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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by kilroy

  1. yes, they are technically insolvent. How this can be interpreted as not deflationary is beyond me.
  2. It is not good for the dollar, but the UK is more screwed than the US. Most debt is in dollars, thus usuary and principl needs to be repaid in dollars which means that when dollars disappear they will be a lot more valuable. (Also, in the end of the world scenario, the US have a lot more nukes than us to back their currency with)
  3. which is why the homebuilders are taking it in the shorts also.
  4. highest wage inflatino in x years => higher than expected rates
  5. in your epilogue you have ignored MEW. should mention level of LTV and prospect og negative equity, unable to sell and be trapped
  6. think you need to look at the chain deflator figure of 0.7%. Implies lowest inflation in 53 years. Looks as if US could be on verge of deflation.....
  7. this is the highest since the index was introduced. pervious highs are 2.5%
  8. chatting with an agent in Surbiton last weekend. He claimed that the only action at the bottom of the ladder are first-time buyers whose parents are MEWing the family home to help them. traditional ftb and btl are out
  9. Nah, all down to people at the top of the chain. Who are these people? Why, it's the babyboomers downsizing who are relying on banking as much as they can for their pension. They will hold out as long as possible, it is only when they actually start to see their pension pot going up in flames will they start the race to the bottom. Just my opinion, of course
  10. that is the economists' consensus on bloomberg.
  11. the mean is the average. is it the median that has YoY fall of 4.2%
  12. Median price down 5.66% MoM. Average price down 4.27% MoM. Median price down 4.16% YoY. Average price down 3.22% YoY.
  13. Why do you think they are doing well? Because Bob diamond said so?
  14. "History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes" I believe the saying goes. Is it your first crash?
  15. excellent! those other rockets were getting boring.....
  16. but the "wealth effect" may still play a part here. i think original account holders were given around GBP1000 worth of shares when it floated. At the peak, this was worth around 7k, now worth around 800 quid or so.
  17. yes, it will go up or down against the Euro (unless the EUR becomes backed by gold, and it may have gone up or down in the meantime). 100% correct, guaranteed.
  18. If hedging a derivative meltdown is the only reason for holding then would it not be better to hold physical and sell via derivatives. You get no mtm gains or losses and if things go into meltdown then the derivative will be worthless. As a result, you receive the full perceieved benefit of holding the physical but without the mark to market volatility. If you hold it a store of wealth against normal inflation, then clearly this is not the trade for you.
  19. not quite. You are not betting on spot gold (well you can, but you ahve to pay daily funding and bidoffer), you normally do it on futures. As a result, if you have USD in cash, the interest earnt on those would be offset by the difference between spot gold and the gold future. One thing I do liek about spreadbetting is that payout can be quantoed directly into sterling. As a result, I benefit twice from USD weakening. Firstly I benefit as gold goes up in dollars, secondly I benefit because the % gain is paid in sterling. So for example, if gold went up 1% and dollar weakend by 1% against sterling, I actually make 2% whereas if I were holding physical, I would only make 1% (clearly the opposite applies).
  20. why don't you just spread bet. As p/l comes in, unwind some and use cash to buy physical. I love derivatives, me.
  21. but is the the collateral being marked at fair value or par? If I recall, NRK said in their press statement as a footnote that their investment portfolio was not marked at fair value.
  22. should be "British public parts company with reality"
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