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George Sore-Ass

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About George Sore-Ass

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  1. I have lived in Dubai for the last (nearly) four years. These guys are dreaming if they think the UK is going to do anything to help them out. Caveat emptor. You signed bad contracts on what was obviously a ponzi scheme to anyone with half a brain in a country with a non-existent legal system. This is the problem of the British government? The British government has more to worry about inside its own borders. Where I think the British govt might end up involved is when the UAE follows Kuwait's proposals and starts to block people leaving if they have unpaid debts that are behind on payments etc. There are something like 50,000 brits, and a fair amount of them are clueless morons who've sunk everything they earned into the Dubai property bubble. If say 10,000 brits get locked up in debtor jails in the UAE, i can imagine the UK government and UAE relationship being rather strained. Market rent for my apartment has halved in the past 5 months, I am going to spend the windfall on a powered paraglider or speedboat, just in case i need to leggit to Ark Royal when the sh1t really hits the fan.
  2. Funniest thing is that in the last month, Dubai's big cheeses have clearly ordered a crack down on 'media lies', this one got the treatment too http://www.arabianbusiness.com/545894-only...t-in-past-year- Now the funny thing is that they guys don't seem to realize you cannot do a '1984' and rewrite the worldwide web stories out there that quoted clear evidence to contract Dubai's official line. Like this for example: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2170843/posts (this news article was widely syndicated) "On the night of December 31, 2008 alone more than 80 vehicles were found at the airport. "Sixty cars were seized on the first day of this year," director general of Airport Security, Mohammed Bin Thani, told DNA over the phone. On the same day, deputy director of traffic, colonel Saif Mohair Al Mazroui, said they seized 22 cars abandoned at a prohibited area in the airport." So, is the Chief of Dubai police calling the Chief of Airport security and the Deputy Director of Traffic liars too? They really have their knickers in a twist. Dubai loved all the attention it got, now that the shit is hitting the fan, they are throwing hissy fits and doing their best to ban bad news. A new media law makes it punishable by huge fines to publish any news detrimental to the economy.
  3. I think the Dubai authorities are being rather 'revisionist' in their attempt to airbrush the news in 1984 fashion. The original reports specifically referred to cars being abandoned *outside* Dubai airport. For example: http://www.dnaindia.com/mobile/report.asp?n=1221350 The indian chap mentioned makes clear that cars bought on credit are simply left in streets in Dubai. We have quotes from named individuals, the director general of Airport security and deputy director of traffic, colonel Saif Mohair Al Mazroui. But then a month later Lieutenant-General Dhahi Khalfan Tamim, Chief of Dubai Police, calls a press conference and accused the Times reporter outright of 'lying', and said that people are just envious of Dubai's success. The reports never said 'at the airport' they said 'outside the airport'. Maybe Mr Police Chief is being deliberatly obtuse. Looks like panic is setting in amongst the bigwigs. They're now rubbishing the newspapers they were courting like mad for the last few years.
  4. Hot on the heels of the 'correction' over the one family one villa rule (it was never a one family one villa rule) and the cars abandoned at the airport (actually it was just 11 not 3000), I see today that Dubai has come out with the figures for visa cancellations. Lo and behold - Dubai is still booming! The official figures prove it and Dubai officials never fib. The announcement came with a good brown nosing plug for the excellent leadership of the past 40 years and the fact that Dubai is super at turning challenges into opportunities. Big hearty feel-good backslaps all round! Three cheers for Dubai! The **net** figure is 30,000 new residence visas per month, which means as of Jan, Dubai's population is growing at 360,000 people per year. In a city with 1.5 million people. Yes folks, according to Dubai officials, 3 months into the credit crunch, in a state where the census records 50% of people work in construction and we have been told that 50% of projects are suspended or cancelled, the population grew by a rate of 20% per annum. I think some of the population might shake their heads in disbelief. "But what about all the job losses!?" they shout! Never fear. The Dubai officials will very soon produce new accurate statistics to prove that there have been no house price falls, rent falls, hotel occupancy falls, declines in mortgage lending and no net job losses. Yes, all those real estate and developer job losses have been offset by HUGE job creation in.... somewhere or other that might not be revealed yet but really is not just made up. And remember. These statistics will be issued by Dubai officials, under the auspices of.... you know who.... and I should just take some time to point out how talented, intelligent and well, jolly good looking the leadership of Dubai is. Just in case they are reading this. I did hear that the former iraqi information minister Comical "no US tanks in Bagdad" Ali was living in Sharjah. I wonder whether he has been briefing officials on how to handle PR during a crisis?
