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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by JB1981

  1. In terms of lifetime of the current cycle, I would also refer to the economic cycle issue I raised which is now in the economics forum. This basically shows that throughout the last 225 years, prices usually increase for an average of 14 years and fall for 4 years. The only events to disrupt this cycle ever are the first and second world wars. Looking at the Land Registry monthly chart, the following occurred 2007 - house prices rose 11 out of 12 months 2008 - house prices fell 9 out of 12 months (with 2 months prices unmoved) 2009 - house prices fell 6 out of 12 months 2010 - house prices fell 7 out of 12 months 2011 - house prices fell 6 out of 12 months (with 2 months prices unmoved) 2012 - house prices rose 7 out of 12 months This follows the economic cycle of 14 + 4. In the 4 year period between 2008 to 2011 house prices fell 28 times, stayed the same 4 times and increased 16 times. If the same cycle which has been repeated almost on a loop for the last two centuries is repeated again, unless World War III occurs, house prices will not fall again until the end of 2025! I know this goes against everyone's beliefs, including my own, but dies two centuries of history lie? You got to ask yourself that question. In view of this, I think we are in the Media Attention phase of the cycle, with take off occurring in 2013 or 2014. Fear occurred in December 2007 and capitulation happened in 2008 with the -2% monthly drops. Unless the house price crash brigade can prove it really is different this time.
  2. Unfortunately no one has a crystal ball. Remember the saying - the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent People whom thought prices were in bubble territory in 2003 missed out on the biggest increases in the cycle. People whom think prices are in bubble territory in 2013 have made the same mistake. People in 2016 may also make the same mistake by waiting for prices to go down. On the other hand they might be right and prices go down over the next few years. Who knows? Personally it feels as if things are being held in stasis at the moment due to the low interest rates meaning mortgages are currently affordable which may not be if rates increase. However the last thing any government or central bank wants to do is crash house prices so i cannot see interest rates increasing anytime soon and the government and banks would rather see the money supply rapidly increase through inflation thus eroding the debt. Countries with their own central bank with a printing press will not default - USA, UK, Japan etc. will just keep printing. Unless there is a major black swan event, I cannot see this situation changing anytime soon.
  3. People who own - good for them. People who are happy renting - good for them. Some people get lucky with the house price cycle. Others get burnt. In the long run (say you buy a house age 30, get married, have kids, manage to work long enough to pay off the mortgage, kids leave home however many years later), homes bought for living in would have increased in value but then everything else would have increased in price as well, its all relative. The main thing is at the end of the day everyone tries to live their life as best and as fully as possible.
  4. So whats to say they do not let interest rates stay beneath 1% for the next 10 years and start people's quantitative easing to build infrastructure etc. Plus there always the possibility of helicopter money and a citizen's universal income being introduced. There is plenty left in the tank for politicians and central bankers alike. Inflation could yet take hold and erode the value of the debt significantly as has happened on many occasions in the past. With people living longer than ever and constant medical advances supply is always going to be behind demand as it has been pretty much forever as the number of years there are price rises greatly outnumber the years in which they have fallen. And what if Brexit is a success and we enter a new trading frontier with massive economies like USA, China, Australia, India etc? Europe and the euro are fast declining force in the world (Europe's GDP is around 17% of the global GDP whereas it was around 35% in 1975) and it will be great once we are no longer shackled to the EU straitjacket. Plus there is also the fact that technology advances are continuing at a faster rate than ever. Look at the advances made between 1995 to 2015 when compared to the advances between 1975 - 1995 - there has been a significant speeding up in advances being made. We are entering the new digital age, more people can work from home so less travel costs. Also, the oil age is nearly over, as investment in solar and other forms of energy, electric cars etc gathers apace. It will not be long before the big six power firms are redundant as each home will effectively be it's own mini power station. This is a very exciting time to be alive with many new forms of technology only in the beginnings and their full potential is yet to be realised (graphene, energy storage etc). Personally I think it is time to stop waiting for the crash (which will happen at some point, I have no doubt about that, as it always does) and start living life.
