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Tiger Woods?

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  1. Yep...read a lot...stare at a screen a lot...follow how the markets move as news comes out and over the next days\weeks. Focus on only a few things and become an "expert". (e.g. I follow 4 currencies and associated pairs, gold, land and building stocks, some gambling stocks, and some sellers of materials associated with the building industry.) By the time you read about it in the newspaper, it is too late. (Actually, the rumours on this site are often ahead of the markets...so worthwhile paying attention to.) To make money at spread betting you MUST invest time and energy. You must learn how to control your emotions (both fear and greed...this is the really difficult one and after doing this for a long time I still sometimes let them get the better of me, almost invariably to my cost). Remember, the people you are competing against are professionals who do this for a living, and it isn't even a zero sum game, as the market makers take their spread. I've made a tidy net profit spread betting, but it hasn't come easy, and there have been some costly lessons on the way. Nothing like losing 7 grand in a day to teach you a lesson. (nothing like making 30 grand in a day either...but that is another story.) As they say, if you buy based on what you read in the newspapers, you will be selling them by next year...
  2. What is interesting, and this is what I have based a lot of my spread bets this year on, is that a lot of the bankers are in denial too.
  3. True, but then they didn't have the possibility of all the labour saving machinery that we have now either.
  4. I was talking to an historian about this a few weeks ago. Apparently your average medieval peasant worked many fewer hours per week (averaged over the year) than we do now.
  5. Gratz. I feel sorry for the mug who bought it though.
  6. To put this in perspective, 3-5 trillion is still somewhere between 25% and 40% of the US GDP. People have been talking about write downs on the order of a quarter to a half trillion due to this credit crunch, and look at the strife it has caused. Another point to consider was that LTCM was unwound in a reasonably orderly fashion. Would that be as likely if a bigger institution failed? Might not a greater percentage be actualised? I do take your point that nowhere near the full notional value of these derivatives could actualise, but I am not sure that JS is being unfair in using the notional value in the way he does. Aside from the notional value of all these contracts, how else could one quantify the scale of the market in a manner that communicated the risk without getting into detailed scenarios? There is a useful rhetorical point being made - the numbers involved are huge and only a tiny fraction of a percentage would have to be actualised to cause severe financial turmoil and hence severe economic harm. Whilst it is clear that derivatives have a role to play in ameliorating financial risk, the fact is that, as one can see from the total notional value, they have broken away from being insurance policies on their underlyings and have become a thing in and of themselves. The notional value has also been increasing rapidly since 1998, and often the comparison is made between the scale of the market then and now. Without using notional values, how could one do that?
  7. The critical point is "provided both banks are alive". Doesn't anyone remember the repercussions of what happened when LTCM failed? At the time there was a fear that there would be a huge crash in the financial system, and that was for a loss of on the order of 4.6 billion....or 0.0005% of the nominal value of these derivatives. Have you forgotten why Bear Stearns was sold to JP Morgan? Derivatives only sum to zero if all the counterparties still exist. Anyone who thinks that the size of the current derivatives market does not increase the risk of a major global financial meltdown is a complete theoretician and a dangerously ignorant blinkered fool. The point is that, given this sort of leverage, how hard is it to believe that say, 0.1% of these nominal values became actualised? 0.1% is 1 trillion dollars. 0.01% is still 100 billion.
  8. erm, you are out by 1000..1,000,000,000,000 is a trillion. So, you are looking at £77,480 per man woman and child. That is certainly a number to dwell upon, and one that makes me glad I own some of the yellow stuff.
  9. I concur. Today is not the day to be shorting the other builders or associated industries...they have all taken a plunge and they will retrace to a certain degree. Wait a few days or a week until the retracement is over, then enter into a short position for a longer term. The thing to remember is that if you hear about it on the radio or the telly, it is too late...the big boys know this and they chew up all the small punters who hop in hoping to squeeze a few pips worth of profit. You'll also see this in small caps...often when they are given recommendations in major publications they seem to spike for a couple of days, then return to their previous levels. In general, I read the opinions, but wait to act until they have been "forgotten about".
  10. Igindex. Very nice interface. Good spreads.
  11. Oh dear. A stonkingly huge mortgage for a Barratt hovel and soon to be without a job...a life completely ruined by 21. Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear!
