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House Price Crash Forum


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About JB1981

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  1. In terms of lifetime of the current cycle, I would also refer to the economic cycle issue I raised which is now in the economics forum. This basically shows that throughout the last 225 years, prices usually increase for an average of 14 years and fall for 4 years. The only events to disrupt this cycle ever are the first and second world wars. Looking at the Land Registry monthly chart, the following occurred 2007 - house prices rose 11 out of 12 months 2008 - house prices fell 9 out of 12 months (with 2 months prices unmoved) 2009 - house prices fell 6 out of 12 mon
  2. Unfortunately no one has a crystal ball. Remember the saying - the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent People whom thought prices were in bubble territory in 2003 missed out on the biggest increases in the cycle. People whom think prices are in bubble territory in 2013 have made the same mistake. People in 2016 may also make the same mistake by waiting for prices to go down. On the other hand they might be right and prices go down over the next few years. Who knows? Personally it feels as if things are being held in stasis at the moment due to the low in
  3. People who own - good for them. People who are happy renting - good for them. Some people get lucky with the house price cycle. Others get burnt. In the long run (say you buy a house age 30, get married, have kids, manage to work long enough to pay off the mortgage, kids leave home however many years later), homes bought for living in would have increased in value but then everything else would have increased in price as well, its all relative. The main thing is at the end of the day everyone tries to live their life as best and as fully as possible.
  4. So whats to say they do not let interest rates stay beneath 1% for the next 10 years and start people's quantitative easing to build infrastructure etc. Plus there always the possibility of helicopter money and a citizen's universal income being introduced. There is plenty left in the tank for politicians and central bankers alike. Inflation could yet take hold and erode the value of the debt significantly as has happened on many occasions in the past. With people living longer than ever and constant medical advances supply is always going to be behind demand as it has been pretty m
  5. Look at the Nationwide house price trend, I note the following: Start of information available (it is not known if this is the trough) - Q1 1975 - £10,388.00 - increasing for 14 years to Peak - Q3 1989 - £62,782.00 - then 6 years of drops to Trough - Q4 1995 - £50,930.00 - then 2 years to pass previous peak Pass previous peak - Q1 1998 - £62,903.00 - then a further 10 years of increases to Peak - Q4 2007 - £186,959.00 then 1 year of drops to Trough - Q1 2009 - £149,700.00 then 5 years to pass previous peak Pass previous peak - Q2 2014 - £186,544 T
  6. So what you seem to be saying is that the system has never had measures before to prop up the system and it really is different this time? I don't buy that. Help to buy has been around since the 80s. The Marshall Plan was one of the biggest ever government stimuluses after the second world war. Low interest rates have been around before. Shared ownership also has a considerable history from well before the financial crash. Government debt has been as high as 250% of GDP before and is currently only 90% so plenty more room for the government to stimulate. There is a shortage of property be
  7. I know but I had to remove the link from the previous thread as it revealed my email address. I have made a new thread with the best of intentions because I had to remove the link from the last thread. It is definitely not spam and I can only apologise for the previous thread in which I had to remove the link I am happy for the mods to close the other thread or delete it completely and simply leave this thread open
  8. Dear All, I am neither a bull nor a bear and I do not care if house prices go up or down, however I do find this forum interesting as part of my general passing interest of articles in relation to economics and house prices. This will probably make you jump up and down but this centuries old proven property cycle suggests that the property bull market is due to run until 2025. http://www.phillipjanderson.com/18-year-real-estate-cycle/ Whilst this is an American study it does show a clear pattern generally in Western Society that has only ever been interrupted by Word War I
  9. RickyD, it is not a prediction, it is simply showing how the property has moved in the same loop for the last 222 years and that at present if the same cycle carrys on we have another 10 years of HPI in front of us Common people, I was hoping for intelligent replies, not allegations it is spam and certainly not old quotes from ancient times
  10. If you click to leave the page it then asks you if you want to leave the page or stay on the page. If you click stay it changes from a video to a written text I promise you it is not spam, it is full of charts and is an alternative way of thought other than simply saying house prices are too high, there is too much debt in the system etc. Whilst I do not disagree with this, the charts are thought provoking
  11. Before I start I am neither a bull nor a bear, I just have a passing interest in economics. Has anyone heard of the economic formula 18 + 4 + 4? Please follow this link as it makes interesting reading. Please read the whole article before criticizing this. This article and expert's views goes against virtually everyone's current view on house prices including most economists. Link withdrawn as it gave away my email address This trend is proven to go back over 200 years. It shows that the present property bull market has around another 10 years to run (I personally don't see how
  12. You could not pay me to live in Luton I would rather live with my Mother than buy there or rent in a nicer better area or just live in a shoebox in a nicer area. How anyone can sell a house in Luton is beyond me - there must be desperate or uneducated buyers! Don't get me wrong - it has things going for it - fast train to London, an airport, motorway links, near nice countryside and also near other nice towns - but the problem is it is the ugliest place to live in the UK with high crime rates, low education standards, rubbish shops and poor healthcare. Luton should be knocked down so they ca
  13. Did anyone find out what this new house/old public toilet sold for?
  14. I remember Plaistow in an early property ladder programme in around 1999/2000. It was described as one of the last areas where you could buy a house for less than £100k Cant see how such an average looking house with 7 bedrooms and a tiny garden in this area is worth more than £350k
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