  5. Look at the Nationwide house price trend, I note the following: Start of information available (it is not known if this is the trough) - Q1 1975 - £10,388.00 - increasing for 14 years to Peak - Q3 1989 - £62,782.00 - then 6 years of drops to Trough - Q4 1995 - £50,930.00 - then 2 years to pass previous peak Pass previous peak - Q1 1998 - £62,903.00 - then a further 10 years of increases to Peak - Q4 2007 - £186,959.00 then 1 year of drops to Trough - Q1 2009 - £149,700.00 then 5 years to pass previous peak Pass previous peak - Q2 2014 - £186,544 Trends: Increases from Trough to Peak - 12 years (1995 - 2007) to 14 years (1975 - 1989) First cycle - Q1 1975 - Q1 1998 - 23 years Second cycle - Q1 1998 - Q2 2014 - 16 years Period from drops starting until previous peak is passed - 6 years (Q1 2008 - Q2 2014) to 8 years (Q3 1989 - Q4 1997) According to this the next crash is not due until 2021 - 2023 with the trough occurring around 2023 to 2029 (depending on whether it is a short sharp crash i.e. 2007-2009 or a slow burner like 1989-1995). This fits in with my subject about an average 18 year property cycle shown to exist for over 200 years where increases last around 18 years and the falls last around 4 years (now relegated to the economic part of this forum) which has only ever been distorted by world wars one and two. To say it is different this time is a rubbish argument, there have been government stimulus's and low interest rates as well as much higher national debt in the past as well as the present. Unless world war three happens, I think anyone waiting for a crash is going to be in for a long wait.
  6. So what you seem to be saying is that the system has never had measures before to prop up the system and it really is different this time? I don't buy that. Help to buy has been around since the 80s. The Marshall Plan was one of the biggest ever government stimuluses after the second world war. Low interest rates have been around before. Shared ownership also has a considerable history from well before the financial crash. Government debt has been as high as 250% of GDP before and is currently only 90% so plenty more room for the government to stimulate. There is a shortage of property being built and as the boomers, many of whom have no mortgage, are expected to live on average another 25 years, the supply side is not due to dramatically increase any time soon. The fact is the old saying that markets can stay irrational longer than you stay solvent is more appropriate than ever. Say you were living in London and was 25 in 2003 and then waited from 2003 to 2007 for the crash. The crash happened - great, but did not drop as far as you thought or hoped it would so you decided to carry on waiting to see if it would drop even more. Now it is nearly 2017 and prices are now 50odd% higher than before the crash. You are now nearly 40 and soon will struggle to get a mortgage and have been even more priced out. If this cycle remains true to the past 200 years, you will still be waiting until 2025 or age 47 until the next crash hit, and allowing 4 years for the full crash to occur before prices start rising again you will be 51, too old to get a morgage, start a family etc.
  7. I know but I had to remove the link from the previous thread as it revealed my email address. I have made a new thread with the best of intentions because I had to remove the link from the last thread. It is definitely not spam and I can only apologise for the previous thread in which I had to remove the link I am happy for the mods to close the other thread or delete it completely and simply leave this thread open
  8. Dear All, I am neither a bull nor a bear and I do not care if house prices go up or down, however I do find this forum interesting as part of my general passing interest of articles in relation to economics and house prices. This will probably make you jump up and down but this centuries old proven property cycle suggests that the property bull market is due to run until 2025. http://www.phillipjanderson.com/18-year-real-estate-cycle/ Whilst this is an American study it does show a clear pattern generally in Western Society that has only ever been interrupted by Word War I and World War II. Short of World War III, are you guys prepared to wait until 2026 for your house price crash? Or is it really different this time? Please respond in the intention this post has been submitted, as I am very interested to see what people think of this apparent cycle which exists in property and that house prices, despite how unaffordable they are, may continue to go up for another 9 years!
