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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by frozen_out

  1. Amazon manages its finances very well to make no profit. Look at the profit line in the chart. It's absolutely steady, no peaks and troughs. I was talking to a guy from Seatttle last week, forget silicon valley - MS and Amazon are spending a lot of money and making Seattle unbearably expensive for most. He was also complaining that they flood the green card system, making it almost impossible for anyone else in the area to attract overseas talent. Amazon spent $3bn last year on technology investment. The stakes are much larger than online retail - Amazon, MS and google are vying to own the entire internet.
  2. Good list. I'm going to try this for 2017. Current end of 2017 HPI 6.00% 2% FTSE 7000 6300 GBP 1.25 1.4 Gold 1130 1500 gDP 2.20% 2 CPI 1.2 2.5 Base rate 0.25 0.25 Brent 54 80 The HPC will gain strength into the new year, the $ will lose some purchasing power, crude and gold will rise as a result. £ will continue to be weak relative to rest of the world fuelling some domestic inflation but the BOE will still stand idly by and do nothing.
  3. I haven't read the whole thread, but as from what I can see locally the crash is on. 5 houses for sale on my estate right now. I've been here almost 10 years and that's never happened - everything has always gone under offer at the asking price within a couple of weeks.
  4. Nowhere is immune, house prices are nuts. Full stop. But... You can make it work, and with each passing year of no HPC and low interest rates the maths stacks, particularly in North Yorks. Another mate of mine just paid 360k for 36m2 in London. Rather him than me.
  5. Not necessarily. I've always taken the Max term and overpaid. If you take a 15 year mortgage you're screwed if you hit trouble with your income. If you take a 30 year mortgage and pay it like it's a 15 year term if you hit trouble you've got some breathing space.
  6. Erroneous assumption in the OP that everyone is a first time buyer.
  7. Not necessarily. The price of oil is the one to watch for. There's no reason why it can't increase in all currencies.
  8. I've got a defined benefit pension, only average salary mind, not final salary - but still useful. It's also close to being in surplus. When I joined it was non-contributory for the employee (8 yrs ago), but after the financial crisis it went into deficit so we now have to contribute at 3%. personally I think the company missed a trick when they introduced contributions and they should have gone all the way up to the industry average of 6% over a period of a few years (e.g increased contributions by 1.2% a year for 5 years) and absolutely secured the future of the scheme. I've also got a DC pension that's matched up to 3% of salary, to which I contribute 3%.
  9. Markets are amoral, they're not out to screw you. People buying houses aren't thinking about outbidding you, they're only thinking about themselves and there's nothing fundamentally wrong with that. It's not personal - they're just doing what they think they need to do, rightly or wrongly. As such if their plans don't work out they are no more or less deserving of sympathy than anyone else. When the Redcar steelworks closed those who lost their jobs deserved some sympathy IMO, renter or BTLer. Great post. I had many years of struggling to cope. All the same issues as mentioned in this thread - seeing people with barely a pot to piss in driving around in brand new leased Range Rovers, part-time tax-credit rapists with BTLs, couldn't they see the madness? Couldn't they see that they were fundamentally wrong on so many levels? My dad wondering why I was struggling to make much progress despite having a decent enough job, whilst my sister and her husband do menial jobs yet live a life of riley (clue:she bought in 1997, the year I went to university). Awful, hurtful, years. Then the crash happened, finally i was going to be vindicated. The great crash, resulting in the great 10 year depression.Chickens coming home to roost for all those people who made so many bad decisions. What happened? Nothing. A 3 year blip followed by normal service. So what did I learn? 1. There is only one reality: yours. If it works for you it works for you. If it works for them it works for them. Good luck to them. Respect their decisions, respect their analysis and if they're wrong, they're wrong, if they're right, they're right. That's it. 2. Sitting out the game is as much of a risk as taking part (this is actually the number one thing I missed from 2003-2008). If the economy is as ******ed as I think it is house price crash to the extent we talk (talked?) about can not happen in isolation. The likelihood is we're all toast. 3. There are no fundamentals: Anyone who appeals to 'fundamentals' when making an argument has no understanding of history. There is a constant state of flux, one economic system is replaced with another, fair value is not a constant. Just because we have a bubble, that doesn't mean that 3x salary is still a good rule of thumb for a house price 4. It IS different this time. You know how different 2016 is from 1997 in all kinds of ways? And how different 1997 was from 1977 in all kinds of ways? That's it. But the main place that it's different is that technology is allowing the system to increase in complexity exponentially. In the great crash of the 20s the technology wasn't available to respond to a crashing market. Now the entire global trading system could be stopped in an instant whilst politicians get together and decide how they're going to catch a falling knife. Who to sacrifice, who to save and how. It's not right. But it's reality. 5.The economy is an insane fantasy. And like all fantasies the person whose fantasy it is can make it up as they go along for as long as they like.
