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Tiger Woods?

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Everything posted by Tiger Woods?

  1. To the quote above, I would add the following from 2003: The fellow was never a skeptic but has always been a self aggrandizer.
  2. Picking over the garbage heaps of the factory owners in ragged shorts in December.
  3. Makes me laugh. When I first landed in the UK (1992) M&S would take neither a debit nor a credit card. At the time I thought it was completely antediluvian...now I'm not so sure things were worse before the flood of plastic and easy credit.
  4. AEA is a slightly different kettle of fish. They are basically a consultancy working on the assumption that any warm body with a degree will do. They are very good at getting rid of older, more experienced (i.e. expensive) consultants, and replacing them with younger (i.e. cheaper) workers. Initially great for the bottom line, but not so good when one is trying to win tenders. Management was pretty hopeless too. Basically it is an ex-government organization that many years after privatization still maintains some of the worst aspects of the public service. BT's research labs were the same when I worked in them. The pension scheme problem just means they are dying quicker than they would without it.
  5. +1 - you need to add house prices too high to question 4. I could buy, but refuse to due to house prices be far from the long term equilibrium price/earnings and price/rental ratios. You also need to raise the top budget for first time buyers. You can't get a bedsit in London/the south east for 180k (perhaps I am exaggerating, but not by much.)
  6. How is he planning to form a coalition with Labour, when the Lib Dems are unlikely to have any seats?
  7. This isn't necessary. They have "robots" do the signing in the US. You don't even have to have taken out a mortgage for a robo-signed one to exist on your property.
  8. Are you sure you were being sarcastic and not, instead, being inadvertently insightful? I wouldn't want to be owed anything long term by the government of the UK.
  9. O'rly? How many botched IT system contracts have there been, and what happened to the large corporations that failed to deliver them?
  10. Moreover, there is nothing an LA likes more than to be able to hit a new tenant (and the LL) with bloated credit check fees, new contract fees, etc. etc. Remember, the LA's and LL's interests are not fully aligned.
  11. That was a couple of years ago. Almost too late now.
  12. Ooh! With pork sausages, very posh! When it all goes tits up, can I come and live in your bunker? I'll bring the gas masks.
  13. In 2005 I took out a £25,000 loan, over the internet @5.6%, approved almost instantly. Completely and utterly bonkers. It was obvious at that point that the world had gone mad.
  14. This all assumes the model is correct. We have a good understanding of fluid and gas dynamics, so those parts of climate models are likely ot be very good. Other variables, such as certain aspects of cloud formation, not so good. If the model is wrong, it doesn't matter how many times you change the parameters you think are important, if the model is wrong the output will be wrong. At best, this means reality might be at the extreme range of a confidence interval, at worst you might be producing complete garbage.
  15. +100 22 pages of thread before we finally get some sense.
  16. What I find puzzling is that you have a trouble with the quoted section - it makes perfect sense. We know from "hide the decline" that proxies and instrumental records don't always match particularly well. Apriori I suspect that temperature reconstruction from numerous proxies will lead to less extreme deviations from the baseline than the instrumental record, so I find the idea of removing the instrumental record quite defensible and less likely to mislead than including it. I also suspect the current "version" of the instrumental record of the latter half of the 20th century isn't all it is cracked up to be. Too many adjustments that all seem to be in the same direction. Temperatures have undoubtedly risen over the past 100 years, but whether by 0.8 or 0.4 degrees I have no idea.
  17. I'm a former scientist who "lived" the scientific method for 8 years post Ph.D. at a top department in a world class university. It is precisely for this reason I am prone to skepticism about the pronouncements of AGW. As a "born scientist", I found the whole experience of professional sciencedeeply depressing...from the sub-par quality of the vast majority of work, especially pertaining to complex systems (much of it getting published provided it didn't challenege the status quo, cf. the recent paper by Gergis et al that would have made it into the canon had it not been for third-party review by skeptics), pressure to secure funding, the nasty politics, the group think, intellectual theft, abuse of power etc. etc. The climate gate e-mails outlined practises that were very, very familiar to me. This isn't the case in all areas of science. Some of my physicist friends seem to work in a reasonably positive environment, the trouble seems to arise where complex systems are involved: medicine, biology and, I suspect, climate science.
  18. If you rely solely on direct forcings. Iirc, the argument is that the sun has a major effect by affecting the earth's magnetic field and hence the number of cosmic rays getting through, the collisions of these with molecules form seeds for cloud formation which affect the earth's albedo etc.
  19. You ignore the fact that the paper (Gergis et al) that the graph came from was pulled from publication post "peer review" and post media blitz (in Australia) after the skeptic community pointed out that, contrary to the authors' claims, the analysis made the same hockey stick inducing mistakes made by Mann in his (in)famous graph. The uptick in this graph is an artifact of poor statistical methodology and a lack of intuitive understanding of conditional probability. When you see a combined time series with this shape in climate science you should be automatically suspicious that the proxy selection has been done incorrectly.
  20. Good idea. Either remove all possibilities of "the little man" preserving wealth (and a roof over their head if they have to move for some reason) from government/bank created inflation or drive a boom in capital asset prices by making them a tax shelter. Pure genius. Second homes and investment properties are not exempt from capital gains tax, there are few good reasons for making first homes liable for capital gains. The problem needs to be controlled at the source. What is needed is sensible controls on lending and freeing up of planning approval. Prices would plummet very quickly as HPI is actually land price inflation.
  21. My understanding is that French intransigence over the reparations were a major cause of the Weimar hyperinflation in the early 1920s, and it was this that caused the initial strengthening of the more radical parties in Germany. The British wanted to be lenient, the French did not.
  22. What a vile clueless woman she is... No wonder she is a human rights barrister.
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