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Tiger Woods?

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  1. Any time spent trading in the market reveals that the EMH is complete bunkum, except in the broadest possible sense. For example, in the case of one company I had shares in, the register date for a rights issue passed and the share price did not move an inch. Regardless of the effect the rights issue on the viability of the company, the shares should have had a saltation in price from the register day to the next, as the shares were diluted. This did not occur, though the information was available in an RNS message and to anyone who had been following the company. So, I took out a huge short on the position early on the morning after the rights issue, and waited and waited and waited...after about 4 days I closed the short for the spread loss thinking I was going mad. The individual rights notifications didn't appear on CREST until another 4 days later, at which point the share price adjusted within a few minutes to its theoretically correct value as predicted by EMH, which is should have done a week before. My theory is that no one other than me (and insiders I suppose who couldn't trade) had taken the implication of the information in, until it was staring them in the face. So, there was an 8 day window in which the market price for a share was 30% overpriced, moreover people were trading this share at the overpriced value in non-trivial volumes.
  2. The problem is that if enough people believe in TA, as they seem to do in currency markets, then fib levels/retracements etc. become self fulfilling prophesies. My only belief in fib levels etc. is that others believe in them, and you ignore them at your cost (as I quickly learnt trading currency). Went to a conference quite a few years ago where people were modelling the behaviour of markets as populations of players. What popped up regularly was that if a sizeable group of players had beliefs about resistance levels etc, they became resistance levels etc. It may be astrology, but it is dangerous to go against the crowd no matter how nuts they may be - the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  3. Umm, that isn't a suit. That is a uniform that marks you out as a prole, a third rate real estate agent, or a 17 year old about to appear in court. A proper SUIT, that makes you look professional/better than you really are etc, costs about an ounce of gold.
  4. Things must be grim if you'd willing go back to a good chance of being blown up by a mobile phone. Stay safe.
  5. I must admit that this interview and his interview with Ron Paul gave me new respect for the guy. The interviewer on this show really looked uncomfortable with some of the things he said; I wonder if there were producers shouting in here ear "get him off, get him off". It also makes me re-evaluate his in the street rant from the last half of 2007 (August?).
  6. Join the club. Seems to have bounced off the 38.2% fib retracement from 230 down to 204 (214.2) - let's hope it doesn't go any higher, or my position will be in trouble :angry:
  7. The following paragraph from Bullion Vault's official terms and conditions is the one I was quoting: You have a right of withdrawal of your gold from BullionVault, but you acknowledge BullionVault is not designed primarily as a service for those who wish to take physical possession of bullion. Your wish to withdraw bullion will be accommodated only in the form of whole numbers of appropriate bars of varying sizes and, of generally accepted bullion coins, to be selected at BullionVault's discretion. The withdrawal fee for good delivery bars will be not more than 2.5% of value. The withdrawal fee for other gold will be not more than 7.5% of value. To make physical withdrawals you will be required to provide reliable forms of identification and may in addition be required to indemnify BullionVault against identity fraud through the purchase of appropriate insurance. Your understand that you cannot claim withdrawal directly from ViaMat. Your right to withdrawal is to be effected through BullionVault who have the means and responsibility for identifying you reliably. Depending upon the quantity withdrawn you may be required to identify a local bank or equivalent institution to which your gold can be delivered. Upon withdrawing bullion you accept that you may lose anonymity where these transactions are monitored by appropriate authorities. Upon withdrawing bullion you accept that you may become liable to taxes which you would otherwise not become liable to, and you permit BullionVault to deduct those taxes appropriately.
  8. Even if you had 400 oz you wouldn't want to take possession as a bar except in dire circumstances, as this would break the chain of trust. BV state on their site that in dire circumstances people will be able to have smaller than 400oz bars delivered. They will charge percentage fee (as is normal - even perth mint do this) and you will be able to get the gold in a mixture of bars and coins of their choice.
  9. I would gladly pay an extra penny on income tax to imprison all those who fraudulently obtained mortgages. Then again, with negative equity, perhaps it would be better to let them stay at home.
