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Tiger Woods?

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  1. I knew the HPC was upon us when I heard last year that the guy who owned Foxton's sold up. Canny individual.
  2. Yep. It's becoming monotonous. Still, I enjoy the volatility. I'm waiting for 12700 again so I can get back to shorting again.
  3. I don't know the answer for gold though need to as my gains over the past 12 months are approaching the limit on my gold holdings and all my other investments are shielded from capital gains, but my guess is that the share analogy is the correct one. I would suspect that the commission is deductible and I would expect something like the 30 day rule to hold. If anyone is a tax accountant or goes to speak to one about this, I would appreciate the answer being posted here too.
  4. What happens in Australia will largely be determined by what happens in Asia. I suspect that if the US and Europe really start to suffer, China will soon follow as I don't think that its population will be able to take up the slack in consumption. Could be wrong, but hope not as I want to return home and buy a house sometime in the not too distant future Whatever happens though, Oz should come out of it better than the UK. I agree with the 1.5 million price tag being over steep even given the current situation.
  5. Toowong. Close to city and university, hence the massive rises seen there. The house was a classic 2 bed from early in 20th century (the sort with the porch in front, and hallway from main doorway with bedroom either side before passing into main living area) on a 32 perch block. It was shifted to one side of the block and raised. Half the block has been cut off and kept by the seller. Extra bedroom and balcony attached out the back (is up high so has view across green, which is nice), garage, laundry and another bedroom added underneath. Given the craziness in Brisbane at present, I expected the price to be high (900,000k was in my head when I asked them what they paid), but 1.5million! I'm clearly out of touch with economic "reality"
  6. !!!!!!!!! That is truly the most corrupt thing I have ever heard. What was the reason given for allowing this RB?
  7. You forgot Australia RB. Just been back home for a couple of weeks, and what is going on there is very much like the peak of the boom here only even more insane. Houses being snapped up in hours in Brisbane for prices that are just breathtaking multiples of average household salaries AND interest rates are higher in Australia. Friends just bought a 4 bed house on a 16 perch block for 1.5 million AUD in Brisbane, which would have been 200,000 AUD 10 years ago when it was on a 32 perch block (they are allowing people to split blocks and move the house to one half of the block, then sell the remainder!) The banks are lending money like it is going out of fashion and the TV is filled with adds for 10k loans approved with just a phone call etc. etc. Cost of basics such as food is just letting rip too. Last 4 years have seen massive increases. There is going to be some almighty pain in Oz if/when the Chinese economy implodes and no one wants our rocks any more...
  8. This may be true now, but if a HPC does kick in, then people in negative equity or with high LTV may find themselves stuck on SVR.
  9. I think you have hit the nail on the head with the "why hasn't this happened before" as being the crux of the matter. It doesn't matter that it is an accounting effect, it is the fact that it is an accounting effect of significant size that suggests that things are functioning differently from how they have historically which must mean something. My interpretation of this, and this is just what I have read from various sources and I have no real knowledge of this area and am still trying to get my head around the topic, is that some banks have not been able to raise reserves in the usual manner and that the Fed is accepting stuff that others won't accept as collateral for the loans, hence being classified as borrowed rather than non-borrowed. The Bloomberg explanation linked by another poster didn't feel satisfactory as it did not address they core issue as to why the banks are doing this now and never before, and it seemed to suggest that everything was okay as the Fed could always print more money. Seems to me that this data reflects the fact that the banks have some valueless assets and the Fed is going to support them by accepting these assets at face value or thereabouts. Clearly not the end of the world, but suggests inflation created by the Fed as being the way out? I'm rambling. Would like someone who actually understands this to provide a clear explanation. Will have to look into this further when I'm not at work.
  10. Hmm, this is now on the Fed website. Anyone care to explain why this isn't an obfuscation of the fact that there is a problem? It sounds to me like they banks have handed over "assets" to the fed in exchange for borrowed reserves. Something stinks about this: The H.3 statistical release indicates that nonborrowed reserves of depository institutions have declined substantially since mid-December to a level that is now negative. This development reflects the provision of a large volume of reserves through the Term Auction Facility (TAF) and has no adverse implications for the availability of reserves to the banking system. By definition, nonborrowed reserves are equal to total reserves minus borrowed reserves. Borrowed reserves are equal to credit extended through the Federal Reserve's regular discount window programs as well as credit extended through the TAF. To maintain a level of total reserves consistent with the Federal Open Market Committee's target federal funds rate, increases in borrowed reserves must generally be met by a commensurate decrease in nonborrowed reserves, which is accomplished through a reduction in the Federal Reserve's holdings of securities and other assets. The negative level of nonborrowed reserves is an arithmetic result of the fact that TAF borrowings are larger than total reserves. http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H3/...wedreserves.htm
  11. If he has to call people for 2k investments, the company is a dud.
  12. Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write. - H G Wells
  13. If you really don't like hot weather (are you mentally deranged! ), then consider moving to Tasmania, or New Zealand. Both have reasonably mild weather. Best of both worlds really if cold is your thing. Being an Australian who has lived in NZ (1 year) and the UK (16 years), I can guarantee that the antipodes are much nicer places in so many ways. Most of the English I know who have emigrated there enjoy it. There are a few however who can't adapt to the culture (or lack there of)...and you may be one of them. You'll never know unless you try. Why not go there for an extended holiday to scope it out if you can afford it?
