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zugzwang

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Posts posted by zugzwang

  1. What trade war?

    🤣

    US suppliers have reportedly been granted tens of billions of dollars worth of permits to export to Huawei and Chinese chip maker SMIC

    The US government’s decision to issue US$100 billion worth of export permits to suppliers of Huawei Technologies Co and China’s top chip maker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) – both on the US trade blacklist – shows how difficult it is for the world’s two largest economies to decouple, analysts said.

    From November 2020 to April 2021, US suppliers received 113 export licences worth US$61 billion to sell to Shenzhen-based telecommunications giant Huawei, as well as 188 licences worth US$42 billion to sell to Shanghai-based SMIC, according to a Reuters report on Thursday, citing documents obtained from the US Congress.

    The bulk licensing, which is likely to enrage politicians in Washington who want the US to restrict sales of semiconductor-related products to China, suggests that the decision must have been made based on strong economic rationale, as the US grapples with the impact of a prolonged global chip shortage, according to value chain experts.

     
  2. 43 minutes ago, Warlord said:

    It's possible to support some things and not OTHER things.  Boris is a real disappointment. He's a big spending socialist that @zugzwangwould be proud of 

    The UK's capital structure is still mostly in private hands.

    Sunak is still demanding 'savings' i.e. spending cuts from departmental budgets.

    The BoE is still showering City criminals with billions via the TFSME (£87bn) and the corporate bond purchasing scheme (£19bn).

    Crony capitalism not socialism.

  3. 20 minutes ago, Si1 said:

    0.5% within the next 12 months, 1% within the next 24 months. And that's very approximate and uncertain, and basically plagiarising from some decent commentators,

     

    Alternative scenario: the economy flatlines after a couple of tiny hikes and we get a run on sterling.

    Can you imagine? The economy mired in a stagflationary recession even though the govt is borrowing >10% of GDP every year?

    It's almost incomprehensible that we've got to this point but we have.

     

  4. 2 hours ago, FallingAwake said:

    I don't think he's lost sight of it. Based on his posts, I think he embraces it. Boots may be stomped on people's faces as much as necessary, to achieve ZeroCovid(tm).

     

    Flaring nonsense! Jacinda Ardern was re-elected with a landslide majority at the end of last year.

    Zero Covid is far less disruptive of people's lives than the stop-start/ stop-start pro-market alternatives adopted in the West.

    a91061db8fe803bf8119ebb6723d1a47?width=6

  5. 47 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

    Interesting.

    Although I don't see how US wholesale prices increasing 8.6% means that UK consumer prices can't have increased 3.1%, or that business are experiencing 25% inflation.

     

    OK. But it's an important data point. Clearly, there's a lot of inflation about in wholesale markets. That must negatively impact the UK economy going forward.

    Even more so if Sterling tanks over the next six months.

     

    Pound Sterling at Risk of "Turbocharged" Drop Following November Rate Hike: Spectra's Donnelly

    • Modified: Thursday, 21 October 2021 06:37 BST

    https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/16087-turbocharged-drop-pound-to-euro-and-pound-to-dollar

    ... Donnelly notes that market expectations for a frantic pace of rate rises in 2020 are off the mark.

    Indeed, money market pricing shows the Bank Rate could be at 1.0% by the end of 2022, which is unlikely given the Bank will have at this point started altering its quantitative balance sheet.

    As such, "there is a good chance the Bank of England meeting sounds dovish as the hikes are characterized as “front-loaded” or “insurance”. That’s not super currency positive. And the entry point here is not bad!" Says Donnelly.

    Pound Sterling Live's editorial team finds a significant majority of foreign exchange market professionals are highly skeptical of the Pound's recent gains and the ability of the Bank of England to deliver rate rises.

    We have noted these views in a number of recent publications.

     

     

  6. 14 hours ago, scottbeard said:

    I mean I can't disprove that because you could be buying things I don't - but what on Earth is going up 25%?!

    This month for example I renewed my TV Licence (1% higher), my childcare costs have gone up (6.5% higher) my breakdown cover last month was unchanged (0%) .... I will admit I don't really keep tabs on what I spend on food.  But my own experience finds it very hard to understand where a total inflation rate of 25% would be coming from.

     

    US wholesale prices are up 8.6% yoy.