  10. A nice suit, good presentation, and a being articulate with a posh (or east end) accent are generally a flashing warning signal in my experience - like red, yellow and black markings on noxious slugs.
  11. Maybe I am paranoid too, but this was my initial thought. I do find it hard to believe that someone can hide 3.5 billion euros - but perhaps I am being naive (I wish I could hide 3.5 billion from my company)... Having said that, market conditions have been such that someone playing loosely/without proper oversight probably could have hung themselves rather easily over the past 12 months. Wasn't it the Asian crisis that did Leeson and Barings in?
  12. It was very interesting to note that the GBP/JPY xrate plummeted once Soros started speaking on Radio 4. Regained quick enough, but interesting to observe.
  13. Yes there is. Generally they buy or sell the underlying in the market as appropriate. This is why they have minimum and maximum sizes. Sometimes if there isn't much liquidity in the market you won't be able to place a bet for the volume you require. They make their money on selling guaranteed stops and on the spreads they add...which are not inconsiderable. Moreover, you can only bet money in your account (with a guaranteed stop account) or you have to be on call and prove you have the cash to be able to make a margin call when they call you on the phone. If you can't they close you out.
  14. Some unfortunate sod who bet the wrong way. I believe that in most markets Ig-Index hedges your bets - you bet on a share going up, they buy the shares in the market and charge you a spread. The advantage and disadvantage is that you can work on margin and hence leverage your bet. As for the FTSE and other indices, I do not know exactly how they hedge their offerings.
  15. Was lucky this morning. Placed a spread bet on the ftse last night after seeing what happened in Asia. £20 a point. Came out of the shower at 8.03, saw I was up 3k and sold dead quick (though not quick enough as it dropped to £2.5k whilst IG Index f*&^ed around with getting me a close window). Glad I sold when I did...a little bit later and I would have lost a lot of dosh. One thing that did come out of this was that Ig-Index's servers are just not cut out to handle a crises (no surprise there I suppose...). I lost at least £3k of potential profit this morning because I couldn't get trading screens open. Pretty dark over that.
  16. I would have thought most men would "do" that voluntarily... [Edit] Damn you Mad Rapper - beat me to it!
  17. I would concur that she should not sign. Having said that, generally there is a test of reasonableness with respect to contract terms and they can be declared invalid, at least in b2b and in b2c contracts for the provision of goods and services. The Unfair Contract Terms Act 1977 does not apply to tenancy and licensee agreements but that the Unfair Terms in Consumer Contracts Regulation 1999 does. MrShed is correct though in stating that your GF would probably not be a tenant. She would probably be a licensee rather than a tenant if the LL is not excluded from her room/they share a living room etc. In this case the LL doesn't even have to give 28 days notice to your GF if she wants her to move out. I have no clue as to how the UTCC would apply in this case as there is a distinction made between standard terms and those clauses that have been separately negotiated. The LL certainly cannot raise the rent by 200% in the middle of the contract - that is definitely excluded, but what may be considered unreasonable by a normal person may not be considered unreasonable by a lawyer... speak to Shelter or the CAB would be my suggestion if she must continue living in this property. I would hope that if the landlord wanted the right of absolute veto on any prospective replacement found by your GF together with the "must find replacement clause" this would probably be deemed unfair as the contract would more or less allow the LL to keep charging rent forever and having the house to herself once your GF left. This is a significant imbalance between the parties in the contract, and this is the sort of thing that is considered unreasonable, i.e. an imbalance between the parties to terminate the contract. However, would she want the hassle of sorting out the mess when the LL tried to enforce the contract? Court is a miserable and stressful experience even when you are in the right. Best for her to leave now. The contract as it stands indicates that the person behind it is a nasty piece of work and best to be avoided. It has been my experience, in business and in personal contracts, that whenever someone presents you with a contract like this you should just stop all dealings with them if you can. Otherwise, you will end up having a miserable time in the future one way or the other. Reasonable businesses and people propose reasonable contracts.