  9. RickyD, it is not a prediction, it is simply showing how the property has moved in the same loop for the last 222 years and that at present if the same cycle carrys on we have another 10 years of HPI in front of us Common people, I was hoping for intelligent replies, not allegations it is spam and certainly not old quotes from ancient times
  10. If you click to leave the page it then asks you if you want to leave the page or stay on the page. If you click stay it changes from a video to a written text I promise you it is not spam, it is full of charts and is an alternative way of thought other than simply saying house prices are too high, there is too much debt in the system etc. Whilst I do not disagree with this, the charts are thought provoking
  11. Before I start I am neither a bull nor a bear, I just have a passing interest in economics. Has anyone heard of the economic formula 18 + 4 + 4? Please follow this link as it makes interesting reading. Please read the whole article before criticizing this. This article and expert's views goes against virtually everyone's current view on house prices including most economists. Link withdrawn as it gave away my email address This trend is proven to go back over 200 years. It shows that the present property bull market has around another 10 years to run (I personally don't see how but there you go). Before debunking this can you provide research to the contrary or your own views as to why this formula will not work this time around (other than World War III) as it has been shown to work almost exactly to this timeline since 1794 and has only been interrupted by World Wars I and II. I personally can only see this trend continuing by a great inflation devaluing debt or massive wage increases as a result of inflation and new career frontiers (like in robotics and solar technology), medical breakthroughs continuing to increase life expectancy until an average age is 100+, an exponential increase in skilled jobs like engineering, a smooth great energy shift from oil to solar and also the continuing exponential technological advances being made throughout the world (just compare technology now to 20 years ago, it has been an exciting time to be living though and witnessing). Also the amount of properties being built has to continue to be less than demand! I am looking forward to some good and interesting responses!
  12. You could not pay me to live in Luton I would rather live with my Mother than buy there or rent in a nicer better area or just live in a shoebox in a nicer area. How anyone can sell a house in Luton is beyond me - there must be desperate or uneducated buyers! Don't get me wrong - it has things going for it - fast train to London, an airport, motorway links, near nice countryside and also near other nice towns - but the problem is it is the ugliest place to live in the UK with high crime rates, low education standards, rubbish shops and poor healthcare. Luton should be knocked down so they can start again and re-build it. No amount of 'regeneration' can save Luton, it would be a moneypit as it is too big and ugly and it would be cheaper to simply knock it down and rebuild. Given its proximity to London it should be a lot nicer than it is but until recently you could still buy a house there for around £100k - just 30 miles from London and with a fast train (less than 30mins) to Kings Cross! You could build a massive newtown in place of the old Luton - providing regeneration and a nice place to live for lots of people and easing the overcrowding of the South East and at the same time removing the biggest eyesore from the British Isles. As for knowledge of Luton, I do not live there myself, but I have inlaws which live there, so I know it very well.
  13. Did anyone find out what this new house/old public toilet sold for?
  14. I remember Plaistow in an early property ladder programme in around 1999/2000. It was described as one of the last areas where you could buy a house for less than £100k Cant see how such an average looking house with 7 bedrooms and a tiny garden in this area is worth more than £350k
  15. Careful with newbuilds, they can have more issues and problems with them than older properties For example, I know someone who built a new build, and two years after buying, they have to have it re-wired and there is a lot of damp. Also the garden, underneath the layer of top soil, is full of bits of rubbish like old bits of the fireplace from the property that was stood there previously and demolished. As for the NHBC guarantee, the building company is refusing to pay out or admit any liability, and a lengthy legal process will now ensue. As for now, the people who bought this new build are substamtially out of pocket, and may not ever see any of it back I would always go for an older style property, they are usually better built, last longer, are easier to sell in future, have bigger room proportions etc Fair enough, they might need some cosmetic updating, but usually you can just move in and update as you go along. Also you tend to make massive losses on new builds when trying to sell them, as they are usually priced at 20%+ above the prices for the same size properties in the same area, a 'builders premium'.
