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zugzwang

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Everything posted by zugzwang

  1. The introduction of a fully convertible digital yuan will devastate the U.S. and the UK. The trade war with China is an attempt to frustrate the realisation of that ambition.
  2. There was an enormous house price crash from 2008-11. Prices began to recover in 2012 following the introduction of series of market defying subsidies from George Osborne.
  3. The world changed in 1980 with the advent of supply-side, free market 'trickle down' economics which reduced taxes for the wealthy and massively increased the availability of consumer credit and investment capital. This pathological imbalance has resulted in a sequence of economic recessions stabilised only by a secular reduction in base rates, approx 4% per decade until the ZLB was reached in 2008.
  4. All countries are not the same. The UK's debt per capita is 2x that of Germany. 4x if you include public sector pensions. Germany still has an AAA credit rating. The UK's is now AA-. The UK has run a persistent current account deficit since 1999. Germany is one the world's great industrial exporters.
  5. Sunak and Boil have run up another three quarters of a trillion between them in just eighteen months. How come it never gets talked about? Outside of this forum, when did you ever hear anyone mention Term Funding? How about the interest that's recurring on the National Debt? Or the bubble of phantom equity in the housing market, bigger now than in 2008?
  6. There's no room to cut taxes! Not today and certainly not tomorrow. Only wealth redistribution can save the UK from bankruptcy. Hence Bozo is unlikely to be around at the next GE. 🖐️
  7. The UK is already being cut to ribbons by import inflation. Any further declines of GBP vs USD will be murderous. Recession ahoy!! 👊
  8. Really? The energy crisis looks like another case of buyer's regret to me! It was all there in black and white, a blueprint for Britain's future.
  9. They're all terrible. They've always been terrible! Doris is in front a select committee right now, lying though her rotten teeth. Dorries says she is confident BBC will survive another 10 years - contrary to what she told Tory conference fringe John Nicolson (SNP) goes next. Q: You said you did not know if the BBC will be going in 10 years’ time? That’s extraordinary. Dorries says she was asked about the licence fee. Nicolson reads back the quote to her. She said she did not know if the BBC would still be there in 10 years time. Well, I don’t, says Dorries. And neither do you. Q: The Times reported that you said the Nick Robinson interview with the PM would cost the BBC a lot of money. Dorries says she did not hear the interview, and she did not says that. She says she is “very sure the BBC will be here in 10 years’ time”. The point she was making was that you cannot predict the future, she says. Q: You said BBC broadcasting was like what you would see in a Soviet country. Have you ever visited a Soviet country? Dorries says she will not comment on tweets she posted 12 years ago. Nicolson says it was not 12 years ago. It was in the Daily Mail last month.
  10. How many of these super-leveraged gimmick operations have fallen over in the past two weeks? Who picks up the bill? So much for the efficiency of the market!
  11. Your entire doomsday shtick is predicated on a false belief in the infallibility of the market. That's why you've got nothing to say!
  12. On a rolling bailout and profiteering opportunity for the City of London? Incalculable folly.
  13. 16% nationally. 20+% locally. Most of it generated by Sunak's reckless stamp duty cut. Globalisation is the old normal. Globalisation fell over and died in 2008. Successive UK govts have spent the thick end of £2 trillion holding the corpse upright in the years since. Not for much longer.
  14. We don't have an energy market! Generating costs and losses in transmission are too variable for a market pricing mechanism to work. Enron tried and failed to overcome this inescapable physical constraint by making huge leveraged bets on energy futures. At the time of their spectacular collapse in October 2001 they'd built the biggest derivatives trading floor in the world. A lesson obviously not learned by the Tory twits.
  15. UK house prices were unaffordable before Covid arrived. Sunak and Bailey put another 20+% on top by giving away £750bn between them. The country is f***ed.
  16. A nationwide program of general needs social housing is what was required ten years ago not a succession of market defying subsidies aimed at mortgage lenders, property developers and private landlords and financed with public borrowing.
  17. Don't get me wrong, I'd sooner have taken a degree in Physics than anything else! But the curriculum was a creaking relic then and would be hopelessly out of date today. The emphasis throughout was on hand-rolling closed form solutions to classical problems using the calculus. Frictionless bearings, rigid rods, spherical cows: The kind of thing Physics undergrads have wrangled with for decades. Profoundly unphysical and frankly irrelevant to anything you might do afterwards. The idea of using computers to generate numerical solutions to nonlinear real world problems was practically absent. Gleick's Chaos was passed about like samizdata but we never really engaged with its revolutionary ideas in the classroom. Today's white hot research frontiers - quantum computing, quantum information processing, quantum metrology etc. - had barely been imagined in 1988.
  18. Grow up, man. Mandatory vaccination has been a thing for hundreds of years. 29 out of 35 countries in the Americas operate compulsory vaccination programs for schoolchildren. More people died taking selfies this year than from complications following a Covid jab!
  19. Horrific for the unvaccinated, the redneck states, the libertarian baby-men, the Almighty Christ is My Redeemer crowd. Everyone else: "We can see up your frock, Jeebus. You've got nothing on!"
  20. Total payments are going parabolic anyway. Alongside the interest payments there are also PFI payments and payments for unfunded public sector pensions. The true national debt is now something like £9.6 trillion, more than 4x the size of the economy. In addition, Sunak is going to borrow at least £200bn this fy hoping to avert a Covid recession, on top of the £323bn he borrowed last year, and then there's the enormous bribe to elderly home owners the Tories like to make prior to every GE... Oh, and let's not forget the £200bn in interest free loans that the Bank has made via the TFSME. Those will have to be rolled over continuously/retired very gradually to avoid a negative credit impulse being imparted to the economy.
  21. The Physics degree I took in the late 80s was rubbish, frankly. Full of eighteenth and nineteenth century mathematics. Hopelessly out of date. Nonlinear dynamics was an afterthought. Chaos? Never heard of it. Computation was restricted to solving problems you could solve analytically! Computer Algebra Systems? Never heard of them. Object Oriented programming? Wtf??
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