     

    US wholesale prices rose record 8.6% over 12 months

    Inflation at the wholesale level rose 8.6% in September compared to a year ago, the largest advance since the 12-month change was first calculated in 2010.

    https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/us-wholesale-prices-rose-record-86-12-months-80578910

  7. 6 minutes ago, anonguest said:

    And you know this because....??  They say so?  Righhht.  OK. So it must be true then.

     

    There's no independent evidence to the contrary!

    Air pollution is back to what it was pre-Covid which suggests that the economy is operating at pretty much full capacity.

    Obvs, if the recent electricity shortages were to continue that might change again.

     

  8. 30 minutes ago, anonguest said:

    The Chinese are very serious about eliminating lots of things!  They (the CCP specifically) are just about the last people I look to as role models for almost anything.

    The ends do not always justify the means. I think you have lost sight of that old nugget of wisdom.

    Facts have to be faced. China has succeeded in eliminating Covid while the right-wing populists have failed calamitously.

  9. 9 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates

    Same publication shows a 13,000% discrepancy between Chinese official covid deaths and excess deaths.

    Conclusion ? Zero covid can work, provided you are prepared to claim you are doing it and ignore everyone that dies of it.

     

    Zero Covid has succeeded triumphantly wherever it's been adopted which is why you ducked the comparison I asked you to make up-thread.

     

     

  10. 17 hours ago, anonguest said:

    I see you're still quoting and unquestioningly believing China, their official stats and anything they say, to support your various stances/arguments.  You're a gullible fool to do so.

     

    You need to corroborate those stats independently, of course, as you would with any govt.

    The Chinese are very serious about eliminating Covid-19.

    20211016_CNC639.png

    https://www.economist.com/china/2021/10/16/how-long-can-chinas-zero-covid-policy-last

    FROM THE outside, it resembles an army base, an expanse the size of 45 football pitches filled with rows of austere, grey, three-storey buildings. The facility (pictured) on the outskirts of the southern city of Guangzhou is China’s first purpose-built quarantine centre for people arriving from abroad. Soon guests will begin moving in to its more than 5,000 rooms. For at least two weeks, whether fully vaccinated or not, they will live in isolation, their food brought to them by robots.

    Since the early days of the covid-19 pandemic, China’s aim has been to eliminate the coronavirus entirely from within the mainland’s borders. Hong Kong and Macau have similar strategies. But even as the handful of other countries with “zero-covid” policies, including Australia, New Zealand and Singapore, move to relax them, China is holding out.

    The point of Guangzhou’s $260m facility is to make it even harder for the virus to enter the country, by keeping people quarantined away from densely populated areas. People flying into the city from outside the mainland will be whisked there directly, instead of to normal hotels, for at least two weeks of confinement and frequent testing. Even the medical staff may not leave the premises. After working there for four weeks, they must do a week of quarantine and then, after returning home, spend another two weeks in isolation.

    Chinese officials describe the complex as the latest example of “China speed”: it took just three months to build. Another dedicated quarantine centre (unlike Guangzhou’s, not built from scratch) is also due to open soon in the nearby city of Dongguan. It will have 2,000 beds. Officials have ordered cities elsewhere to follow suit. In September, at a training session for medical staff in Guangzhou’s facility, an official tried to fire them up with a well-known term used by Mao Zedong to describe a relentless, long-lasting campaign to wear down the enemy with guerrilla attacks. It would be a “protracted war” against the virus, he said. “It can only end when the disease is no longer around.”

    20211016_CNP001_0.jpg

  11. 14 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

    I won't bother answering that because I don't see that anything I said had to do with that in the first place.

    The point I was refuting was that Britain was "accelerating away as the Sick Man of Europe". It clearly isn't - although I wouldn't claim it is doing great either.

     

    Second worst in Europe after Hungary isn't much of a boast.

  12. 1 hour ago, dpg50000 said:

    Willing to bet there's props for the housing market announced that more than offset the, at best, token rise the BOE implement in the next 18 months.

     

    His criminal associates have done it for him already. 👇

     

     
    Barclays has added enhanced income multiples of 5.5 times earnings to its 85 per cent loan to value (LTV) mortgage range.

    Previously, the LTV cap for 5.5 times income multiples was 80 per cent LTV.

    To qualify for the improved multiple on a capital and interest mortgage, at least one applicant must have gross annual income of £75,000 or more, or the two highest earning borrowers must have a combined gross annual income of £100,000 or more.