  12. It's not even a zero sum game as the market makers and brokers take their share... Anyway, the spike was a great selling opportunity. ABNs valuations seem about correct, and all of the builders' shares will be more or less worthless if houses crash 15% to 20%
  13. Anyone know what brought on the huge spike across all builders shares AND things like carpet right etc? Was a great opportunity to pick up some shorts, but gee whiz...how the heck would someone bailing out Barrats have any sort of effect on the others...completely and utterly irrational (and profitable). The markets are nuts.
  14. Yep, been there seen that before. Hurts at the time, but in the end you realise it is a blessing. Really quite scary how shallow some people can be.
  15. I'm only interested in eating organically reared roasted children...suggests there may be a market for children from the currently MEWed out middle class. Would there be a separate section in Tescos you think? Would Aldi import their children from Africa...could you ethically eat them because of the food miles on them? Oh the decisions, the decisions.
  16. Sadly, for a lot of people they forget the "worse" and "poorer" bits in for "better for worse, for richer, for poorer".
  17. Well, you could argue it would be good for the kids. Kids who have spent time in more than one culture often seem to have much broader horizons than those who haven't. Suggesting someone sees a psychiatrist is probably NOT a constructive path (both the act of suggesting and the actual act of seeing one.)
  18. Not wanting to get into conspiracy theory territory, but wasn't it interesting that they started talking about worldwide banking regulations etc. the day after the Bliderberg meet started. A global fiat currency would be an absolute disaster...we can't even set interest rates right for the whole of the UK or the whole of Europe, let alone the world.
  19. Although I have little time for the amateur BTLers who can make life miserable for tenants, and people like the Wilsons who ruin whole areas, it is good to hear that you made a success of BTL. In the end someone has to own the rental properties. Sounds as if you have approached it with your eyes wide open, and with a bit of business nouse. By the way, did you first start buying properties?
  20. Having to move house as our BTL landlord wishes to sell...hence my partner and I have been looking at a number of homes, and the difference between houses from each decade in the UK is palpable and shocking. The quality and liveability of homes has been decreasing steadily since the 1970s. In particular, one thing we noticed is that rooms of later builds seem to be more and more like railway carriages - very narrow. Amazing how oppressed and claustrophobic one feels in these narrow hutches...it MUST affect the behaviour and social demeanour of those who live in them in a negative manner.
  21. Educate yourself; do your own research; ignore numpties. Listen to him, but consider him a source of the "current thinking" in the market. Always assume that when it is being parroted to you by someone like this, that you are probably entering late, and that you are likely to be stung if you stay in what he suggests for any length of time. Seriously, the conclusion I came to 5 or 6 years ago is to ignore these people. You know the definition of a stock broker? S/he's someone who invests your money in the stock market until it is gone.
  22. There is an assumption that wages will rise with inflation. Unlike the 70s, this may not be the case this time.
  23. 5 million you say...about enough for 10 luxury flats...
  24. I get the impression, at least talking to the estate agent, that they are pretty clueless. He's said to them (accurately) that houses are for sale all over and they will have difficulty selling, and I think their responses have frustrated him. Given that they are willing to "wait 6 months and see", it sounds as if they are in denial and will be chasing the market down. Given how they handled the one problem we did have in the house in the two years we have been here, I don't have much sympathy. If they were to try to sell, then obviously they should put the house on the market asap and they shouldn't have offered us the 6 month option...or they should have gone for the periodic AST option which we offered them that would have allowed them to try to sell but maintain a cash flow...having said that, have seen much nicer around here which will go before this one...i.e. I expect they are stuffed. Anyhow, we aren't particularly attached to the house and want to rent something a little more spacious...so we have no problems leaving...the problem is finding somewhere that is decent and not owned by a vacillating short term BTLer...from what we have experienced so far, that is going to be difficult around here this summer, as everywhere seems to be both for rent (short term) and for sale at the same time. So, back to my original question to those of you who were in this country last time, what are people's thoughts on how the rental market will evolve over the next 6 months - will people still be trying to sell and rent at the same time, or will properties start coming back on the market for long term rents?
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