  5. Property in Dubai a good long term investment? Don't tell me, you are Ronnie Wood and your investment criteria is to lose as much cash as possible to avoid your estranged Mrs getting it? Otherwise you are quite frankly talking out your ****. Dubai property will fall at least 80% peak to trough. How long term are you thinking? 100 years is a bit beyond what I am looking for for my retirement fund.
  6. I do too, now it is getting cheaper and emptier. Long may it continue! I wonder where Ferrari 430 is and how his investments in 5 new apartments is fairing? He has not been around for a while to tell us how well he is doing. Maybe he has skipped town Maybe he's not Ferrari 430 anymore? Maybe he's Fiat 500 now?
  7. I live in the Greens, and the RERA rental index says 110-130k for a one bed flat here. These numbers are well out of date already, that is peak of boom stuff. I went down to the pool yesterday and my friend said as he got in the lift, a guy was posting a rental advert for his 1 bed apartment there which he seemed quite desperate to fill. Advert said 85k, but my friend reckons the guy would have gone lower if you negotiated. So in the space of less than six months, that is about a 30 percent fall. And there appear to be more empty properties around. So much for 'if you cannot sell, just rent it out'. It seems as more and more people bail, rents will plunge further.
  8. you got the exchange rate wrong in aug - but gold or most non GBP currency far better But unaffordability for Brits due to low gbp will drive dubai prices down even harder
  9. I have been here 3.5 yrs The public sector is HUGE and bloated. Private sector won't employ locals, too expensive and lazy. Bloated govt is just social security for locals. Free land housing for them, subsidized electricity, water, etc. And they are breeding fast (4 wives can crack out a lot of kids) Huge wealth - huge borrowing too. Your neighbour has a big house and car - but does he own it? Or does the bank.
  10. I said right from the time Nakheel announced their 1mile high tower that it would never be built. The market was already crashing then, liquidity had dried up. They insisted at the time that it would be built, but now they just look even more stupid. I don't think Dubai will revert to a heap of sand. I do think that prices will crash spectacularly in a way that will put Britain to shame, 80-90%. All the 'luxury' blocks in the Marina will end up being cheap accommodation for asian workers at Internet and Media city and the surrounding area rather than homes for western expats. Many workers are already leaving as jobs are lost, the population they were boldy predicting would continue to rocket will start to shrink and suddenly the surplus of apartments will be laid bare and rents are already crashing. Commercial rents will crash too and eventually it will reach a point where it is cheap enough that some international companies start to think about coming back. The most stupid thing was that Dubai actually believed it could be a long term sustainable business centre and have eye-popping rents and costs at the same time. They did not any any time seem to realise that the absurd real estate costs would just price every other business out and pretty soon they'd be left with a train wreck.
  11. Dubai property has (according to HSBC) lost 23% in about 3 months. It look the UK 18 months to lose that much. Looking on the bright side, pretty soon you won't have most of your investments in Dubai property as those will be worthless and the pot plants on your office window sill will form a larger part of your net worth. Chin up boys! Sheikh Mo can still turn it around! Inshallah! Repeat after me! "Dubai is simply smashing and sooooper and everyone and his 4 wives wants to come and live here so it will NEVER crash!" I just have to add, that I feel your pain. But I still cannot help but piss my pants laughing at you losing your shirts and your skidmarked pants too. I hope this does not make me a bad person.