  10. You own the casino, so why are you here taking part in a self referential HPC circle jerk instead of celebrating and just living your life? Not trolling, it's a serious question. I'm doing the same thing but I can't understand why.What is your deep rooted, almost sub-conscious purpose for being on this particular forum? My guess is it's not because you feel like a winner.
  11. But the world keeps on spinning and people keep on living in their nice houses , going in nive holidays with their nice families and driving their nice cars. Some kind of ******ed.Maybe they'll gamble and lose, maybe they'll gamble and see it out long enough to win. They're gambling, no doubt. But you have to understand that HPC is simply a collection of folk on the other side of the bet. All the talk about fundamentals and 'it's not different this time' is just piss and wind until it's not.
  12. Loving golf at the minute. Me and a couple of mates take a flyer from work on a Friday and spend 2 hours laughing at each other hacking our way around 9 holes in 75 shots. Never talk about work once, which is unusual for us. I'm sure I read that golf courses occupy about 7% of land nationally, seemed like a lot but not infeasible. And it is in decline as a sport. I see it as a reflection of the trend towards people being cash rich and time poor. Membership at a decent enough club will set you back £60-80/month. Compare that to boozing and the gym and it's not outrageous. Unfortunately there aren't many people who like the idea of spending 5 hours of their saturday and a couple of hours midweek playing and practicing.
  13. Exactly. In this day and age being called a 'proud Christian would be enough to get you marked down as a mental nutjob. Not so with islam though.
  14. I've already mentioned this on numerous threads - an extraordinary investment cycle resulted in massive demand for raw materials to increase capacity for the same materials. Now that the investment cycle has ended you have both overcapacity and reduced demand making everything pretty much valueless. Overabundance IS the problem, as to keep the plates spinning you have to churn out volume at wafer thin margins or even at a loss. The malinvestment of the last decade, particularly in China will take decades to work through the economy. The problem isn't in scarcity, it's in working out how to get people to be able to afford all the things we can make when those things are essentially valueless (note that this does not mean worthless). If there's no value in the goods there's no value to transfer to the people who either manufacture them or service the people who manufacture them.
  15. Indeed it was. So this is the issue: In an extraordinary cycle of investment the Chinese sent demand to the moon by building capacity to meet said demand. What could go wrong?
  16. This. Capacity has crushed the value. Rebalancing is the right path, but it will take a long time.
  17. AFAICS there is no counter to this. Medicine is almost a closed shop. Let's open it up and see where we are in 20 years.
  18. Public sympathy is the only commodity that matters in public sector strikes. If nobody cares about your 'battle' you've already lost. Same as the teachers and police.
  19. The last lot that tried got mullered by the Tories in the 70s/80s. No one has sympathy with strikers anymore, life's just too hard for most to have any sympathy with what they see as the entitled public sector. It was the same with the police, same with teachers, now it's the same with doctors. What I don't understand is why they don't just work to rule. It would be far more effective than threatening to strike. Just work exactly your contracted hours for your contracted salary. No overtime, no extra work, no work at home nothing. Then we'll see if the NHS starts to really collapse when doctor's don't do 96 hours a week, and if it does THEN you'll get the public sympathy. Why skip straight to the strike?
  20. Hmmm... Why don't we just train more doctors? To me the real issue is that a subject that's not outrageously difficult is the type of closed shop the rest of the world saw the back of in the 70s. Maybe the real way to 'save' the NHS is to increase the number of doctors being trained tenfold and drive doctors' wages down to the level of a teacher's. Edit: should have read the whole thread before responding
  21. China (which is where most of the excess production capacity is)doesn't really care too much about taking a loss. So I guess it could take years. Out of the increase in ships it would be interesting to see the proportion accounted for by Chinese lines. They could use their usual strategy of subsidising their own lines until the rest of the world's shipping ceases to exist, at which point the price will rebound with them as the only player.
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