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Tiger Woods?

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Everything posted by Tiger Woods?

  1. The one meal I had at Carluccio's was truly awful. Completely SWIMMING in oil, as were the meals of everyone else that day. There was so much oil, even on the salads, nothing else could be tasted, just like his TV recipes. I never gave them a second chance. Pizza Hut, on the other hand, is always good for seconds...
  2. I suspect that you are correct here. I think it might possibly drop below 2.00 this year. Doubt it could stay like that though.
  3. Agreed...this is all the credit markets' doing, supported by either corrupt or asleep politicians. There is also a tragedy of the commons issue here as no one sovereign government can control the banks/credit markets. If credit rules are relaxed in America, there is little one can do elsewhere except follow along. You either follow or get squashed by money flowing in from the outside. I read some figures last year that were approximately: in the 70s banks owned about 19% of the value of housing in the UK (in terms of mortgage debt versus value), now it is something like 40%. i.e. by easing credit they have stolen 20% of the nations housing. What reasonable government "of the people" would allow this, hmm? My point was, however, not why these crazy prices have become possible (i.e. easy credit), nor why people over extend themselves (most people have aspirations and if a bank allows you...) but why people seem to think that it is a "good thing" for house prices to increase. That is the bit I find difficult to fathom.
  4. I'm in the same boat and have been thinking about this. My suspicion is that the pound will weaken further against the AUD this year. However, at some stage, assuming that China stops booming, as I suspect it will once the US and Europe hit a brick wall, then the AUD will drop relative to the GBP. Then again, soft commodities might be doing well in the future even if rocks out of the ground aren't worth as much any more, and it isn't as if the UK has anything going for it in the foreseeable future. Where they will end up in a couple of years relative to one another...I wish I knew. I do wonder how Australia's mall and suburban life style is going to cope with high oil prices.
  5. Australia and New Zealand lost their way somewhere in the mid 1980s. When I was a kid, professionals were richer than blue collar workers, but the variance was nowhere near what it is today. As an Aussie, who very much appreciated the fact that there was, relative to many societies, low social variance, it has been distressing to watch. When my mother moved to the Sunshine Coast in 1977, land prices (for a 24 perch block) amounted to approximately 10%-15% of the value of a family house. I suspect that it is something like 50% or more these days. I still cannot understand why rising house prices are viewed by the majority as a good thing. The only explanation I can give is abject stupidity combined with the media etc. being driven by boomers planning on downsizing. It makes no sense. Prices in Australia relative to wages are really quite seriously out of whack. A friend and his (insane, but wealthy) partner recently paid $1.6 million AUD for a house on a 16 perch block in Toowong, Brisbane. Not so long ago, this house would have been worth at most $250,000 on its original 32 perch block (block was cut in half). My friend's salary (he works in state government), is under 70k.
  6. Noticed an article today which indicated that China is trying to suppress iron ore prices by suggesting that they will refuse to buy from BHP if they want to charge spot price on their contracts (not quite correct summary, but you get the picture). China = Tescos. Australia needs to beware who it is dealing with...
  7. I thought things were getting out of hand in 2001, but didn't think any more about it or a while as I wasn't in a position to buy. I started thinking again in about 2004/5 as I was in a position to buy and decided that things were getting loopy - that was when I found this site. Was very good to find somewhere where my opinions weren't deemed perverse. Also learnt a lot from some of the other posters on this site - led me to some bearish investments that have significantly improved my deposit/security money. I predicted the run on Northern Rock. Went down town at the beginning of September 2007 with a work colleague and explained to him why I was taking a sizeable sum of cash out of my account - i.e. I expected a bank run some time in the next couple of months (I thought October), and gave NR, B&B, and A&L as possibilities, and that if it wasn't contained all hell could break lose. I think he thought I was barking, until a couple of weeks later... Interestingly, I can remember talking to a friend who is a bit of an "outsider" in about 2003, and his prediction was 2007/8. I hoped for something a little sooner - expected 2005. That seemed so far in the future back then...
  8. Without knowing the details of Jonboy's partner's personality, it is hard to judge what sort of pressure he is under. I've had quite a few friends who have succumbed to buying when they personally wouldn't for, at least short term, marital harmony. Luckily for me, my partner is understanding and agrees with me that buying a house at the present time is madness. Although she desperately wants a "home" she realises that long term probably isn't in our best interest to buy now. I hate and resent renting (in the UK, Germany would be different), but that is not enough for me to sign over my life to a bank for a 2 up 2 down. I was considering taking a job in Wales about 10 years ago, and I can remember looking at houses and thinking they were dirt cheap. They may end up that way again. Issues I think jonboy should consider: (1) Just how secure is your job. I'm in IT. Guess what gets cut when companies want to trim their budgets! (2) Where are mortgage interest rates going over the next 10 years? A fixed rate of 6.x% may (or may not) be rather good. (3) Will there be a significant nominal HPC or just a real HPC? (4) How will the local economy fair if there is a recession? (5) How will your partner react to being trapped by negative equity? Better or worse than living in a rental? Would you be able to find employment in the local area if you lost your current job? (6) How much have house prices gone up in your local area over the past 10 years? Is it all froth like Lancaster and Liverpool inner city flats? What is the ratio of average local wages to average local house prices? Are local house prices supported by the London second home market? (7) Is the house you are buying suitable for 2 adults and a few children? Or will you be living on top of each other? i.e. would you be buying what you can afford, or what you can live in for the foreseeable future? Personally, I suspect that Jonboy (or anyone) would be mad to buy at present. Things are going to get worse before they get better.
