Report Lifecycle of the bubble, where are we? in House prices and the economy Posted December 7, 2016 In terms of lifetime of the current cycle, I would also refer to the economic cycle issue I raised which is now in the economics forum. This basically shows that throughout the last 225 years, prices usually increase for an average of 14 years and fall for 4 years. The only events to disrupt this cycle ever are the first and second world wars. Looking at the Land Registry monthly chart, the following occurred 2007 - house prices rose 11 out of 12 months 2008 - house prices fell 9 out of 12 months (with 2 months prices unmoved) 2009 - house prices fell 6 out of 12 months 2010 - house prices fell 7 out of 12 months 2011 - house prices fell 6 out of 12 months (with 2 months prices unmoved) 2012 - house prices rose 7 out of 12 months This follows the economic cycle of 14 + 4. In the 4 year period between 2008 to 2011 house prices fell 28 times, stayed the same 4 times and increased 16 times. If the same cycle which has been repeated almost on a loop for the last two centuries is repeated again, unless World War III occurs, house prices will not fall again until the end of 2025! I know this goes against everyone's beliefs, including my own, but dies two centuries of history lie? You got to ask yourself that question. In view of this, I think we are in the Media Attention phase of the cycle, with take off occurring in 2013 or 2014. Fear occurred in December 2007 and capitulation happened in 2008 with the -2% monthly drops. Unless the house price crash brigade can prove it really is different this time.