zugzwang

So, they intend to subject the eurodollar markets to greater scrutiny - at last! Very interesting to see what becomes of this. At present the world is in a worse position than it was in the nineteenth century before the US govt outlawed currency printing by commercial banks.

Renters have less disposable income and/or living room, landlords and bankers progressively more.

My estimation of Mark Carney is already lower than a grasshopper's knee.

Another excuse for this filthy animal not to jack the rates.

The Keynesian fallacy is always to assume that individuals and firms will borrow to finance growth not speculation. But organic growth is difficult, time consuming and risky whereas financial speculation is merely risky. Thus, over time, the malinvestments responsible for the crisis become reinvigorated rather than unwound. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-03/companies-borrowing-spree-darkens-stock-market-future

While the cost of keeping a roof over your head continues to race away from you at an exponential rate.

Ten + years ago the Keynesian hoons were arguing for a housing bubble to repair the damage caused by the dotcom bubble... Now they're claiming that a sovereign debt bubble will remedy the damage caused by the housing bubble! Except for Japan, of course, where a sovereign debt bubble has helped bankrupt the country...

Market volatility (1999). Shiller uses it in his theoretical discussion of market efficiency in the context of rational and irrational behaviour. Shiller is the one being irrational. While it's straightforward to derive an expression for fair value by discounting dividends and returns indefinitely, the practical computation of said expression makes impossible information demands on our knowledge of the future. Another example of economists preferring mathematical self-consistency to scientific (empirical) rigour.

Except if you're Japan, Greece, Italy or Cyprus. Blanchard's idiot mob appears as much in the dark today as they were in August 2008 when he authored his now infamous paper declaring the worst of the crisis over.

It's all part of Osborne's Plan Z.

If we're in a depression then surely we should expect P/E ratios to be far lower than they were during the bubble years as there simply isn't enough liquidity around to keep prices elevated? Maybe that represents a short-term buying opportunity, maybe it doesn't. It took US stocks 25 years to get back to their nominal peak of 1929. The Japanese stock market is still 40% lower than it was in 1989. The discounted future dividends model that Shiller employs in his formal definition of value is inherently unfalsifiable (i.e. garbage) and directly contradicted by Modigliani and Miller who established that dividends don't matter in the valuation of a firm. Nothing could be a bigger waste of time for an investor than attempting to anticipate a future stream of dividend payments. No argument with BTL, ofc.

Never ask a barber if you need a haircut.

No rate rise until September 2016, says Torygraph/Capital Economics. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/interest-rates/11032396/Interest-rates-predictions-When-will-the-Bank-Rate-rise.html

He didn't predict anything. Prediction requires a zeroth order falsifiable model at the very least. Since Blanchflower doesn't have one - the Neoclassical/New Keynesian model having been comprehensively falsified by the GFC - the proper conclusion is that he guessed.

If the Tories engineer a 50% crash, either by accident or design, they'll be wiped out at the next GE!

Didn't mean to imply otherwise, sorry.

Broadly in line with consumer inflation, like everything else - otherwise it's a bubble.

Correlation doesn't prove causation but does strongly suggest it. I believe we're in a secular bear market which started in 2000 and has been interrupted twice by financially engineered cyclical bull markets (04-07, 09-14). The oil price crash fortuitously allowed the Fed to continue its charade of extend and pretend into 2015 but now with oil back up to ~$65 and layoffs in the shale states moderating, Yellen has been left with few excuses not to put up rates. Jobless claims have been running at bubble levels for two years. Annual US house price inflation has been running at 7% since 2012. Despite the recent run of disappointing GDP numbers, parts of the US economy are white hot. The real problems will start when the Fed finds that in order to get rates up, and keep them up, it has to start shrinking its balance sheet. Mr Market is going to throw a hissy fit at that. The secular bear will start to roar again soon.

It's just one bubble after another, and they all end the same way.

The central banksters haven't started tightening yet. Every time the Fed hinted at doing so and we got a pull back, one of the other goons opened the taps and/or promised to keep the party going. Aggregate Fed, ECB and BoJ assets in dollars vs US stock prices. Cause... and effect.

Hang on. This can't be right. Greek GDP -0.2% in Q1. US GDP -0.7% !?

In a zero yield world lenders simply can't afford to let their customers victims remortgage. As soon as those teaser rates expire it's onto the SVR @ >5% they'll go, and on the SVR @ >5% they'll remain.

Equitable was aware of their potential exposure to diminishing returns for a long time but failed to hedge adequately against it, falsely assuming a legal entitlement to stiff future annuity holders instead. They lost in court.

Another great thread resurrected from the twilight zone!