  9. You can't walk away in this country, unlike some states in the US. They can chase you for years here...pity really as they might be be more careful if you could walk away...they again, it didn't stop the US going pop.
  10. Red Kharma is Robert McNamara. I claim my £5.
  11. bump Best laugh I've had all day...
  12. The problem is that banks often allow electronic transfers to go ahead even when they know that one has exceeded one's overdraft limit. No warning is given. That is, in my opinion, criminal. I'm lucky, in that I have a good wage and have been highly employable all my life, so have never had these overdraft issues. Other people I know have had tough times and are juggling their finances very close to the edge. All it takes is one forgotten or delayed cheque for £10 and they go over their limit. They live hand to mouth. Something goes wrong with their car and costs £200 to fix? It has to go on a credit card and it takes MONTHS to pay off. What is even worse, I have seen cases where people have been charged one month because the action of extracting the previous months overdraft charge sent them over their overdraft limit. For some people, that £35 is something that have difficulty recovering from, especially when it repeats month after month. I think you need to have a little more sympathy/empathy. Not everyone who is stung by these charges is a spendthrift. My gf was, when I met her, in a graduate job paying off student debts etc., and her salary simply was not enough to live on given the debts. We did the sums again and again, it was just impossible. She was, and still is very frugal, but the sums just did not add up (in the Oxfordshire region). Of course, I have also met people who abuse their overdraft, but in the end the money isn't lent for free - overdrafts come with a high interest rate over and above the charges. I mean, it's not as if they even send you a letter for your £35. It is a punitive charge and in no way reflects they costs (and is hence illegal).
  13. Erm, I think you need to go back to school and learn a little geography. If only the Arctic melted, you would be correct. Unfortunately, a lot of the Antarctic ice is supported above sea level on land. When this melts it will raise sea levels. Further more, a general warming of the oceans would probably also lead to slight thermal expansion which would also raise sea levels. Before you start calling people uneducated, it might do you a little good to get one yourself...
  14. She may not be as stupid as we give her credit for...best thing you can possibly do in charity cases is to get the media involved.
  15. Yes, grieve with me. My unshakable faith in the city has been shaken by this unforeseen event! What can I possibly believe in now?
  16. It is certainly the case that on bad days of late, there has often been a strong rally towards the end of the day on Wall Street. It is almost too predictable. I cannot see how this can be manipulated to be the case, but it is certainly a valid observation.
  17. The Bear Stearns "event" was just a warning canary, just like it was last year. The real strife will kick in later on, perhaps the last quarter of 2008. The fact that credit is going to become constrained inevitably means that we will have a slow down one way or another. The damage has already been done. In my opinion, what has happened over the past week is that the markets are allowing themselves to go back into denial, at least for a time. Still, the US and UK currencies are weaker, and they will not regain everything they have lost over the past 6 months. Not everyone will forget that there are a lot of people out there who owe a lot of money. Either our standard of living will drop due to inflating out of this mess, or there will be asset value destruction - whatever the cause, people will have less money in real terms to spend on "stuff", which means that a lot of service industries are going to suffer which means people will have less money to spend on "stuff which means...
  18. I think the interesting point here is that the withdrawal was prearranged. I wonder what went on here...simple c**k up or???
  19. Erm, if one can believe the structure they set up, this is not the case. The gold is held in bailement. You own the gold, not bullionvault, so their creditors cannot get to it. (In much the same way as a broker that gives you a CREST account cannot touch your shares when they go bust, but one that holds them in a nominee account (like all share ISAs) have to hand them over to the liquidators.) Whether you can get to it is another matter. In the case of a collapse or similar dire situation, bullionvault claim you can take delivery of full bars or, for a capped percentage fee, the gold can be delivered in smaller coins/bars. Of course, this does not stop a government stealing it from you or bullionvault being involved in some major fraud etc.
  20. Yep, no better advice than that. The divorces I have seen that have ended up with legal involvement have always ended up worse for both parties. Glad you could work things out amicably.
  21. First, be careful. You can lose a lot of money spreadbetting very quickly if you don't know what you are doing. For that matter, you can lose a lot of money even if you do know what you are doing. Second, IG Index allows you to auto rollover your position. Talk to your broker about how to arrange that. The other possibility is to buy a futures contract on the FTSE - got to Indices - UK -FTSE 100 and you will have options for spread bets on contracts out to Jan09. Note that the spreads on these are greater than the spot market.
  22. I do hope this is the new currency of choice, for I shall be rich
  23. Talking of Chinese restaurants ringing Windsor Castle, I can thoroughly recommend the Yangtze. All you can eat, whatever you like from the menu (hint: take the set menu, it's bl**dy good) all for £12.50 per head. Ridiculously fast, friendly, and efficient service. Make sure you book though as it is usually packed. Why can't all restaurants be so good? Hope (and expect) the owner, who is always on site, has made a fortune.
  24. Over £200k for one of those prison cells - they are having a larf! Nearly £500k for one of the "penthouses"... That's the best belly laugh I've had this year.
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