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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by frozen_out

  1. Mentioned this point a number of times, but it's worth reiterating. It's an accepted fact that by the end of the soviet union the government had told so many lies so often and were so insulated from life as led by the average person they genuinely didn't know what general life was like in the USSR. We are in the same situation now. The government genuinely has no idea.
  2. Yes. Like our beloved prince William with his Desmond in art history from St. Andrews.
  3. It's not a question of what one would like to happen. It's a question of what can happen, and in this insane fantasy of an economy, with any notion of 'fundamentals' long since consigned to the loony bin of history anything can happen. Are you happy with your risk profile Venger, you're sounding a little nervous.
  4. Indeed. Waiting is just as risky as not waiting. If I'd sat it out completely from 2005-2015 I'd have spent roughly 80-100k in rent. I'd need a hell of a HPC to make that worthwhile.
  5. I first posted this on HPC probably almost 10 years ago. The price of anything is a reflection of the energy required to produce it, and in this sense labour is simply another energy input. It's no surprise that the golden age of the west (probably early 60s to late 80s) corresponds to us having the biggest share of the energy pie.
  6. The number of people on HPC who claim to be super smart high earners yet called the house price situation completely wrongly is astonishing (in any poll no one on HPC earns less than 40k, it's the law). It brings to mind the great Kurt Vonnegut quote: 'Beware the man who spends his whole life learning and finds himself no wiser than before, he is full of murderous resentment for those who came about their ignorance the easy way'
  7. You're taking a risk Venger. You're as much in denial as the most ardent HPI devotee.
  8. Good post. IMHO there is a blind spot on HPC regarding the value of renting and keeping cash in the bank. In the long run we're all losing.
  9. The IP doesn't belong to the state, but the state defends it. A patent is nothing more than a contract between the state and the assignee... A 20 year monopoly granted in return for disclosure.
  10. At some point something will happen. Count back X years and call that a cycle. If nothing happened X years ago count back X*n years and call it a supercycle. When that fails count back X*n*m and call it a megacycle.
  11. There is a place for IO. But it should be restricted to premium buyers with alternative investment plans. If (big if) you can invest the capital in a higher yielding asset than houses then it's the right product. The Wilsons were just idiots who got lucky. Statistical anomolies.
  12. I must be thick, because I just don't get this. Why would you need a loan to top up a PhD stipend? Mine was 18k/year tax free. Plus no council tax + tax credit because it wasn't counted as income for tax credits purposes and I had a young son at the time.
  13. This doesn't make any sense as a proposal. Many PhDs are sponsored by industry (often with a little sweetener thrown in by the university). What happens to that money if the stipend and fees are only lent to the student?The government could remove its subsidy from particular postgrad courses, but where does that get them? Industry will be asked to take up the slack and the last time they did that (FEC for postdocs) industry just stopped sponsoring postdocs.
  14. Like I said, they're gambling. They just don't know it.
  15. Harsh. BTL is seen as a one way bet, they're lumping on. If they turn out to be wrong they'll be ruined financially. If they turn out to be right however...
  16. That is an archetypal council house. Having lived my early life pretty much on a tour of the council estates of the city I grew up in I can spot one a mile off. My guess is she or he inherited the tennancy when his/her parent/parents died/moved on.
  17. They're also very hierarchical and formal. Having lived there their behaviour throughout this whole debacle is utterly unsurprising.
  18. Same here. I've never met a German who listened. Nice people socially, but they always know best.
  19. You know what, I'm really glad i've worked my way into your thinking so deeply. This must be the 5th thread I've opened where you've referenced me. We don't need a trebling for me to be right. We simply need to avoid a 30% nominal fall over a short number of years. Which we will.
  20. Its probably worth noting at this juncture that Greece did fiddle their books for access to the Eurozone. There's a good paper analysing various European accounts using Benford's law (years since I read it, a quick google should turn it up) and Greece were a serious outlier. What you sow you reap. A banal cliche, no doubt, but very true.
  21. In other news Colonel Sanders says 'Buy my chicken'
  22. If they're concerned about BTs monopoly of the infrastructure why don't they invest in their own??? Oh yeah, it costs a frigging fortune to lay and maintain. The best outcome for the consumer would be ofcom forcing Virgin to open up the cable network. IMO this is what Sky really want and it would be a massive, massive game changer in UK broadband.
  23. Venger's banking on 50% nominal falls overnight. I'm with you, a long slow grind over a decade or two is much more likely.
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