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Killer Bunny

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Everything posted by Killer Bunny

  1. If for up to a couple of years - CASH Dear boy! Cash is king. As it happens the FTSE will go to 5300 (give or take) and the S&P to 1300 (got) but that's over the next few months. Don't bother - the hassle is too much. Cash! Then watch the equity markets, bond markets and housing markets crash and burn...
  2. Well. let's see now... Commodities are through the roof RPI is already 3.3% utilities are going up city bonuses will be back in January pushing wage growth slightly With Yuan / Jen etc rising our costs are rising etc Any more as to why MPC will raise rates 2 or 3 times further?
  3. I'm changing my guesses already due to Halifax' Martin AList BSer London -9.0% England & Wales -5.5% This is for 2005 if I understand the rules of the game.
  4. 9 in Broxbourne, Herts EN10 We'll see how long they last
  5. THIS IS A MAILER I RECIEVED FROM A TOP INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT HOUSE THIS WEEK Dear Sir/Madam, As you may have seen there has been quite a lot of press coverage recently on UK mid cap fund managers' views on house builders. The reason for this is that house builders represent around 15% of the FTSE 250 Index. Allianz Dresdner UK Mid Cap Fund Manager Trevor Green, however, has avoided significant investments in the UK house building sector which has lead to his outperformance year to date. It's also worth noting Trevor Green's impressive track record since he started managing the UK Mid Cap Fund: UK Mid Cap Fund Performance (as at 26/11/04) quartile 1 mth 1ST 3 mths 1ST 6 mths 1ST 1 yr 1ST 2 yrs 1ST Since Trevor Green joined in April 2002 1ST Please see below comments from Trevor explaining his stance on house builders. Yours sincerely, "Current data is now pointing clearly to a cooling down in the housing market. In fact the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) published a survey on 16th November which stated that the housing market is weakening and that house prices falls are spreading across the country."2 "History suggests that it typically takes a year for rising interest rates to affect the housing market. This time it is no different, with rates first rising in November 2003." "In November, the first sell side house building analyst broke from the consensus and reduced earnings expectations3 for the sector by 14% for 2005 and 20% for 2006 on the conservative assumption that volumes and prices reduce by just 3% in 2005. This was a stark reminder of how cyclical this sector can be." "Although the outlook is for interest rates to peak soon and possibly fall next year, house owners are only beginning to be hit by higher rates as the typical two-year fixed-rate mortgage expires. So an increasing number of house owners will be paying more over the coming months, irrespective of the direction of interest rates. The effect of this can be seen with the significant fall in mortgage approvals from July this year." "Trevor explains that the following issues are behind his decision: "Corporate activity is often cited as a reason to buy a FTSE 250 house builder. However, there hasn't been a takeover in the mid cap part of the market for over a year. This lack of activity - despite takeovers in other sectors - points towards the fact that the larger house builders do not see compelling valuations in their smaller competitors' share prices at the moment." "Whilst I agree with the longer term demand and supply imbalances underlying the UK housing market - as highlighted by Kate Barker's review earlier this year4 - this is a longer term factor. The market is focused on the shorter term issues." "The only house builder I own is Taylor Woodrow, for two reasons: firstly, on valuation grounds and secondly, the company has significant exposure to the US house building sector which is currently being re-rated in line with US investors' confidence in their own housing market, with recent data still very reassuring."5 "In conclusion, I remain nervous of the sector in general at the moment. However, I will continue to watch the data closely and, in particular, the actions of the house building companies themselves, to determine when to consider adding to my single holding in the UK Mid Cap Fund." 1 Source: Standard and Poor's as at 26/11/04. Mid to mid, basic rate tax. 2 Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors press release 'Housing market weakens', 16th November 2004. 3 Source: ABN AMRO, 10th November 2004. 4 Source: Barker Review of Housing Supply, HM Treasury, 2004. 5 Source: October 2004 US Housing statistics. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For Professional Advisers only. This information is for the sole use of the addressee who it is believed is a market counterparty or an intermediate investor as defined by the Financial Services Authority and persons of any other description should not rely upon it. Issued by Allianz Dresdner Funds Ltd. Authorised & regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Member of the Investment Management Association. Member of the Allianz Dresdner Asset Management Marketing Group. Registered office: 1st Floor, 155 Bishopsgate, London, EC2M 3AD. Registered number 1963362. Registered in England. Past performance is no guide to the future. The value of shares and the income from them can fall as well as rise as a result of market and currency fluctuations and you may not get back as much as you originally invested. For our mutual protection, telephone calls are recorded and may be used for quality control and training purposes, however, Allianz Dresdner Asset Management reserves the right to use such recordings in the event of a dispute. We are contacting you only on the basis that we believe our products are similar to those you provide to your clients, to unsubscribe from future mailouts please click here.
