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kilroy

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Everything posted by kilroy

  1. things like art and fine wine and classic cars as investmemts are the froth on the froth of this bubble. There are just as many picassos today as there were 10 years ago. Only reason they have tripled is because of loose credit. Watch the prices crash and burn as 30% of hedge funds go to the wall
  2. plus these guys don't get sacked, they officially get made redundant. Redundancy packages generally consist of the average of their last 4-5 years of bonuses, which generally does not come out of the bonus pool.
  3. one could argue that as the losses have already been made, it leaves more for the survivors. Over the past few years, city bonuses have become heavily polarised where high performers subsidise the flotsam to a much lesser degree than in the past
  4. As I have said before correlation desks around the City have been dropping 100s of millions. Barcap is rumoured to have dropped around 800mln or so (and this is a separate part to the one that Cahill was running). There's a lot of pain at the moment, but should be eased a little by the inevitable wave of clients wanting their deals restructured (for a fee, of course).
  5. no 100%, if government goes bust they will print to cover losses. Just don't expect to be able to afford anything imported (i.e. everything)
  6. Technically you are long, as someone pointed out in another thread. that lost tax will have to be taken somewhere else. Also, I was thinking of 2 t-shirts the other day first for mortgagees which says "my mortgage went to a CDO and all I got was this lousy t-shirt" and the second for the bag holders which says "my CDO went to the rating agencies and all I got was a lousy AAA rating".
  7. I thought the one with the woman offering the alien a cup of tea was quite amusing
  8. they dropped a rather large shoe by all accounts, and their main clients were hedge funds.
  9. I liked the taffy estate agent unconvincingly telling us everything would be fine
  10. UK Plc is definitely heading for some cold turkey
  11. On Bloomberg. Non-conforming = subprime/btl/no deposit Delinquencies Rise Among Some U.K. Mortgage Borrowers, S&P Says By John Glover Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- An index measuring delinquencies on riskier U.K. home loans, known as non-conforming mortgages, rose almost 5 percent in the second quarter and will climb further in the second half of the year, Standard & Poor's said. Borrowers who failed to meet their commitments for 90 days or more stood at 9.92 percent of the total, according to an e- mailed report on the U.K. Non-Conforming RMBS Index, which rose to 20.9 percent from 19.9 percent. The mortgages typically don't meet standard lending criteria such as credit history or the amount borrowed and include buy-to-let and self-certified loans. The Bank of England has raised interest rates five times in a year, increasing the pressure that floating-rate borrowers are under as the pace at which house prices gain slows down, S&P said. Moreover, the full effects of higher interest rates haven't yet fed through, according to the report, whose authors were Kate Livesey and Sean Hannigan in London. S&P ``expects the delinquency and repossession levels to worsen in the second half of 2007,'' the report said. ``A decline in house prices will affect the refinancing options available to borrowers and their incentive to meet mortgage payments.'' Issuance of bonds backed by non-conforming loans continues to grow, with 5.68 billion pounds ($11.4 billion) of new transactions rated by S&P in the second quarter bringing the total to 37.49 billion pounds, according to the report. --Editor: Shanahan To contact the reporter on this story: John Glover in London at +44 20 7073 3563 or [email protected] To contact the editor responsible for this story: Gavin Serkin at +44 207 673 2467 or [email protected]
  12. at least I pay my dues. Are you going to stop paying taxes as well?
  13. James Dyson instead perhaps? I already donate to charities and I originally applied to do medicine but got no offers so did physics instead. Had my father been a gp, things may have been different, but thems the breaks. My soul is my own, always has been, always will be. Any other pearls?
  14. well, just the greedy, grabby stupid ones. You will probably never hear about the greedy, grabby intelligent ones for they will be dry, dressed and having a pint in the sea side bar whilst the stupid ones are floundering naked in the mud where the sea once was
  15. Do you also suggest capping wages of Philip Green? Norway tried to cap wages in the 50's with a 110% income tax over a certain level; that resulted in a mass brain drain. What would you do if you were me?