  16. My missus comes from near there, and knows a lot of the local stories. For example, at the local Nandos on Uxbridge Road, it is known as the local burger and a bullet joint, after someone got shot and murdered whilst eating in there! I've walked around there at night a few times and know a few people who live on the white city estate through my missus. I'd give you odds of 100/1 that you will not find a woman or man who did not have a child by the age of 25, or does not have a drug habit, or does not have a criminal record. Let alone they all where chav suits including the adults. A few years ago I was once the victim of card fraud wirh £8k taken from my account, went to the local police station on Uxbridge road to report it, and they basically told me they do not have the time to investigate it as there are too many murders, stabbings, drugs, gun crime etc to deal with and they would only give me a crime number so the bank insurance would give me my stolen money back! £350K to live there? You would have to give me a winning euromillions ticket to live there. And that has to be a jackpot that has rolled over at least five times and is the sole winning ticket!
  17. Heres my twopence worth First off, the US will reach a deal on the 'Fiscal Cliff' at 5pm on 31st December 2012 1. Base rates to remain unchanged at 0.5% throughout the year 2. Inflation will not fall below 2% once, peaking at 4% in September 3. Lloyds and RBS bank shares will not go above the threshold where the Treasury can start selling them at a profit 4. House prices will bubble between £155,000.00 and £165,000.00 through the year, ending roughly where they started 5. The FTSE will go above 6000, peaking at 6,300 and not going below 5,500 6. Unemployment will go down to 2,250,000.00 by the end of the year 7. The coalition will remain together and Osbourne after fiddling the figures will beat his deficit forecasts 8. Overall growth for the UK economy for the year to be 0.3% 9. The EU and Euro will stay together with even Greece staying in 10. Gold will not go above any previous peaks and will bubble between 1,500 and 1800 USD 11. Brent Oil will go between 90 and 125 USD throughout the year 12. The exchange rates for the Pound will show a slight strengthening against the Euro and Dollar for no particular reason, just a guess by me. And overall next year will be very boring, with no massive events happening despite lots of potential and all crises being averted at the last minute, lots of talk, little action, and no Big Bang imploding the markets. Basically like the last four years just carrying on, a zombie world economy And all the above is futile if the world ends on Friday!
  18. Also, and without meaning to sound rascist, but Morden is home to the biggest mosque in Western Europe, where the old Dairy used to be, next to Morden South Train station. To be honest, when you draw up a list of reasons to live in Morden and reasons NOT to live in Morden, the list of reasons NOT to live in Morden is much longer, hence why it is so much cheaper than nearby Wimbledon etc
  19. I dont know Earlsfield, bu I go to Morden everyday and I knew lots of people who lived in Morden... once, they couldnt wait to move out to the surrounding areas. It is grey and depressing. The biggest mosque in Western Europe is in Morden - puts loads of people off. That high street (or lack of it) with that huge great big ugly Council building in the middle that can be seen from every garden in the whole of morden. Low quality housing - some flats can be considered to look like a wing of a prison especially along Martin Way opposite the train station, the St Helier Estate which is the 88th most deprived area of the UK and which goes right to the the doorstep of Morden station - need I say more? There are pubs - extremely rough pubs. I have seen 30 man brawls in Morden and the police dont want to get involved its so vicious. The schools in the surrounding areas such as Wimbledon and Sutton are top rated and Morden's schools pale in comparison and are considered some of the worst schools in the south west part of London. It is nextdoor to Mitcham - hell hole of the entire area Outside activities - Morden has one main park (Morden Park, admittedly I like it there) and one small park with a tennis centre Need I say more
  20. Because is it horrible, the housing is low quality, the amenities non-existent, the schools low quality and there is nothing to do. I have friends who grew up in Morden who could not wait to leave
  21. You will interested in reading the Surrey thread under the south east section of this website. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=178774&st=30 I agree with everything you say, house prices in Kingston, surrounding areas and Wimbledon etc. are unexplainably high
  22. I'm just interested; When did Japan begin QE'ing and have they ever unwound any of it so far?
  23. Peston's attempt at an explanation: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20270002 Still all sounds fishy
  24. And who will ever find out? Its all done electronically, and in this digital age anything can be hidden these days by the Government if they try hard enough
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