  18. Lol. I knew this was going to happen in 2000/2001...but then just got confused by how low interest rates seemed to stabilise things. Wasn't until 2004/2005 that I started to realise that something was really, really wrong and found this site. Kept the faith and figured that in the long run houses would return to a normal price and started buying gold. It wasn't until late 2006 that I started to realise that things were even "wronger" than I had thought previously. Learnt a lot from the economic comments made on this site and have made some nice cash shorting the obvious shares over 2007, and shorting the pound this year. However, as we go further into 2008 I am just plain scared about the outcome of this mess. No idea where money should be invested to remain safe. Doesn't matter if you make a killing spread betting if the company/bank holding your money goes bust. (So p*ssed off at myself for not shorting Ambac at the beginning of last week. I had my finger hovering over the button...truly I did, but was having a tough time on GBP/JPY so was in a risk averse mood. $%^£*!)
  19. My only concern is that as an IT consultant, you will have difficulty getting work in a recession. Contractor IT spend is one of those things that companies start cutting back on the moment times get tough. Do you have a plan if you cannot get work for one month, three months, six months? Should also put some effort into cutting outgoings back to £2k instead of £2.5k if at all possible. My partner and I have set aside next month as "see how frugally we can live month". Depending on the age of the children, I'd also suggest my partner went back to work at least until this "blows over". Having a second income can help a lot if one of the pair loses their job and, if not, allows one to build up a savings buffer, which by the sound of it you don't have. If it was me, I'd probably sell in your position. However, I can see why you haven't. People shouldn't be put into this invidious position. The bankers and politicians of this world have a LOT to answer for imho.
  20. Hmm, let's think... 4 bedrooms...require 8% return on a BTL...so £20k/year/room. £6400pcm should just about do it. Anyone else want to join me in a bargain house share in the heart of Oxford?
  21. I cannot see why you cannot remove her from your council tax, as she doesn't live there any more? The fact that she is not listed as resident at her landlady's has nothing to do with you. As for the clause mentioned above, I'm not a lawyer (so take anything I say with a grain of salt) but it sounds very much like it would be deemed an unfair term/condition. Sounds to me like she would be better finding somewhere else to lodge as this LL seems like she might be a bit of a nightmare in all sorts of ways. Does anyone know what the legal situation is with deposits as a lodger?
  22. Sadly, a lot of them are, though not necessarily consciously. One doesn't have to be with a gold digger for the lack of money to cause problems. (The best aren't though, and I'm lucky to have one.) I was in academia for a long time and the salary is atrocious, especially relative to the cost of living in the south. I left and have a job in industry now. It's not so bad and pays rather well. The OP seems to have a rather uninformed view of the possibilities in IT for someone with his education. Durham is probably not the best place to be though to leverage his education. He needs to move south a bit. Possibly also needs to get in touch with a good recruitment consultant that works with Ph.D. types (these are few and far between). We hired 2 Ph.D.s in my office last year from such a consultant (and I normally hand the phone up on recruiters, but some of the smaller focussed ones can place good people...the big chop shops are to be avoided imho - they charge too much and just shower CVs.) In any case, a starting salary of 25k in the real world should increase much quicker than an academic salary. Just need to find the right first job to get the experience. Once you have a couple of years, you can then ask for bigger bucks from someone else. Consider the first job a well paid post-doc :-) It is what i did. There is no point staying in academia unless you simply HAVE to for some neurotic personality quirk. The hours are long and once you are no longer a post doc most of it is administration/management/begging for funding and climbing the greasy pole to nowhere. I was in academia until I was 35. Had no problem leaving, but you have to find the right company.
  23. But will that remain the case when they have trouble selling them in 2 years time? Can you only sell these on to other FTBs?
  24. Ummm...you are lining the developer's pocket. These things will be worthless in a few years - losing 10k+ a year in equity over the next 5 years will hurt. wrcaracer - everyone is worth more than that place.
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