  16. What about the people who are about to lose their "pensions" in the house price crash you so desire?
  17. Oh no, we can't include footballers. They provide a service and deserve every penny they get.
  18. I made over GBP40mln for my employer last year plus the kudos of a few international awards (if I ever leave, I will post a picture of my trophies for the Thomas's out there). I can't reveal my salary as I woudl be in breach of my employee contract. I agree that getting paid a million pounds for doing nothing is obscene (as is getting paid 1 pound for doing nothing), but if it is performance related, what is the problem?
  19. And what about us suckers who are not non-doms who still pay 40% tax? Sure, there are schemes to reduce tax even for doms, but thus far I have resisted (though not sure for how much longer as I see more and more being sp*nked up the wall by the government). I work on a credit derivative desk which structures corporate credit CDOs amongst other products. We work hard, make our money, pay our taxes. My boss drives a boxster, I drive a BMW 530 on an 02 plate (bought in 05). We are not all flash gits, in fact the majority of people I would argue are not, it's just the ones who are who get the exposure; what makes a better headline a) Banker sprays 42k bottle of bubbly up wall or b ) banker buys 2-year-old BMW touring? I woudl be interested to find out what occupatinos other people have and ages? As stated above Occupation: Credit Derivatives Structurer Age: 30 (and before anyone starts with the "you can't be otherwise you would not ahve time to be surfing web etc" the answer to that is "I am, but business is quiet at the moment " )
  20. now now, 0% hpi for year to date is not so bad.....
  21. Copied off bloomberg terminal. not on internet yet By Darrell Hassler Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- A Cheyne Capital Management Ltd. commercial paper program with as much as $20 billion in assets, including real estate securities, may liquidate because of losses, Standard & Poor's said. The program, called Cheyne Finance LLC, is a structured investment vehicle that purchases securities by issuing short-and medium-term debt, S&P said in a statement today. It breached a test based on losses in the portfolio that may force liquidation, S&P said. London-based Cheyne Capital is the portfolio manager. Stuart Fiertz, a founder of Cheyne Capital, didn't return requests for comment. Losses in the value of securities backed by subprime mortgage and funded by short-term debt have caused commercial paper yields to soar this month. There are about $385 billion outstanding in structured investment vehicles and 23 percent of their assets are mortgage securities or collateralized debt obligations that often hold mortgages, according to an Aug. 9 report by Bear Stearns Cos. Near-term sales from the vehicles because of losses in the market value of subprime mortgage securities may total $23 billion, Bear Stearns said. The Cheyne portfolio is primarily invested in ``real estate securitizations'' and none of the assets have had downgrades, S&P said. Structured investment vehicles often aren't backed by credit lines from banks like asset-backed commercial paper programs, of which there is $1.05 trillion outstanding. S&P cut the credit rating on the commercial paper issued by Cheyne Finance by two levels to A-2 from A-1+. The rating on senior debt was reduced six levels to A- from AAA, the highest rating. Aug. 30 The average yield on the highest rated asset-backed commercial paper with one-day maturity has risen 0.71 percentage point this month to 6.04 percent as investors have fled funding linked to subprime mortgages, according to Bloomberg data. Cheyne Capital may begin liquidating assets and by Aug. 30 will estimate expected proceeds from future asset sales, S&P said. Queen's Walk Investment Ltd., a fund run by Cheyne Capital that invested in mortgages, reported in June a loss of 67.7 million euros ($92 million) in the year ended March 31. Securities of subprime mortgages to people with poor credit or high debt have lost value because of the highest delinquency rate in four years. Commercial paper is debt due in 270 days or less. --Editor: Bostick To contact the reporter on this story: Darrell Hassler in Chicago at +1-312-443-5936 or [email protected] To contact the editor responsible for this story: Emma Moody at +1-212-617-3504 or [email protected]
  22. I reckon it should be when rate of change of HPI is below some threshold. now how you define HPI (Mom or Yoy) or rate of change (timing) and threshold is up for discussion . For example say jan, feb and march showed average YoY of 12% whereas average of Aug, Sep and Oct showed 2%. If the threshold is -10% then crash started in Feb as 12%-2%=10% etc. Obviously woudl have to agree on data, threshold, nominal or real prices etc, but I think we should determine the inflection point of house prices as opposed to when they simply fall
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