  12. HSBC offered me 6.1% on their AED bonds for 12 months for my business account. It is in the online banking section 'rates enquiry' if you have that. Now when you consider I can get only around 2% on USD even though the AED is pegged at 3.67 to the USD, then something smells iffy to me. That would present an obvious arbitrage opportunity to move USD into AED, but apparently one people are avoiding. It suggests to me a distinct possibility that the AED will be *devalued* within the next 12 months. I cannot explain the vastly differing interest rates any other way. So you can tie up your AED for 12 months for 6.1% - but even a 10% revaluation of the peg against the USD would leave you worse off. And I suspect that a much bigger revaluation is needed to do anything to address the UAE's problems. Personally I am keeping a balance of currencies and gold, and have nothing in AED except what I need to run my day to day business.
  13. The Dubai craze *is* over. I live in Dubai and have done for 3.5 years. The bubble is over, and the only people who argue that it is not are those holding property who missed the boat to sell. Very often the 'Dubai is special' argument comes from those who frankly have rather limited experience of anywhere civilized. Sure, Dubai is better than Delhi or Karachi. Big deal. But is it that great for Europeans and those from developed countries? For example go to Berlin or any European capital. It is clean, full of modern tasteful architecture. It is safe, relatively cheap (even if I am spending pounds). I can go out and have a beer with my meal at any restaurant at night without having to get a taxi to a hotel bar packed full of hookers. As a European, I need no residence visa. I can meet a girl, kiss her in public, take her home if I want. If I don't like the place, I can say so publicly. If it is sun I am after, then head to Greece or Portugal. If I do my paperwork and research properly, I have proper freehold ownership equal in status to any local. Dubai is not a bad place, it just is not that great, but it is now spectacularly overpriced. The latest 'Dubai won't crash' argument I heard is that most of the Marina (which appears largely empty) is in fact owned by Saudis who just visit occasionally and are super rich so don't care about prices and won't sell. Sure, Dubai's property market will be saved by Saudi sex tourists!? Come on guys. You denied it was a bubble all along. You were wrong, we were right. Dubai is not special, economic forces still apply. Dubai (thanks to the stronger dollar) is now absurdly expensive and it is no wonder the tourism sector is now on its **** too. Prices will drop to perhaps 10-20% of where they are now before it offers reasonable value again.
  14. Dubai and AD property market 'at standstill' http://www.arabianbusiness.com/535940-duba...near-standstill Off-plan prices in Jebel Ali Palm crash 40% in two months http://www.arabianbusiness.com/537326-prop...bel-ali-fall-40 DAMAC lays off 100 people, other developers following http://www.arabianbusiness.com/537423-at-l...rty-giant-damac The developers pretend this is a temporary liquidity problem stalling the market and will be over by December (!). Why lay off 100 staff then? DAMAC also closed their UK sales offices. The local currency is pegged to the dollar, which means in the last couple of months not only has Dubai been hit by the credit crunch (90% mortages are history, now 65% is the best you can get) but Brits and Europeans get 20% less for their money than 2 months back. And things will only get worse. Oil has fallen from 147 bucks to around 60 in the space of 3 months, so even the supposed bottomless pit of money is evaporating. And tourism? Maintaining even present levels will be tough with the biggest markets (UK and Europe) in deep recessions, and the plunging UK/Eur currencies makes matters even worse. Oh, and the stock market has absolutely cratered over the past couple of months by around 40%, led largely by developers and banks. Emaar (biggest developer) is down to around a 10th of its price from 3-4 years ago. The stock market is already signalling the expectation that the Dubai property market will fall sharply. The Dubai story is really no different to the US or UK story. Cheap borrowing, speculative bubble forcing up prices and a widespread belief that 'this time is different' and 'this place is different'. We saw this even 6 months ago before YoY figures for the UK turned negative. They were still talking it up and some were still saying no crash imminent when if you looked at 6 month figures you would see prices falling fast already. Of course, in Dubai we are told that property is 'in short supply' and the population is 'set to grow hugely'. Most of the population growth of the past few years has been driven by construction, and to a less extent, tourism. When that stalls, you suddenly have a ton of people having to leave and suddenly your population growth turns into an exodus. Look at the Poles leaving Britain and then imagine 90% of the UK resident population was expats from eastern Europe and you get an idea how big this is going to get. Total wipeout.
