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House Price Crash Forum

zugzwang

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Everything posted by zugzwang

  1. Recall the OBR projections. Osborne's 'recovery' is predicated on a monstrous run-up in household borrowing, far beyond that accomplished by Brown.
  2. Neoclassical/New Keynesian economics in a nutshell.
  3. Imagine if the economic fate of the world were entirely dependent on the factional dispositions of the Chinese Communist Party. That really would be something, wouldn't it?
  4. Wage inflation claims look dumber than ever. https://alantonelson.wordpress.com/2015/07/31/whats-left-of-our-economy-wage-inflation-claims-looking-dumber-or-more-self-interested-than-ever/
  5. Welcome to the Unicorn Club, doofus. Where stock prices go up forever and the govt's always looking out for the small guy.
  6. Ashes influence can boost Birmingham house prices. http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/homes-and-property/ashes-influence-can-boost-house-976775
  7. Bleedin' obvious. Unless, of course, it's 1973 all over again...
  8. Boom! http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/30/shell-and-centrica-cut-12000-jobs
  9. The Fed's great bartender recovery, 2011-14. https://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2015/07/29/hey-bartender-fed-looks-to-raise-rates-in-face-of-the-great-bartender-recovery/
  10. Hillary got a $600 haircut? Wait til you see the haircut the Fed's bond portfolio is about to get.
  11. What the goons really want from electronic money is the facility to administer negative nominal interest rates, the opportunity to monitor every aspect of our lives is merely a secondary bonus. Since I vastly prefer freedom to convenience I still use cash to pay for just about everything I buy.
  12. Probably sufficient for Carney to postpone the rate rise he keeps promising to make for yet another year.
  13. UK June business lending plummets by most since records began. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-june-business-lending-plummets-084711922.html
  14. Smells like another stealth fiscal stimulus on the way from Osborne. Grrrr,
  15. If that were true then the UK economy would have been growing at least as fast as the national debt i.e .7 % p.a. not the sub 2% witnessed since 2008. Clearly, much of this additional borrowing has not been added to GDP, being used instead to retire or replace existing debt stock.
  16. The Guardianistas would appear to be every bit as deranged as their rentier counterparts at the Telegraph and the Mail.
  17. We need a bubble to replace the bubble that replaced the bubble before that.
  18. UK goldilocks debt 'recovery' continues. GDP up 0.7% in Q2. North Sea oil + gas over-production largely responsible as manufacturing contracts (again). Rate rise cancelled (again). http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jul/28/business-live-uk-gdp-growth-figures-osborne-greece-live
  19. This has to be correct. To effect a sustainable recovery, asset prices and current prices need to be brought back into balance. All QE has done is drive up the former and suppress the latter. Reversing it would have the opposite effect.
  20. An exact repeat of 2008 and the 1970s: a liquidity shortage in shadow markets that cannot be confined by the central bank(s) and ends up devastating the financial system proper.
  21. Ah the old Keynesian multiplier effect hogwash. Strategic infrastructure investment that 'more than' repays the debt incurred to create it. Otherwise known as bridges to nowhere.
  22. Interesting how the rent farmers are unafraid to call it house price inflation and indentify it as a goal to be fostered continuously, whereas the conomists and central bankers refer to it as house price appreciation and dismiss it from their calculations completely. Makes you wonder which is the bigger set of douchebags.
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