    A further relaxation of income criteria has been applied at 85 per cent LTV for capital repayment mortgages. Borrowers can qualify for an income multiple of five times their earnings if the total combined gross annual income of the two highest earning applicants is £60,000 or more.

    Barclays will factor in annual bonus income to its affordability assessment for borrowers who are remortgaging.

  13. 1 hour ago, robson1111 said:

    Yes he did and good on him for that

    he still said that any Afghan who wanted to come to the uk Should be able to do so 

     

    And if Corbs had been listened to twenty years ago there'd have been no Afghan refugees.

    You're also misrepresenting what he actually said.

     

    https://labouroutlook.org/2021/08/19/now-is-the-time-for-a-sober-reflection-on-the-disaster-that-has-happened-in-afghanistan-jeremy-corbyn/

    First, we have all been inundated overnight and in the past couple of days with emails from constituents and many others who are very worried about the plight of those who are trying to get out of Afghanistan, the numbers of people who ought to be supported and the approach that the British Government have taken. Members will have seen letters from the National Union of Journalists concerning journalists and their safety, from the University College Union concerning their students in this country and their fears, and from many, many others, including people representing trade unions in Afghanistan.

    As well as that, I ask the Government clearly what their strategy is for allowing people to come to this country, because it is clear that all those who have worked for the British Army or any other organisation in Afghanistan should be allowed to come here. That is the case, likewise, for non-governmental organisations, but I would add to that those who have worked for contractors that have been contracted to the British or American services. They will be just as vulnerable in the future.

     

  14. 31 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

    I have.

    In deaths per million population which to me is the most reasonable measure, there are 15 european countries ahead of us (although mostly smaller ones). Italy and Belgium are still ahead of us, but we will probably pass them.

    Another 4 countries are pretty close to us in the stats, some of which will overtake us.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

    We haven't done great, but we are by no means the worst. We will never catch up with the likes of Hungary unless the virus mutates in some dramatic way.

    Romania is currently in a much worse state than we are :

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/romania-reports-record-number-deaths-covid-19-infections-2021-10-19/

     

    Victor Orban's Hungary?

    Orban, Bolso, Trumpy, Putin, Bozo... Oh, Superman!

    How about Zero Covid China, New Zealand and Taiwan? How do they compare?

     

    Take your time. I've got a minute.

  15. 1 hour ago, Horseradish said:

    This one is a myth though? It's net additions that you have to look at. Reading amm Ian Mulheirn's blogs is probably the easiest way to get a comprehensive overview: https://medium.com/@ian.mulheirn/part-1-is-there-really-a-housing-shortage-89fdc6bac4d2

     

    Note: Ian Mulheirn who wrote these blogs is Chairman of the Board of Generation Rent, and the Resolution Foundation has published his work, too https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/two-housing-crises/. So many of the organisations referenced in your post agree that there's no housing shortage! (but there is a huge problem with house price inflation, which is caused by loose interest rate policy, which even the Bank of England publically agrees at this point: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2019/uk-house-prices-and-three-decades-of-decline-in-the-risk-free-real-interest-rate

     

    Mulheirn is a fool. There are 4 million young Britons age 18-40 priced out of the market and still living in the family home unable to buy or unwilling to finance a usurious rent.

    As for the Bank of England? Not one of its economists had the first idea that the Great Financial Crash was about to happen in 2008!

    Mainstream economics is a degenerate research program and has been since the 1960s. Mathematised ideology masquerading as science.

  16. 9 minutes ago, robson1111 said:

    Yes but this is what Labour want Corbyn said any afghan who wants to come to the uk should be given entry

    If you work hard in the UK but cannot afford to buy a house no one give a shit 

    Come here having never paid a penny tax and with no job skill and you get a free house

     

    No-one voted more times in Parliament against the UK's involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq than Jeremy Corbyn. Not on the Tory side or the govt side.

  17. There's no such thing as a good landlord. 👊

     

    https://www.huckmag.com/perspectives/opinion-perspectives/there-is-no-such-thing-as-a-good-landlord/

    Research by Heriot Watt University found a housing need of 4.7 million across Britain, requiring 340,000 new homes to be built every year until 2031 to make up the shortfall. Last year, we only built 160,100. In fact, house-building is at its lowest peacetime level since the 1920s. This deficit is fantastic news if you’re a prospective landlord: rudimentary economics follows that if supply doesn’t meet demand (and turns out people will always want shelter), the value of property increases. The potential for property to generate wealth by being let also significantly increases its value. The more additional homes bought by landlords, the more the housing stock becomes depleted. The more unaffordable property becomes to an increasing number of the population, the more have no option but to rent, and to accept market rent.