  14. Debt is the slavery of the free. Publilius Syrus 1st century BC Looks like nothing much changes...
  15. You can do this through a spreadbetting firm such as igindex. Be careful, leveraged spreadbets can hurt your pocket if things go the wrong way. Also, Easyjet's problems have already hit the mainstream news. Might be good to let them recover a bit before the next piece of bad news.
  16. I've been having similar thoughts - certainly (intraday) today gold has been moving between fibonnaci levels in a very convincing TA way, including a nice double top at 61.8% fib retrace from the drop just a little while ago. On longer time scale, I suspect a drop to about 860 (daily). If it goes below that, then about 820, then 790 (Fib levels from daily August to peak, i.e. 650ish to 927ish). I'll probably place a long at 860, but this depends on how the US economic facade appears at the time. Anyhow, I'm more or less out of spread betting for a while until the recent Indian summer seems over. I suspect this year may be like the last in the sense that we have a wobble at the beginning but it will take a few months before things really get going.
  17. It's quite clear that it is only partially correlated with being what a normal person would believe was a good credit risk. There is another factor, which is how much you will earn for the cc company. Banks etc. do not just use your credit rating to determine the interest rate they will give you on a loan. They also check to see if there have been other checks on your credit rating recently. None indicates you haven't been shopping around so they can stiff you with a high interest rate, a couple means they have to compete for your business, a dozen and you are clearly desperate and thus a bad risk. I did an experiment with my partner a couple of years ago. I applied for a loan to my bank and was offered 11.9% (outrageous given the size of the loan and the amount I had with them), then made an application to a second bank and was offered 5.6%. My partner made the two applications but in reverse bank order. Lo and behold, the second rate offered to her was much better than the first as well. Now, obviously we aren't identical applicants, but the result of that little experiment was suggestive.
  18. Here here - they are in general worse than useless. I did have one though who was very good - actually came up with the goods (twice!). He got to know his candidates and prefiltered them. What turned up to the interview was what we requested. We even got them at a good price instead of the usual 30% of first year package garbage. It was a joy to work with him. Sadly, he left the industry...as his company didn't seem to like his style (of providing customers with what they wanted).
  19. I need a credit card so I can get a credit rating so I can get a home loan when this mess is all over.
  20. Actually they do, just not as much - vendors are charged a percentage of any transaction on a cc.
  21. I'm an Australian, but have lived in the UK for 16 years or so, so I only have my regular trips home to gauge things by. Having said that, I do get to see snapshots of the place separated by time which makes the changes more apparent. I think your analysis and timing is pretty well spot on. Some people I know who are clued in are seeing the writing on the wall, but most do not as far as I can tell, and the banks are still willing to rain cash down on (at least some) individuals. The house prices are crazy relative to salaries. I expect the Aussie dollar to keep appreciating for a while and then, when China goes t*ts up, the whole shebang to come down in a screaming heap. I expect a collapse in the value of the housing stock in the mining areas, which are presently at silly levels, especially given where that they are in the middle of the desert. Lots of doctors I know have been buying in these towns as investments - which is generally an indication that it is a bubble. Personally, I'm doing the best to increase the value of my savings and investments over the next couple of years with the intention of exchanging for a good rate in $AUD in about 3 to 5 years time, and then goes house shopping... One overlooking the beach on the Sunshine Coast would do me nicely. Haven't been back since Rudd was elected. Will be in Oz in February, so may be able to gauge what I think of the new government then. Have heard some things that suggest they are starting to tighten belts, but other things that make me think that they believe that Australian exports will be buffered from the turmoil in Europe and America as they believe China will keep on buying commodities at the rate they are now. This I doubt. I don't believe the Asian markets are developed enough to pick up the slack from a western slowdown/recession/depression/fiscal holocaust (delete as appropriate). A cousin of mine is a builder, who has recently retired (under the age of 40). He's sold up all of his BTLs (which he bought 12 years ago or so), and has buckets of silver literally buried around his property. I guess he sees what is coming.
  22. Can't afford to have kids, let alone grandkids....
  23. I certainly agree that anyone relying naively on technical analysis is open to exploitation and will be taken out. In fact I'm sure markets often move just a little either side of obvious levels cleaning up people's stops, but there are limits to swimming against the crowd as in a market doing so is not cost free. I also certainly believe that TA without fundamentals is asking to be robbed blind. My feeling was, until I started actually trading, was that TA was complete bunkum. I'm open minded about some aspects of it now. Taking note of it, in conjunction with fundamentals, has certainly improved my returns. I think that it is plausible that beliefs about levels in the market can affect the levels reached by the market. It's sort of like HPI, it works because enough people believe it. Similarly, price movements and volumes are information about what people are doing so that obviously some information about sentiment may be encapsulated in them. Well formed head and shoulder patterns, in my limited experience, do seem to be decent signals of markets turning, and there is a reasonable interpretation of them. Sentiment and irrationality (greed and fear) must be taken into consideration and I think what happened after the rate cut today illustrates that - short term exuberance followed by a drop after some reflection that 1.25% in under 2 weeks means something must be really wrong. As I think I mentioned in my previous post, I saw some nice models at a conference at the SWX a few years ago of market behaviour based on a few classes of investors (market followers, TAs and rational investors etc.) that exhibited some very interesting behaviour.
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