  15. I was saying that a crash would occur in the UK at some point in the medium term since late 2004. I was accused of being a doom monger and of being wrong in 2005, 2006 and 2007. The fact that a bubble has not collapsed does not mean it won't. On the contrary, it means that when it collapses it will be bigger and more spectacular. Witness the UK. If the slowdown in 2005 had not have fizzled out, an orderly decline might have ensued. The credit crisis has hit Dubai, this is now clear. The UAE central bank had to inject 50B dirhams into the banking sector. That looks rather similar to what happened in the US, UK and Europe. How so? We were assured that it could not happen in Dubai. And now the same warning lights are flashing red. Ignore them at your peril. As for the predicted population growth in Dubai, lets just analyse this. Drive around Dubai and what do you see? 95% of building is residential, high end. Only around 10% of the population in Dubai could even afford to live in these places. How much affordable accommodation is being built for general workers? Waiters, cooks, shop staff, supermarket checkout girls, hairdressers, telephonists, computer networkers, etc. Precisely zero. So Dubai is going to fill all this property under construction with rich professionals. Sure. And these rich people will be happy that there are no restaurants, that they cannot get a haircut or have their computer fixed and have to wait in a massive queue at the supermarket because the manager is the only one manning the tills. The bottom line is that you cannot expand the population of the wealthy without a corresponding rise in the population of the average workers. Since there is no property for them, then they would have to live in some of the luxury apartments now being built. But they cannot afford to even if they shared 5 people to a room (which won't be allowed). So the only alternatives are (1) many flats are rented out at much lower levels (2) salaries for lower level staff are put up from around 3-4000 AED to around 15000 AED. Then watch these new rich folks complain that a haircut costs 80 bucks instead of 15 bucks and see how long the economy survives. Let's just summarise the Dubai economy in Oct 2008: (1) HSBC reducing LTV to 60% and Tamweel and Amlak to 80%. Credit crunch is in Dubai and mortage lending is tightening fast. (2) UK and Europe in, or heading to recession. Good luck to Dubai doubling tourist numbers from these countries with a recession. (3) Oil down 40% in last 3 or 4 months and looking set to continue sliding (4) Stock markets down some 50% this year. (5) Banks short on liquidity, EIBOR rate soaring (just like LIBOR did in UK) All around Dubai you see suspended building projects. Big one right opposite my office in DIC. They sent in bulldozers, dug holes for a month and then left. No one on site and work has stopped for last 2 months. As for your arguments for continuing rises in Dubai prices, the attack on Iran one is perhaps typical of the clutching at straws. Would a massive war in France boost UK property values? The UAE might be a safe haven for Iranians, but most of the ones with money got out long ago. How safe will Europeans and Brits feel seeing warships off the coast and seeing Iranian threats to bomb the UAE for collaboration with the US and Israel. You don't get that in Worthing. An attack on Iran might spur a few more Iranians to come, but Brits, Europeans and Americans would flee in droves. The doom mongers were right about the US, UK and Europe. They were just a little out on the timing. But now the signs are already there that Dubai is following the same script. Arguing that because it hasn't happened means it won't is juvenile and absurd, especially considering that the boom mongers in the US and UK used exactly the same defence. They are not anymore. Dubai's economy is not well diversified and I think will be crippled far more heavily due to its reliance on real estate and oil money, both of which are in deep trouble for the next few years. Unlike other countries, most Dubai workers are expats - if they cannot get a job, they will leave. So the population would fall sharply in a recession.
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