    The entire system is weighted in favour of those with the means to become landlords. The more they artificially restrict the supply of an essential component of living, the more money they make. Research shows the average buy-to-let landlord earns more than twice the average national salary. Even if their rental yield amounts to less than expected, they still have an asset – which will have likely continued to appreciate in value – making it as close to a no-risk investment as you can get.

    At the same time, according to Shelter, the UK has 320,000 people rendered homeless. There are 131,269 children classified as either homeless or living in temporary accommodation (roughly one in every 103 children.) While the threat of homelessness is an aberration on our society, it’s a positive boon if you’re a landlord – an entirely effective means of forcing tenants to accept absurd rents for dreadful unsafe box rooms. If 1.15 million people are already on waiting lists for social housing, if the construction of social housing has dropped 80 per cent in a decade to just 6,463 last year, if the average house price is eight times the UK average wage (and as high as 14 times that in London), then what choice do you have?

    ...

    The Resolution Foundation predicts that half of all people born between 1981 and 2000 will be renting well into middle-age, and a third as retirees. BBC research found that the number of private tenants between the age of 35-54 has already nearly doubled over the last decade. These sound like things to be pessimistic about, but they also signal a tipping point on the horizon. Property speculators think their investments will be protected forever. They are gambling that moves which could curtail house prices – drastic increases in social housing, housebuilding, legitimately ‘affordable’ homes, the introduction of rent controls, enshrining of tenants’ rights, land value tax, inflation targets – will never be pursued, because the property market is so tightly intertwined with our economic model, that to jeopardise it would risk tanking the whole thing. And that’s perhaps true. But there will come a time in the not-too-distant future when millennials are middle-aged, and the generations below will be even more at the mercy of the property market. An overwhelming majority of the electorate will find themselves unable to ever afford property, while being asked to maintain an inhumane feudal economy which functions by perpetuating poverty over them. It’s an accelerationist thought, but it will hopefully be the harbinger of radical change. We can already see signs in the recent surge in support for organising groups like Acorn, Generation Rent and the London Renter’s Union.

    In their 1979 book, Poor People’s Movements: Why They Succeed, Why They Fail, Frances Fox Piven and Richard A. Cloward write: “For a protest movement to arise out of traumas of daily life, the social arrangements that are ordinarily perceived as just and immutable must come to seem both unjust and mutable.”

    There are no good landlords.

  18.  

    Halifax are relapsing relaxing.

     

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/banks-pull-cheapest-ever-mortgages-homeowners-warned-rising/

    Halifax has relaxed mortgage borrowing rules for millions of wealthy homebuyers in a bet that the property market will remain resilient despite the threat of rising interest rates.

    Britain’s biggest housing lender will now hand borrowers who earn more than £75,000 a loan of up to five-and-a-half times their annual income, up from a previous limit of five times.

    Analysts said the decision was a sign that Halifax is not expecting house prices to fall if the Bank of England acts to containing rising inflation, with Threadneedle Street expected to increase interest rates as soon as next month.

    Lenders have also started to pull the cheapest mortgage deals off the market in an effort to get ahead of the rate increase.

    Andrew Wishart, an analyst at Capital Economics, said that although the moves might seem contradictory, in fact they show that lenders were not concerned about the market.

    He said: “Banks bolstered their profit margins when the base rate fell to 0.1pc and house prices didn’t fall, as they expected. This has kept lenders confident in the face of interest rate increases.”

    More lenders are likely to follow suit by relaxing income rules, he added.

    The gap between house prices and incomes has soared in the wake of the Covid crisis, which triggered a property boom fuelled by Rishi Sunak’s temporary cut to stamp duty and a stampede for green space by locked-down families. 

    Halifax’s own data shows the average home now costs eight times the average wage, the biggest gap since it started collecting records in 2011.

  19. 11 minutes ago, shlomo said:

    Sir Ian Blair also said this when he said why the met did not want to use phone evidence, I was actually watching coronation street yesterday where the baddie was on the phone saying he wanted a car to collect him to take an aircraft so he could escape justice.

    But then this is the narrative they wish to promote 

    The problem isn't getting the evidence but washing it so it can be presented in a court of law outside the Triple Fence.

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