite a lot of the countryside, you are heavily reliant on access to a car. Better transport links, whilst also a lot more busy, are one of the main reasons people live in cities rather than in the countryside. I love Sutton as the transport links are excellent but we are also on the doorstep of the countryside, with Epsom Downs just a 5 minute drive from where I live. Having said that, I remember going to Woking many years ago, and I thought it was nice, and really you have everything you need on your doorstep. Its only if you want to visit other places other than Central London that things start to become a little more difficult. I recall that quite a lot of Surrey has fast train links to London, like Godalming etc., and apart from the nice countryside, this helps to prop up property prices in much of Surrey, far beyond the reach of your average buyer.
  22. 1. What about all the other countries we have immigration from - Somalia, Turkey etc. We will still have people from these countries arriving on our shores. I think whatever happens, more people will be arriving into the country and than heading out. 2. When new towns are built, new services are also built within these new towns i.e. schools, hospital, GP surgeries, roads, train links etc. These new towns will not affect services which already exist in other towns. Maybe you are unlucky at your GP surgery. I live in Sutton, there has been a glut of flat building and even a closure of a GP surgery in the last 10 years, and yet I can get appointments relatively easily and quickly at the time I want. The same goes for my dental surgery, vet surgery, hospital etc. 3. We do not need Scotland for our water supply. We can redirect it from the North and indeed even the Midlands into the South East. Indeed, apart from the South, most of England and Wales is usually wet most of the year and has well in excess of the water supplies and rainfall they need to sustain the population. We can cut Scotland completely off, we do not need them for water. 4. Again, you just must be unlucky in your area. I can travel 3 miles in 10 minutes by car easily most times of the day except at school start/finish times. By train, I can get to Clapham in 15 minutes, Waterloo and London Bridge (approx 15 miles away) in 30 minutes, Wimbledon (3 miles away) in 10 minutes etc. Even by bus I can get to Kingston, 7 miles away, in 30 minutes. Indeed, I can walk 1 mile every 10 minutes! As for travel in the North, I am not sure where you have been. I have travelled all over the North West for my work, and there are fewer buses, fewer trains (and have you seen some of the state of these trains, the ones in outer Manchester are at least 40 years old and struggle to move along the tracks!). Also snow and rain has a much greater effect up there on transport. Furthermore, I am sure every time I travel up the M6, there is gridlock, and this can be at any time of the day!. I really cannot disagree more about Northern Transport being purportedly better than the South. I see you live in Woking, which is supposed to be nice, but from what you have said, I must remember never to move there, it sounds terrible!
  23. Sorry my mistake. Yeah we dont have a river in Sutton lol, that makes all the difference. Imagine this, a 3-bed house in Sutton sells for £300k and an identical 3-bed house 0.5 miles from the river in Kingston sells - the price - £600k. Having a river close by doubles the house price! Although in the Lake District having a river close by probably halves the price - you never know when your house will be washed away! We do have good shops in Sutton but admittedly not anywhere near the quality or quantity of Kingston. Having said that, being close to ok shops or decent shops would not double the house price for me. I also like going to the river in Summer, the rest of the year it can **** off! The house price difference also cannot be argued by the ripple effect - Sutton has Wimbledon less than 3 miles/10 min bus ride away where house prices are more mental than Kingston! I suppose the only advantage of Sutton having relatively low prices compared to the rest of London is that I can afford it now and not have to move away to a cheaper location away from family and friends to buy a place. The reason why house prices are twice the amount in Kingston than in Sutton - its a mystery!
  24. It also depends on the specific area. From what you are saying about Sutton (nice green area, good links, 3 bed semi £350k) it hasnt been affected by City money as badly as other areas. If you go to Richmond, or even further out to Esher and Weybridge there is nothing like that level of affordability. As I said earlier in the thread, I live in relatively unfashionable Surbiton and that is the same, so it is not just the super-rich areas. I once remember reading that before the boom, Sutton was the 8th most expensive London Borough to buy in, and now it is something like 25th most expensive out of the 33 London Boroughs. Croydon is only slightly cheaper than Sutton but you could not pay me to live there. You say Sutton is relatively unfashionable, but it got voted in the top 20 places to bring up children out of the UK just last year, and was the only London Borough to make it into the top 20. The lst taken into account was amount of green space, quality of the schools and transport links and level of house prices (enough said). I would love to be able to afford to live somewhere like Kingston, Richmond, Kew etc. but you need a lottery win just to buy the same size house that I can buy in Sutton for £300k. Also, if I did win the lottery, I would rather splash my cash on a house in the countryside (but near a good rail link to London) that is five times the size, easy to park in my own drive and has a large nice garden (a decent garden and own parking space - try and find that for £1million in Kew etc !). I think I am a relatively intelligent person, but house prices in Richmond, Kew, Kingston etc. are beyond reasonableness, common sense or one ounce of intelligence. I really just cannot believe how expensive it is to live in these areas! It really makes me wander..... Queue Eric Pebble and his liar loans comments lol
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