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bucks hopeful

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  1. Just when EAs started listing more affordable properties I realised we must be looking at a +ve figure from Rightmove regardless First the handy typo: £2.35 million terrace - a keen seller would probably ask £235k - just a quick oops to the vendor and the Rightmove stats will never know. I was only sensitised to this because I had started wondering about this 2 bed place for more than £600k. Probably close to the real price, but this place sold recently, board came down, was taken off Rightmove and now magically appears as a nice expensive 2 bed list - shown as sold immediately so shouldn't come to the attention of the occupant. Full marks for creativity.
  2. Hi again Gordon, I'm glad you took the time to contact me whilst on holiday. With respect to your problems with "Morgan" Milliband - I think I have a CIO person who could help you - and I don't mean an IT Director Also I believe I could help with you housing shortage - we have so many we are having to give them away........... Yours, Bob
  3. In fact it's carnage down there suddenly - if I recall correctly SA did once top the Economist league for highest property growth rates in the world - now look where it's got them!! Latest Standard Bank figures show YoY prices (median) dropped 13.5%. Now let's put this in context over time - last month's figures showed a drop of -5.5% - and that was the first drop in 8 years!!. As mentioned in original post adjusting for inflation makes these 23+% and 15+% respectively. Lew Geffen is actually being quite bullish if he thinks 25% will make for a quick sale.
  4. Interesting news item - not so bullish in South Africa (and don't forget that inflation is over 10% too): "Letter from Lew Geffen, head of Lew Geffen Sotheby's International Realty, to his agents - and released to the media this week. Recessionary Strategies - State of the market As you know the recession is biting even deeper and strategies of 3 months ago are no longer relevant. The mere fact that the banks are requiring 25 % equity indicates strongly that they have factored that the market will drop another 25% on top of what the market has already come down i.e. plus, minus 15%. To my mind that means that the market will come down 40% from the highs of last year which is hugely significant. Take into account that today a man who wants to purchase a R2 million property which is the average selling price in our company will have to earn in excess of R87 000 gross per month in order to qualify and if the market drops by 25% that same person will need to earn R65200 gross which is also no picnic. There are 60% less buyers in the market than recorded at the same time last year. Attendances at showhouses are generally poor (Echoes of Sharpeville) and only when the Agent has convinced the seller to use the most aggressive parameters i.e. 40% below asking price, does the showhouse receive 10 couples or more leading to a subsequent sale. All the guns are loaded against us in this market and it will take your own courage and perspecuity in order to survive. This morning I told a member of my own family to drop his price by 25% in order to get a quick sale and I would advise you to tell your clients the same. It's a question of being truthful to your clients to save them severe pain by procrastinating and not accepting the offer today. Today's low offer is tomorrow's miracle price. This market is not going to recover anytime soon. The tough must get going! Signed LEW GEFFEN"
  5. -0.6% MoM -1.1% YoY Seasonal adjustment will make the latter bigger than the former
  6. "The good times are now well and truly behind the residential property sector, with the latest house price figures showing that values have plummeted by more than 5%." in South Africa according to Realestateweb "House prices are now falling - latest residential property figures point to market panic." and other such phrases to cheer a bear on a Sunday. A few days behind the news so apologies if already posted.
  7. FNAIM (Estate Agents body in France) show drops in March in their latest release: -1% for the quarter - all properties -1.9% for the quarter - houses -1.6% for the month - houses +0.1% for the month - all properties +2.5% for the year - all properties Bears are roaming free..........
  8. Just noticed a trend on property bee (past day or two) for agents to put road names on properties that have been on the market for a while. Presumably this will enable wealthy buyers (who are just too shy to go and visit the agent first) to drive by and fall in love with the fantastic homes on offer. There must, after all, be some reason why these amazing houses just haven't budged for weeks and months - and only the naive would think of trying a price reduction
  9. Abbey withdraws 100% LTV mortgage: "Abbey has withdrawn its range of 100 per cent mortgage products. The last remaining lender in the 100 per cent market, Abbey's decision has hammered the final nail in the coffin for deposit-less buyers. A spokesperson for Abbey said: ""In order to maintain high service levels on the business we write, we are simplifying our mortgage range and repricing in some areas."
  10. Just checked Bucks and 36 pages!! Okay don't know previous peak for county so checked various postcode areas that had been running at 0-4 reductions since Christmas (and mostly 0-1 at end of Jan) and they are 10+ and in many cases the pink ones (recent reductions) account for 25-30% of all reductions listed. The Mexican stand-off has ended
  11. The bad news is leaking out to the masses - Sky news covering how interest rate cuts not being passed on to customers!!. "The big banks have been accused of exploiting homeowners with a series of sharp mortgage rate increases - even though interest rates are in decline. Find out why home loan costs are rising - and where to find the best deals" The big banks and building societies have been accused of "sneaky" tactics by increasing mortgage rates in the weeks leading up to last week's interest rate announcement - which means any subsequent rate falls simply put customers back on an even keel. The banks argue that pricing decisions are based on other factors beyond the base rate, which are keeping rates relatively high. "The credit crunch is affecting the availability and pricing of loans in parts of the market, as well as on the total amount and cost of funding available to lenders overall," says a CML spokesperson. "At this complex time, it's incorrect to assume that a base rate reduction will, or should, automatically result in a cut in standard variable rates or discounted mortgage rates." "Rate rises A number of lenders upped their standard variable rates (SVR) in the two weeks leading up to February's interest rate decision. The Co-op Bank raised its SVR by 0.35% to 7.24%, while RBS / NatWest and Alliance & Leicester both increased theirs by 0.3%, to 7.44% and 7.39% respectively. Several lenders also increased rates for customers switching to tracker mortgages - deals that rise and fall in line with the base rate. Research from price comparison website Moneyfacts reveals that 10 mortgage lenders increased the margins on tracker mortgages by as much as 0.45% during the last two weeks of January. These increases have seen the average cost of a mortgage rise sharply over the past few months. For example, back in November you could get a tracker from Nationwide at 5.08% - but the same deal is now priced at 5.23%.". As mentioned by other posters - where is all the talk of supply outstripping demand and sound fundamentals?
  12. but then again with 351% gain realised from 1996-2007 (Economist) it's easy to see how bubbles can be seen as more of history in a parallel universe than a cycle of reality
  13. Given their inflation rate is somewhere between 6 & 9% depending on measure things are in something of a reversal already!!
  14. Just when they all thought it was different over there have a look at this SA Property Mag.... Van Jaarsveldt continues: “This year will become an even stronger buyers’ market than we anticipated in 2007, and crucially we will continue to see property prices dip on average between 10 and 15 % below the original asking price for properties listed towards the end of 2007. “Consumers who want to sell their property in a hurry are urged to list it at 10% below what they wanted to achieve in December last year. “The good news is that it is a great time for first time home-buyers to enter the market, with the unique balance of affordability and strong value making this foray into real estate a brilliant proposition.” Okay ends on the usual trail of doublespeak where "value" is strong in spite of "weak" price and suggest FTBs might be conspicuous by their absence over there
  15. Quite easy to recreate using the data on Seasonal Adjustment (SA) in their report. Without debating how valid their approach to SA is, it's interesting to look at the change in the unadjusted prices: 1 month: -0.9% 3 month: -3.0% 6 month: -2.1% 9 month: +0.1% 12 month: +4.2% Even at this rate we go YoY negative in May - as posted elsewhere Seasonal adjustment is the high point in one direction in January (SA price is pushed up by 1.6%)and the low point in July the other way (price is pushed down 1.3%) - so a drop would effectively increase in the summer if non SA prices keeping going down at same rate
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