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House Price Crash Forum

frozen_out

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Everything posted by frozen_out

  1. Nope, still not it. Yeah, that's what I said. It will bite some? How? under what circumstances? You're completely and utterly incoherent.
  2. BTW... You're misquoting/misrepresenting again. I never claimed a double lock on house prices.
  3. Oh, everything's OK then. My house price might drop, but many people's equity can handle it and the banks can handle it, and the wider economy can handle it so there'll be no big recession/lay-offs/associated repos.All that will happen is you get a house cheaper than you do today and you might come out marginally ahead after renting for many years. I think we can all sleep soundly tonight, homeowners, mortgagees and renters alike, can't we?
  4. Have you ever heard of 2008? You know...that year when we were on the cusp of a full-on reset to zero and tanks on the streets. Yeah, that one. That's what I'm talking about. What's it called now? Oh yeah, reality. House prices aren't the main course, they're a mere side dish.
  5. Settled defaults are pretty much ignored after 12 months. It was an extraordinarily bad piece of timing. Months earlier or months later and it wouldn't have mattered. Even still, 90% crash with no wider economic implications is enough to make me think about changing the assert class of my savings.
  6. I don't have a big mortgage. It currently stands at the princely sum of 2.6x my salary, and my equity is building every day. Someone else was musing on debt being inflated away and subsequent high interest rates. I merely pointed out that if that is going to be the case over a relatively short timescale the fill your boots with a sub 3% 10 year fix. You misquote and quote out of context all the time. The graph on the front page shows a few things: 1. The long term trend in house prices is meaningless, at any moment in time you're winning or losing so its best not to worry about it. 2. Homeowners spend more time winning than losing 3. Anyone who has been sat out for any significant portion of the last 15 years now needs a collapse that will take the rest of the economy with it to get ahead Refute that all you like, but the numbers back it up. And if the collapse doesn't take the rest of the economy with it then the homeowners/mortgaged win again. It's a double lock.
  7. What affected credit history? You're expecting no wider economic impact remember??? Why would my credit history be affected? In your scenario I could buy properties with an unsecured loan!!!
  8. You're not making any sense. At all. Just a load of random out of context quotes. And forgetting that reality, right now, is still on my side. If houses do fall 90% with no wider economic implications (this is what you're expecting, isn't it?) Unless it's legislated against I'll buy 10.
  9. At the risk of going way off topic, whatever happened to surestart? Does it still exist??I always thought it was a bit like book start. Based on the premise that kids with access to lots of books at home do better, let's give all kids some books. Missing the point pretty much entirely.
  10. 1. You used the word 'uncrashable' with respect to yarm implying that was my view. That's not something I would ever say2. You're implying I'm surprised that the steelworks are closing. I'm not. 3. I have no view as to whether debt will be inflated away. That was a response to someone expecting price falls against a back-drop of higher interest rates I.e. an inflationary environment. You've taken a one way bet Venger. I'm hedged. Probably not sufficiently for all circumstances, but there we go. This is off the topic really. Steel works closing will not affect house prices locally short term. Either in Redcar or Yarm. It's just another few mill. On the welfare budget. A piss in the ocean really.
  11. Based on the steelworks closing, or long term? I don't know how much granularity you can get on house prices, but I'd be very, very surprised if house prices in Yarm and Ingleby fell faster than anywhere else over the next year.
  12. Venger, has anyone ever told you you're a *****, and a boring one at that?You either don't understand my arguments or are wilfully misrepresenting them. I'd start banging on about how anyone sat out since 2003 pretty much needs a reset to zero to get ahead, but it's well off topic. As for how steel in Redcar affects prices in Yarm, didn't make a difference last time the steel works closed and it probably won't this time.
  13. If manufacturing was so easy we wouldn't be still making progress hundreds of years after the industrial revolution started. It's a bit like a jigsaw in that you've got to know how it all fits together, no industry is an island each one fits in with other industries. As a facile example take shipbuilding, relies on welders. No shipbuilding, no demand for welders therefore no welders. What happens next time you want to build a ship? You import someone to teach guys how to weld. What if the people with the skills don't want to dilute the knowledge pool? We have a factory in Germany that requires tremendously intricate machined parts. We built a replica factory in China and trained a Chinese workshop to make the necessary parts for the machines. Took us a few hundred years to work out and we gave it away over a few hundred hours. lets hope the Chinese are as generous with their developments.
  14. On a side-point the Chinese really do have a lot to answer for here. They have installed massive over-capacity in pretty much all industries and now it's impossible for anyone to really make any money on anything.
  15. We'll have to agree to disagree. In a similar way to labour being a relatively small cost of operation, the training of an individual is a relatively small cog in the manufacturing wheel. It's more about behaviour on an organisational level.
  16. He is right. Manufacturing can't just be switched on and off. On an organisational level it genuinely is a case of not what you do, but how you do it and that takes time to learn. That's our only edge over the emerging economies right now, our engineering and manufacturing heritage. It will be gone in a generation though.
  17. I can't understand why it has to be like this though. My estimation (not based on much admittedly) is that for a foreign manufacturer the cost base in the North East of England won't be too far in excess of India/China.
  18. Neville should consider why Manchester United pay absolutely top dollar in transfer fees and wages yet are consistently outclassed by the best sides on the continent. Here's a hint Gary - it's not a problem with the North East.
  19. Have to say I live and work in the region and it's really not as depressing as you're making out. If you have a reasonably well paying job in the area (i'm talking average salary type wages)it's almost certainly the best place in the country to live. I moved to yarm about a decade ago and have never looked back, great place to bring my kids up.
  20. Can't see this going through without significant divestment from both businesses. I think it's Sab they really want, so it wouldn't surprise me to see the 'miller' part divested straight away. It would recoup some investment straight away too.
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