  6. To all bulls out there - be serious! On what earthly basis is this worth £170k. Sure, its St Albans, 20 mins to City but for goodness sake. That's about 7 times average earnings - give us a break
  7. My guess for E&W is -2.50% For London -6.50% Good idea!
  8. John Maynard Keynes said - The market can stay illogical longer than you have resources. The bubble lasted probably 2 years longer then it 'ought to have' if conventional WISDOM took precedence. Of course, in any market which is imperfect, emotion takes over from logic - south sea, tulips, railways, radio, dot.coms, houses. Time is on our side and just keep your cash in a deposit account and watch the opportunity profit rise and rise every few months i.e. you could have bought and made ever rising losses. Anyway, if you are renting it doesn't stop you from investing in a house. WHAT DID YOU JUST SAY? That's right. Just save heavily in a deposit account at say 5% gross and treat it not as a savings account but as chipping-away-at-the-capital of a future house account. Or as a future mortgage-reduction account. Do not asume you can do nothing about house ownership just because of the mere technicality that you do not have a whale of a mortgage.
  9. When a pop star in the Sunday Times, recently, said he invested in property because you can't go wrong with bricks and mortar, it like being in the back of a London cab. As to when - who knows but my guess is 2006/07.
  10. Which means that not only will those on annual review mortgages receive a huge rise in costs this month to last through 2005 and that those who took out v low rate 2 and 3 yr fixes in 2002 and 2003 will get a shock next year BUT ALSO there will be more shocks going into 2006. THIS IS DYNAMITE!
  11. I think it's fair to say your analytical skills are a bit rusty. OK. Let's go back to surveys' methodologies: Nationwide, Halifax - based on houses bought with a mortgage or remortgaged. At the end of the process i.e. 3-6 months after a viewer offers. (It takes a long time to get the surveyor out, sort out the lawyer and finances etc, obtain the mortgage offer, agree exchange date then of course completion. ODPM and Land Registry - all houses but far too out of date. These surveys are months behind the true current state. Ask any EA in London! Hometrack, Rightmove - surveys of EAs (uh oh!) but absolutely current. Also, based on asking prices and agreed sale prices for all houses - with or without mortgage. Much better. 25% of properties are paid for cash! Somehow I doubt Jonny professional (not for long!) BTLer is going to pay huge extra amounts for any property when he's got so many available. However, the unthinking Billy Igottagetthisone who needs a mortgage has continued to pay over the odds. Hometrack forecasts nil growth for E&W 05 and -5% in London 05. Which means its likely to be -10% in London as Hometrack is paid for by ... EAs. 1 November saw mortgage regulation for the first time. Thus the dodgy umpteen times earnings loans will no longer be available. This will reflect in volume figures in a month or two's time and the drop in volume of mortgages due to hundreds of mortgage brokers leaving the industry will be significant. Finally, there are huge numbers of unthinking sellers who have yet to acclimatise and reduce their prices from the summer high. When they see consistent falls they will start to get edgy, then they'll be anxious... then - oh it will be such fun! - they will panic.
  12. And mannerly! What next - a free 8 times mortgage with my cornflakes?
  13. I have indeed and what a fine independent bunch you all appear - just my kind of people!
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